7 ms·

I'm extremely worried. This tech is going to replace a lot of jobs in the next 10-20, including ours ( software ). And if not replace, it's going to cut the a

I'm extremely worried. This tech is going to replace a lot of jobs in the next 10-20, including ours ( software ). And if not replace, it's going to cut the available positions drastically. We already have a great divide between those with money and those without and this is a nuclear bomb about to go off. Without any sort of UBI or social safety nets, this is going to be a true disaster.

moab 4y ago
> including software highly unlikely. You should be concerned if you are just plumbing between different software stacks, but even that is likely hard to fully automate.
- Kiro 4y ago
  You underestimate how powerful it already is. Have you tried Copilot or coding with ChatGPT? If this is the very first iteration it won't be long before many developers are fully replaced.
  - SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
    Aren't they just as likely to go sideways and build exactly the wrong thing? If all else fails a lot of a software dev's day to day will be a Chat wrangler where we still need the skills to determine why it's going wrong, which is a big part of the dev skill stack. Maybe it'll make us more productive, but in my experience, the software building doesn't stop until budget runs out. They'll still need devs.
    - anonyfox 4y ago
      They will go the wrong directions, too, but in 2 seconds instead of 2 week sprints. And the feedback loop to keep them on track can be automated, too … making current devs the next generation of PMs (prompt managers)
  - rm_-rf_slash 4y ago
    Generative code models trained on buggy, unmaintainable code snippets resulting in a buggy, unmaintainable codebase that only the model can manage. Genius.
    - throwaway4aday 4y ago
      Exec: Fix the login bug in production. ChatGPT: There is no login bug in production. Exec: Yes there is, run the login integration test. ChatGPT: The test passes. Exec: But I can't log in! ChatGPT: Works for me.
      - qorrect 4y ago
        So life like.
  - newguynewphone 4y ago
    I had a partner that was being charged about 8k$ to solve a ruby problem that copilot answered with a couple of prompts (took a couple of hours but still..) I'm pretty certain that unless you are in machine learning, your job will be replaced soon enough
    - DoesntMatter22 4y ago
      It seems likely that the nature of a programmer will change. You will just be wiring things together and fixing bugs. Eventually ai will do that too but it'll be a few years. Still, the writing is on the wall
    - idiotsecant 4y ago
      The hard part of programming was always gathering requirements accurately and architecting a solution to meet those requirements. All this does is automate out the easier parts. (Almost) nobody is hand-crafting screws and nails anymore. It doesn't mean that those people don't have something to do, we just produce many more screws and nails at a much higher quality than before. The people do other things at a higher level of abstraction. Now, eventually, general purpose strong AI will emerge that is capable of filling those roles that occupy the higher level abstraction niches. Once that happens we're entering a phase change in how cognition works in our little corner of the universe, and all bets are off.
      - throwaway4aday 4y ago
        Exactly, nail making used to be a profession in itself so much that there is a German surname Nagelmacher which is literally Nail Maker. Don't see many of them around nowadays unless they own a factory that produces nails.
    - purple_ferret 4y ago
      People still pay biglaw lawyers hundreds if not thousands an hr to check for correct comma placement in documents. Can easily be replaced by why hasn't it been?
  - jonfw 4y ago
