3 ms·
It almost feels like length of ownership should be more determinative of price movements than anything else. >> Length of ownership AND relatedly original cost
by somethoughts 4y ago
It almost feels like length of ownership should be more determinative of price movements than anything else.
>> Length of ownership AND relatedly original cost basis. I think a lot of stocks can seem to defy gravity (i.e. high PE and/or high P/FCF) when the founder and the early investors HODL stocks. At $0.0001 per share, HODLing (in say TSLA, META, MSFT, BTC) is easy since there is/was no upfront capital paid in and holding has essentially no cost basis - so there's no need to act like rationally like a later stage investor.
>> Founders and early investors can easily own up to 30-50% of the company and really its only when the founder retires/starts diversifying and the founder and early investors start to unload - does price discovery occur on the entirety of the shares outstanding.[1][2][3]
[1] Mark Zuckerberg Sold Facebook Stock Nearly Every Weekday Last Year For Almost 11 Months https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2022/01/06/mark-zuckerberg-sold-facebook-stock-nearly-every-weekday-last-year-for-almost-11-months/?sh=5570993f3f71 https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2022/01/06/mark-z...
[2] https://techcrunch.com/2013/02/15/zuckerberg-now-owns-29-3-percent-of-facebook-representing-18-billion/ https://techcrunch.com/2013/02/15/zuckerberg-now-owns-29-3-p...
[2] Amazon founder Jeff Bezos decreased his stake to 24% from 42% in the first nine years after IPO.
- dd36 4y agoAgree. I think that fully explains all of TSLA’s movement. Mostly HODL but then Elon had to sell into light purchasing. Since he stopped, purchasing again outpaces selling so we get a steady rise.