5 ms·

Thank you for pointing this out. People's willingness to point out what they know about markets _for certain_, without being willing to actually make the bet,

by toby 18y ago

Thank you for pointing this out. People's willingness to point out what they know about markets _for certain_, without being willing to actually make the bet, has always amazed me. The truth is, if someone was 100% certain that the market would not recover from where it is, it's easy to bet on that without committing any capital and you'd even make the money if the market stayed exactly where it is. I see a quote on Dec 350 GOOG calls at $24. If you feel lucky, write ten contracts and take the $24,000... all you'll need is your broker to trust that you can cover the bet if you're wrong. It's ok to hedge your language, it's alright to admit you're guessing. The less often you make definitive statements, the less often you'll look like a fool in hindsight. And the less often you make definitive statements that exactly mirror a market position, the less often you'll look like a fool in foresight.

swombat 18y ago
"Bottom line: there is zero chance of a short or medium term-rebound. Zero." I don't see any claim about share prices there. He's talking about economic growth, consumer confidence, investor confidence, etc. Another way to say what he stated there is: "We're headed for a deep, long recession, and there's zero chance of it miraculously getting better in the short or even medium term." That's not a statement about share prices, it's a statement about the economy. Also, how do you know he doesn't have a bunch of shorts on the markets?
- toby 18y ago
  He does spend a paragraph before that talking about the state of the Dow and a lot later on how companies will manage their earnings, so I went with the parent posters interpretation. But you're right, I could have misinterpreted. Also, I don't know his trading positions. I just find these statements that are _so_ certain to be mildly irritating, when it's been clear for a while that no one really has a knows what is going on or how to fix it.
  - swombat 18y ago
    Granted, but the truth is, no one has any clue what's going on, ever. And yet, "Who the hell knows what will happen?", despite being always truthful, is not really good advice at any time. It doesn't matter what the state of the economy is - no one knows what will happen next.. if they did, they could make some good bets on the stock markets and become rich. All that anyone ever has is opinions. I think that opinion pieces would get tedious fairly quickly if they were constantly paraphrased with "imho"s...
    - ph0rque 18y ago
      > Granted, but the truth is, no one has any clue what's going on, ever. Hmmm... that sounds like a pretty absolute statement... is there any way to bet on that ;~)?
      - adrianwaj 18y ago
        You can but who can ever prove it. You have to have absolute knowledge to know if someone else has absolute knowledge. In the end you have to take people's words on things based on their acquired and intuitive knowledge.

by toby 18y ago

swombat 18y ago

"Bottom line: there is zero chance of a short or medium term-rebound. Zero." I don't see any claim about share prices there. He's talking about economic growth, consumer confidence, investor confidence, etc. Another way to say what he stated there is: "We're headed for a deep, long recession, and there's zero chance of it miraculously getting better in the short or even medium term." That's not a statement about share prices, it's a statement about the economy. Also, how do you know he doesn't have a bunch of shorts on the markets?

toby 18y ago
He does spend a paragraph before that talking about the state of the Dow and a lot later on how companies will manage their earnings, so I went with the parent posters interpretation. But you're right, I could have misinterpreted. Also, I don't know his trading positions. I just find these statements that are _so_ certain to be mildly irritating, when it's been clear for a while that no one really has a knows what is going on or how to fix it.
- swombat 18y ago
  Granted, but the truth is, no one has any clue what's going on, ever. And yet, "Who the hell knows what will happen?", despite being always truthful, is not really good advice at any time. It doesn't matter what the state of the economy is - no one knows what will happen next.. if they did, they could make some good bets on the stock markets and become rich. All that anyone ever has is opinions. I think that opinion pieces would get tedious fairly quickly if they were constantly paraphrased with "imho"s...
  - ph0rque 18y ago
    > Granted, but the truth is, no one has any clue what's going on, ever. Hmmm... that sounds like a pretty absolute statement... is there any way to bet on that ;~)?
    - adrianwaj 18y ago
      You can but who can ever prove it. You have to have absolute knowledge to know if someone else has absolute knowledge. In the end you have to take people's words on things based on their acquired and intuitive knowledge.