    This is not the very first iteration. Watson, an LLM, won jeopardy years ago. This stuff has been in progress for a very long time This is a great benchmark, in that it's widely available, user friendly, and competent enough that people are finding new use cases for it. I don't want to take away from how great it is- it is phenomenal, but it's one of many big benchmarks in AI
    - rerx 4y ago
      The Jeopardy winning Watson wasn't a large language model (LLM) as it is understood today. That technology didn't exist at the time. It was more of an expert system.
  - DoesntMatter22 4y ago
    People are seriously in denial about how powerful this is. As you said this is just the beginning
    - zarzavat 4y ago
      It's difficult to get someone to understand something when their salary depends upon not understanding it. HN loves to quote this, but when the dung hits the propeller, many can't see that they are just as expendable as anyone else.
      - DoesntMatter22 4y ago
        I kinda like it honestly. Programmers have been so high on the hog, earning doctors salaries and thinking they are this special class of people where their jobs are totally unassailable. I know many who were earning 200k and have nearly no savings. I don't think this will eliminate all jobs in the short term but it's going to have an impact very quickly. Hope these people are saving up
        purple_ferret 4y ago
        >Programmers have been so high on the hog, earning doctors salaries and thinking they are this special class of people where their jobs are totally unassailable What makes you think doctors can't be replaced too? Just have a PA measure vitals, take down symptoms, etc and run it all through ChatGPT and let ChatGPT make the recommendation/diagnosis.. Studies will show ChatGPT produces better outcomes and it will be considered inhumane to see a real doctor, not to mention your insurance will start covering only ChatGPT visits!
        DoesntMatter22 4y ago
        Never did I say that Doctors won't be replaced. Doctors go to college for 8 years though. I know many developers who had no college and were making 100K plus within a year but treated that like it was a right. Programming made me wealthy and I appreciate that, the ones who DIDN'T appreciate that it was a gold rush and they should have treated it as such are the ones who will suffer the most.
  - shellfishgene 4y ago
    Well, it may also go the way of self-driving cars, where it can almost replace most drivers, but not really as a few fatal accidents here and there are not acceptable. Maybe the AI could write 95% of our companies code, but would you risk it if there is a high chance that it makes the production server crash once a month or codes up a security hole that leaks your customers data once a year?
  - conradkay 4y ago
    Programmer productivity has been going up for as long as programming has existed.
- kaibee 4y ago
  > You should be concerned if you are just plumbing between different software stacks, but even that is likely hard to fully automate. Ah ok so just most software developers.
Kiro 4y ago
That sounds awesome. I'm not worried things will sort itself out, just like happened with the industrial revolution. There will be some initial friction but in the long run it will be a massive net positive for humanity. Why should we waste manpower on something a machine can do?
- qorrect 4y ago
  Lots of people went hungry during the industrial revolution, couldn't get a job people starved. It's going to be awesome for those looking back on it, for us living through it ... it's going to suck.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
throwaway4aday 4y ago
Imagine your average client/C suite manager. Now imagine them copy pasting code returned from their half-baked description of the problem domain onto a production server.

