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Interesting contradictions. Some news publications say India's population will continue to grow, overtaking China. https://fortune.com/2023/01/17/india-china-p

Interesting contradictions. Some news publications say India's population will continue to grow, overtaking China. https://fortune.com/2023/01/17/india-china-population-decline-worlds-most-populous-country/amp/ https://fortune.com/2023/01/17/india-china-population-declin...

jchw 4y ago
That's not a contradiction: that linked article says that India may have already overtaken China, this post's article says that the fertility rate in India has dropped below replacement rate. The latter only signals the beginning of population decline; it hasn't actually started declining. China's population has been declining for a while because they have been below the replacement rate for a while.
vidarh 4y ago
It's not a contradiction. As the article points out, fertility rates dropping below replacement does not mean India's population starts dropping now, because the population change lags the fertility rate by a few decades (EDIT: For why this is the case, consider the combination of increasing life expectancies and a still growing population "bulge"; most deaths occur in age groups that consists of fewer people than the age groups currently having children) China's population, meanwhile, has started to drop.
kerpotgh 4y ago
It will continue to grow in the short term because there are currently women that have not reached fertility age yet. This is in the article. We will get to the peak in around 30 years at 1.6 billion.
ZeroGravitas 4y ago
The two things aren't in contradiction. India was forcast to peak at 1.7, now that forcast is lowered to 1.6 but still higher than China which is forcasts to already be at its peak, with 1.4 billion.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
s1artibartfast 4y ago
You are confusing population, it's first derivative (population growth) , and its second derivative (change in population growth).
shagie 4y ago
https://www.populationpyramid.net/india/2020/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/india/2020/ (which has predictions) Note the teardrop shape currently where most of the population is in the... lets call it "working, adult, productive" age bracket. In 2060, it will hit peak population, but you'll also note there that the population is now mostly in the 50s rather than 20s. That has significant impacts on governance and social services when the younger people are disproportionately caring for the older generation. If you look at China - https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2020/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2020/ You'll note that it is at peak, and declining, and that there is a different shape to the pyramid where there are even fewer people in their 20s and late teens which will be asked to bear an increasing amount of support of the older generation as that graph gets more top-heavy. Compare this with the US https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2020/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2... or France https://www.populationpyramid.net/france/2020/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/france/2020/ or Sweden https://www.populationpyramid.net/sweden/2020/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/sweden/2020/ or Canada https://www.populationpyramid.net/canada/2020/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/canada/2020/ and you'll see charts that represent a population that is better able to (in theory) support itself.

jchw 4y ago

That's not a contradiction: that linked article says that India may have already overtaken China, this post's article says that the fertility rate in India has dropped below replacement rate. The latter only signals the beginning of population decline; it hasn't actually started declining. China's population has been declining for a while because they have been below the replacement rate for a while.

vidarh 4y ago

It's not a contradiction. As the article points out, fertility rates dropping below replacement does not mean India's population starts dropping now, because the population change lags the fertility rate by a few decades (EDIT: For why this is the case, consider the combination of increasing life expectancies and a still growing population "bulge"; most deaths occur in age groups that consists of fewer people than the age groups currently having children) China's population, meanwhile, has started to drop.

kerpotgh 4y ago

It will continue to grow in the short term because there are currently women that have not reached fertility age yet. This is in the article. We will get to the peak in around 30 years at 1.6 billion.

ZeroGravitas 4y ago

The two things aren't in contradiction. India was forcast to peak at 1.7, now that forcast is lowered to 1.6 but still higher than China which is forcasts to already be at its peak, with 1.4 billion.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

s1artibartfast 4y ago

You are confusing population, it's first derivative (population growth) , and its second derivative (change in population growth).

shagie 4y ago

https://www.populationpyramid.net/india/2020/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/india/2020/ (which has predictions) Note the teardrop shape currently where most of the population is in the... lets call it "working, adult, productive" age bracket. In 2060, it will hit peak population, but you'll also note there that the population is now mostly in the 50s rather than 20s. That has significant impacts on governance and social services when the younger people are disproportionately caring for the older generation. If you look at China - https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2020/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2020/ You'll note that it is at peak, and declining, and that there is a different shape to the pyramid where there are even fewer people in their 20s and late teens which will be asked to bear an increasing amount of support of the older generation as that graph gets more top-heavy. Compare this with the US https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2020/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2... or France https://www.populationpyramid.net/france/2020/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/france/2020/ or Sweden https://www.populationpyramid.net/sweden/2020/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/sweden/2020/ or Canada https://www.populationpyramid.net/canada/2020/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/canada/2020/ and you'll see charts that represent a population that is better able to (in theory) support itself.