4 ms·

> maybe Mirage 2000s Stopped being produced 15 years ago. > MiG-29 Ukraine can't get new ones. > Gripens Could be an option, but available only in low numb

by oblio 4y ago

> maybe Mirage 2000s Stopped being produced 15 years ago. > MiG-29 Ukraine can't get new ones. > Gripens Could be an option, but available only in low numbers. The Ukraine war will be won through stocks and new production. Ukraine can't afford a dead-end platform. Especially because "sending highly sophisticated jets that will take months to learn". The F-16 is probably the best option, still being made, but much more importantly, available in large numbers, thousands of them out there.

mschuster91 4y ago
> The Ukraine war will be won through stocks and new production. Or on the diplomatic table. While I agree it is a good thing to send Ukraine all we reasonably can, it is a nonzero probability Putin gets into hot water and ousted - bad health, pissed-off bureaucracy, domestic protests once he's forced to conscript people in central (ethnic) Russia.
- oblio 4y ago
  > Or on the diplomatic table. While I agree it is a good thing to send Ukraine all we reasonably can, it is a nonzero probability Putin gets into hot water and ousted - bad health, pissed-off bureaucracy, domestic protests once he's forced to conscript people in central (ethnic) Russia. Ukraine being a part of Russia is a mainstream opinion in Russia. It's a core part of Russian propaganda abroad and has been so since the 1800s (Novorossya). I'm not saying it's impossible, but a new leader will adopt many of the nationalist tropes. Russia completely leaving occupied territories, especially Crimea, diplomatically, will be extremely hard to do. And Ukraine without Crimea will always be exposed. It's too easy to choke off their maritime access without it.
  - mschuster91 4y ago
    The thing is, Russian economy is in shambles. The only major trading partners they have left is China and India... and the West won't ever open up unless Russia at the very least leaves the occupied territories, which leaves the Ukrainians free to focus on regaining Crimea.
    - oblio 4y ago
      Some countries can be hellbent on self-destruction if they feel their "national pride" is being offended. And European messaging is... strongly in favor of Ukraine but at reduced/no cost for Europe. So in practice European messaging is actually weak. There are quite a few big European economies that would want to open up the Russian economy again. Conflicting interests are still fighting it out and we can't be sure which side will out. It could very well be that the winning political side in the West says a chopped up Ukraine is sufficient at the end of this war. We'll see, it's super hard to predict.
    - sorenjan 4y ago
      Don't be so sure. Trump wants to "end the war" by cutting off help to Ukraine and force them to "negotiate" with Russia, i.e. surrender their territory. Orban is making things harder than necessary for EU to show a united front against Russia. Who knows what the political reality will be in a few years if the war continues then, too many wants things to go back to normal even if that means appeasing Putin.
    - Koshkin 4y ago
      > only… China and India For Russia at least, wouldn’t that be plenty enough to get by on?
- gpderetta 4y ago
  It is not a given that, if Putin is ousted, his replacement will stop the war. While there are factions that are not keen on the war (many of the oligarchs that have interest in trading with the west) , there are some others (the warlords) that are even more hawkish than Putin, and seeing as he is very careful to please them, they have a lot of power.
sofixa 4y ago
> Stopped being produced 15 years ago. Doesn't really matter when there are hundreds in stock (recently decommissioned or soon to be decommissioned) - they're faster to deliver than ones that are yet to be produced. > Ukraine can't get new ones. They don't need new ones, they need flying ones, yesterday. The proposed swaps with various NATO countries like Bulgaria sounded like the best option - Ukraine gets jets they can fly today, and the other country gets an upgrade for their help.

by oblio 4y ago

mschuster91 4y ago

> The Ukraine war will be won through stocks and new production. Or on the diplomatic table. While I agree it is a good thing to send Ukraine all we reasonably can, it is a nonzero probability Putin gets into hot water and ousted - bad health, pissed-off bureaucracy, domestic protests once he's forced to conscript people in central (ethnic) Russia.

oblio 4y ago
> Or on the diplomatic table. While I agree it is a good thing to send Ukraine all we reasonably can, it is a nonzero probability Putin gets into hot water and ousted - bad health, pissed-off bureaucracy, domestic protests once he's forced to conscript people in central (ethnic) Russia. Ukraine being a part of Russia is a mainstream opinion in Russia. It's a core part of Russian propaganda abroad and has been so since the 1800s (Novorossya). I'm not saying it's impossible, but a new leader will adopt many of the nationalist tropes. Russia completely leaving occupied territories, especially Crimea, diplomatically, will be extremely hard to do. And Ukraine without Crimea will always be exposed. It's too easy to choke off their maritime access without it.
- mschuster91 4y ago
  The thing is, Russian economy is in shambles. The only major trading partners they have left is China and India... and the West won't ever open up unless Russia at the very least leaves the occupied territories, which leaves the Ukrainians free to focus on regaining Crimea.
  - oblio 4y ago
    Some countries can be hellbent on self-destruction if they feel their "national pride" is being offended. And European messaging is... strongly in favor of Ukraine but at reduced/no cost for Europe. So in practice European messaging is actually weak. There are quite a few big European economies that would want to open up the Russian economy again. Conflicting interests are still fighting it out and we can't be sure which side will out. It could very well be that the winning political side in the West says a chopped up Ukraine is sufficient at the end of this war. We'll see, it's super hard to predict.
  - sorenjan 4y ago
    Don't be so sure. Trump wants to "end the war" by cutting off help to Ukraine and force them to "negotiate" with Russia, i.e. surrender their territory. Orban is making things harder than necessary for EU to show a united front against Russia. Who knows what the political reality will be in a few years if the war continues then, too many wants things to go back to normal even if that means appeasing Putin.
  - Koshkin 4y ago
    > only… China and India For Russia at least, wouldn’t that be plenty enough to get by on?
gpderetta 4y ago
It is not a given that, if Putin is ousted, his replacement will stop the war. While there are factions that are not keen on the war (many of the oligarchs that have interest in trading with the west) , there are some others (the warlords) that are even more hawkish than Putin, and seeing as he is very careful to please them, they have a lot of power.

sofixa 4y ago

> Stopped being produced 15 years ago. Doesn't really matter when there are hundreds in stock (recently decommissioned or soon to be decommissioned) - they're faster to deliver than ones that are yet to be produced. > Ukraine can't get new ones. They don't need new ones, they need flying ones, yesterday. The proposed swaps with various NATO countries like Bulgaria sounded like the best option - Ukraine gets jets they can fly today, and the other country gets an upgrade for their help.