moab 4y ago

> including software highly unlikely. You should be concerned if you are just plumbing between different software stacks, but even that is likely hard to fully automate.

Kiro 4y ago
You underestimate how powerful it already is. Have you tried Copilot or coding with ChatGPT? If this is the very first iteration it won't be long before many developers are fully replaced.
- SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
  Aren't they just as likely to go sideways and build exactly the wrong thing? If all else fails a lot of a software dev's day to day will be a Chat wrangler where we still need the skills to determine why it's going wrong, which is a big part of the dev skill stack. Maybe it'll make us more productive, but in my experience, the software building doesn't stop until budget runs out. They'll still need devs.
  - anonyfox 4y ago
    They will go the wrong directions, too, but in 2 seconds instead of 2 week sprints. And the feedback loop to keep them on track can be automated, too … making current devs the next generation of PMs (prompt managers)
- rm_-rf_slash 4y ago
  Generative code models trained on buggy, unmaintainable code snippets resulting in a buggy, unmaintainable codebase that only the model can manage. Genius.
  - throwaway4aday 4y ago
    Exec: Fix the login bug in production. ChatGPT: There is no login bug in production. Exec: Yes there is, run the login integration test. ChatGPT: The test passes. Exec: But I can't log in! ChatGPT: Works for me.
    - qorrect 4y ago
      So life like.
- newguynewphone 4y ago
  I had a partner that was being charged about 8k$ to solve a ruby problem that copilot answered with a couple of prompts (took a couple of hours but still..) I'm pretty certain that unless you are in machine learning, your job will be replaced soon enough
  - DoesntMatter22 4y ago
    It seems likely that the nature of a programmer will change. You will just be wiring things together and fixing bugs. Eventually ai will do that too but it'll be a few years. Still, the writing is on the wall
  - idiotsecant 4y ago
    The hard part of programming was always gathering requirements accurately and architecting a solution to meet those requirements. All this does is automate out the easier parts. (Almost) nobody is hand-crafting screws and nails anymore. It doesn't mean that those people don't have something to do, we just produce many more screws and nails at a much higher quality than before. The people do other things at a higher level of abstraction. Now, eventually, general purpose strong AI will emerge that is capable of filling those roles that occupy the higher level abstraction niches. Once that happens we're entering a phase change in how cognition works in our little corner of the universe, and all bets are off.
    - throwaway4aday 4y ago
      Exactly, nail making used to be a profession in itself so much that there is a German surname Nagelmacher which is literally Nail Maker. Don't see many of them around nowadays unless they own a factory that produces nails.
  - purple_ferret 4y ago
    People still pay biglaw lawyers hundreds if not thousands an hr to check for correct comma placement in documents. Can easily be replaced by why hasn't it been?
- jonfw 4y ago
  This is not the very first iteration. Watson, an LLM, won jeopardy years ago. This stuff has been in progress for a very long time This is a great benchmark, in that it's widely available, user friendly, and competent enough that people are finding new use cases for it. I don't want to take away from how great it is- it is phenomenal, but it's one of many big benchmarks in AI
  - rerx 4y ago
    The Jeopardy winning Watson wasn't a large language model (LLM) as it is understood today. That technology didn't exist at the time. It was more of an expert system.
- DoesntMatter22 4y ago
  People are seriously in denial about how powerful this is. As you said this is just the beginning
  - zarzavat 4y ago
    It's difficult to get someone to understand something when their salary depends upon not understanding it. HN loves to quote this, but when the dung hits the propeller, many can't see that they are just as expendable as anyone else.
    - DoesntMatter22 4y ago
      I kinda like it honestly. Programmers have been so high on the hog, earning doctors salaries and thinking they are this special class of people where their jobs are totally unassailable. I know many who were earning 200k and have nearly no savings. I don't think this will eliminate all jobs in the short term but it's going to have an impact very quickly. Hope these people are saving up
      - purple_ferret 4y ago
        >Programmers have been so high on the hog, earning doctors salaries and thinking they are this special class of people where their jobs are totally unassailable What makes you think doctors can't be replaced too? Just have a PA measure vitals, take down symptoms, etc and run it all through ChatGPT and let ChatGPT make the recommendation/diagnosis.. Studies will show ChatGPT produces better outcomes and it will be considered inhumane to see a real doctor, not to mention your insurance will start covering only ChatGPT visits!
        DoesntMatter22 4y ago
        Never did I say that Doctors won't be replaced. Doctors go to college for 8 years though. I know many developers who had no college and were making 100K plus within a year but treated that like it was a right. Programming made me wealthy and I appreciate that, the ones who DIDN'T appreciate that it was a gold rush and they should have treated it as such are the ones who will suffer the most.
- shellfishgene 4y ago
  Well, it may also go the way of self-driving cars, where it can almost replace most drivers, but not really as a few fatal accidents here and there are not acceptable. Maybe the AI could write 95% of our companies code, but would you risk it if there is a high chance that it makes the production server crash once a month or codes up a security hole that leaks your customers data once a year?
- conradkay 4y ago
  Programmer productivity has been going up for as long as programming has existed.
kaibee 4y ago
> You should be concerned if you are just plumbing between different software stacks, but even that is likely hard to fully automate. Ah ok so just most software developers.

Kiro 4y ago

That sounds awesome. I'm not worried things will sort itself out, just like happened with the industrial revolution. There will be some initial friction but in the long run it will be a massive net positive for humanity. Why should we waste manpower on something a machine can do?

qorrect 4y ago
Lots of people went hungry during the industrial revolution, couldn't get a job people starved. It's going to be awesome for those looking back on it, for us living through it ... it's going to suck.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

throwaway4aday 4y ago

Imagine your average client/C suite manager. Now imagine them copy pasting code returned from their half-baked description of the problem domain onto a production server.