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Metaverse is a $20 Trillion market by 2035. Only Apple and Meta are the true players who are all in. Even if Apple captures some high-end market, Meta has the

Metaverse is a $20 Trillion market by 2035. Only Apple and Meta are the true players who are all in. Even if Apple captures some high-end market, Meta has the opportunity to sweep the rest

ipsum2 4y ago
That's a ridiculous forecast.
- kibwen 4y ago
  Modern investing isn't about evaluating a company's products or services, it's about making increasingly-outrageous claims in order to take advantage of the human tendency to fail to exercise skepticism for sufficently-outrageous lies. The goal is to create a fanatical religion of financial death-cultists who will endlessly proselytize in the pursuit of a promised "to the moon" event, in the same way that Heaven's Gate believed that UFOs would swoop down and take them to heaven. So, indeed, by 2035 we can accurately predict that half of all global GDP will be in Facebook, half will be in Tesla, the other half will be tied up in Bitcoin, and the rest of the world economy (who probably aren't doing anything important anyway) will fight over the fourth half.
  - deltree7 4y ago
    World GDP by 2035 is $200 Trillion People conservatively will live in a Metaverse an average of 4 hours or 25% of their waking day or $50 Trillion of it. Even if you are conservative, Metaverse is a $30 Trillion opportunity. Ignore at your own peril
    - rsynnott 4y ago
      … Why would they do that, tho? Like, the real world exists, just outside the door. I think VR advocates possibly are inclined to overestimate just how much people will like VR. It seems fairly plausible that it remains a niche hobby.
      - deltree7 4y ago
        Yep, you sound like the same person who dismissed internet at 9600 baud because you lack the imagination of what the internet would look like at 1Gbps
    - ben_w 4y ago
      25% of time != 25% of economic value. There's 122 waking hours in a week, so by way of example: the USA's workforce of 155 million (much smaller than the population as a whole) does an average of 35 hours per week, which means the entire productive output of the economy is squeezed into 12.9% of the entire population's waking hours. Some of the non-productive time involves other people getting paid, but (excluding taxes and rent which I don't think make a difference in this scenario) not all of it. Also think about how Linux and Wikipedia are free even if your internet connection and device(s) aren't.
      - deltree7 4y ago
        The only thing you need the outside world is food (including healthcare) and a climate controlled 20 x 20 room with plumbing. everything else can and will be simulated.
- coffeebeqn 4y ago
  It’s obviously going to be $21T
gen220 4y ago
Do you think Metaverse ad revenue will not cannibalize social media revenue, as people shift their attention from one to the other? Or that Metaverse attention will somehow be 100x as valuable as social media attention (current global social media revenue is $200ishbn)?
- deltree7 4y ago
  Bingo! At the end of the day, attention is all that matters and the most valuable commodity. Current social media captures only 10% of all human experiences that are possible in the Metaverse. We haven't even fully tapped 7 Billion people's productivity and wealth (even in the current mobile world). So, the potential is 200b * 1000 in about 13 years
  - kderbyma 4y ago
    but where does the 500x come from? 2x for population....and then you assume that social media is 10% of the world experience....not by reckoning. they capture....a pittance of the experience. they are like wakes in the wave....the wave is the experience, the wake is social media. Due to attention issues and limits on multitasking...how much can we honestly expand...c'mon. 10x sure....maybe even 20x....so a 4T market?
    - deltree7 4y ago
      Don't forget World GDP is also expanding. Don't forget productivity of the Rest of the World will catch up with US (and making each attention second more valuable to the advertisers) Don't forget most activities will go to Metaverse. Finally, get out of Mobile-Phones-will-capture-all-long-distance-calls-revenue framework
chollida1 4y ago
> Metaverse is a $20 Trillion market by 2035. That's about the current US GDP.
- deltree7 4y ago
  World GDP by 2035 is $200 Trillion People will spend at least 4 hours or 25% of their waking hours in Metaverse (It'll be more, but I'm being conservative), at least $20 Trillion of human activity will occur in Metaverse (because bits are cheaper than atoms)
  - chollida1 4y ago
    Well that is a thesis. I disagree with most of your thesis, though world gdp at $200T i do agree with. But I appreciate you trying to lay it out, i'd say metaverse spending will be less than 2% at that time. Most of the world wont' even be near the meta verse in 10 years.
    - deltree7 4y ago
      This is absolutely coming from a privileged view. Rich people who can take vacations, go to concerts, eat at restaurants, hang out with friends, afford to play golf, tennis and a decent home of course want to live in the real world. There are 7 Billion other people who would love to have that same experience even if it's virtual for the same price as a mobile phone.
      - chollida1 4y ago
        I don’t think your view is all that privileged. I just simply disagree that poor people will spend money in any meaningful way in the meta verse. I mean think this through, you can’t even pay for the basics of life like food and shelter, and you’re going to dump 25% of your spending on the meta verse? I mean, I’m guessing you don’t yet have a family as once you do you’ll realize you’ll spend most of your money providing for them and not on virtual fun.

