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Market headed for a 'tinderbox-timebomb' worse than the 1929 crash
- fullshark 4y agoWell at least he’s open about the fact that he’s heavily shorting the sp500.
- jfengel 4y agoInteresting. The S&P 500's P/E is currently 22 -- high by long-term historical standards, but not an outrageous number. It corresponds to about a 3% interest rate. It doesn't sound like something ripe for a crash. Maybe it will fall to the long-term historical average of 15, which is a win, but it doesn't sound like the kind of get-rich-quick scheme you want from a high risk investment like shorting. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent -- the S&P seems like it's in a position to go up rather than down. I mean, hey, you get rich by placing the big bets. You short something, you get free cash to put elsewhere. Pick a winner and you can come out ahead even if the S&P 500 doesn't drop. But I don't have a strong stomach for that kind of risk.
- epistemer 4y agoThis is typical bad financial journalism. Spitznagel is not "predicting" this. Jennifer Sor either has no clue what Spitznagel is doing or knows no one will click on a headline about tail hedging unpredictable events.
- labrador 4y agoI tried following Taleb on Twitter a few times. He's either 10x smarter than I or a raving lunatic - can't decide which
- kjellsbells 4y agoWell, he could be 10x smarter /once/, and very wrong the rest of the time. This is a flaw in financial and business reporting: we tend to ascribe oracular powers to people who have been right once before which can blind us to analyzing their newer claims fairly.
- aliqot 4y agoI get this kinda of uncanny intelligence vs uncanny happenstance feeling too sometimes. Michael Bury comes to mind.
- nmfisher 4y agoIronically that is very close to his philosophy of antifragility - it doesn’t matter if you’re “right” nine times out of ten, if the tenth is the one that wipes you out.