Metaverse is a $20 Trillion market by 2035. Only Apple and Meta are the true players who are all in. Even if Apple captures some high-end market, Meta has the opportunity to sweep the rest

ipsum2 4y ago

That's a ridiculous forecast.

kibwen 4y ago
Modern investing isn't about evaluating a company's products or services, it's about making increasingly-outrageous claims in order to take advantage of the human tendency to fail to exercise skepticism for sufficently-outrageous lies. The goal is to create a fanatical religion of financial death-cultists who will endlessly proselytize in the pursuit of a promised "to the moon" event, in the same way that Heaven's Gate believed that UFOs would swoop down and take them to heaven. So, indeed, by 2035 we can accurately predict that half of all global GDP will be in Facebook, half will be in Tesla, the other half will be tied up in Bitcoin, and the rest of the world economy (who probably aren't doing anything important anyway) will fight over the fourth half.
- deltree7 4y ago
  World GDP by 2035 is $200 Trillion People conservatively will live in a Metaverse an average of 4 hours or 25% of their waking day or $50 Trillion of it. Even if you are conservative, Metaverse is a $30 Trillion opportunity. Ignore at your own peril
  - rsynnott 4y ago
    … Why would they do that, tho? Like, the real world exists, just outside the door. I think VR advocates possibly are inclined to overestimate just how much people will like VR. It seems fairly plausible that it remains a niche hobby.
    - deltree7 4y ago
      Yep, you sound like the same person who dismissed internet at 9600 baud because you lack the imagination of what the internet would look like at 1Gbps
  - ben_w 4y ago
    25% of time != 25% of economic value. There's 122 waking hours in a week, so by way of example: the USA's workforce of 155 million (much smaller than the population as a whole) does an average of 35 hours per week, which means the entire productive output of the economy is squeezed into 12.9% of the entire population's waking hours. Some of the non-productive time involves other people getting paid, but (excluding taxes and rent which I don't think make a difference in this scenario) not all of it. Also think about how Linux and Wikipedia are free even if your internet connection and device(s) aren't.
    - deltree7 4y ago
      The only thing you need the outside world is food (including healthcare) and a climate controlled 20 x 20 room with plumbing. everything else can and will be simulated.
coffeebeqn 4y ago
It’s obviously going to be $21T

gen220 4y ago

Do you think Metaverse ad revenue will not cannibalize social media revenue, as people shift their attention from one to the other? Or that Metaverse attention will somehow be 100x as valuable as social media attention (current global social media revenue is $200ishbn)?

deltree7 4y ago
Bingo! At the end of the day, attention is all that matters and the most valuable commodity. Current social media captures only 10% of all human experiences that are possible in the Metaverse. We haven't even fully tapped 7 Billion people's productivity and wealth (even in the current mobile world). So, the potential is 200b * 1000 in about 13 years
- kderbyma 4y ago
  but where does the 500x come from? 2x for population....and then you assume that social media is 10% of the world experience....not by reckoning. they capture....a pittance of the experience. they are like wakes in the wave....the wave is the experience, the wake is social media. Due to attention issues and limits on multitasking...how much can we honestly expand...c'mon. 10x sure....maybe even 20x....so a 4T market?
  - deltree7 4y ago
    Don't forget World GDP is also expanding. Don't forget productivity of the Rest of the World will catch up with US (and making each attention second more valuable to the advertisers) Don't forget most activities will go to Metaverse. Finally, get out of Mobile-Phones-will-capture-all-long-distance-calls-revenue framework

chollida1 4y ago

> Metaverse is a $20 Trillion market by 2035. That's about the current US GDP.

deltree7 4y ago
World GDP by 2035 is $200 Trillion People will spend at least 4 hours or 25% of their waking hours in Metaverse (It'll be more, but I'm being conservative), at least $20 Trillion of human activity will occur in Metaverse (because bits are cheaper than atoms)
- chollida1 4y ago
  Well that is a thesis. I disagree with most of your thesis, though world gdp at $200T i do agree with. But I appreciate you trying to lay it out, i'd say metaverse spending will be less than 2% at that time. Most of the world wont' even be near the meta verse in 10 years.
  - deltree7 4y ago
    This is absolutely coming from a privileged view. Rich people who can take vacations, go to concerts, eat at restaurants, hang out with friends, afford to play golf, tennis and a decent home of course want to live in the real world. There are 7 Billion other people who would love to have that same experience even if it's virtual for the same price as a mobile phone.
    - chollida1 4y ago
      I don’t think your view is all that privileged. I just simply disagree that poor people will spend money in any meaningful way in the meta verse. I mean think this through, you can’t even pay for the basics of life like food and shelter, and you’re going to dump 25% of your spending on the meta verse? I mean, I’m guessing you don’t yet have a family as once you do you’ll realize you’ll spend most of your money providing for them and not on virtual fun.