5 ms·

Given the worry over china and microchips, is anything being done about china's dominance of PV cell/wafer production? What happens if we get cut off?

toomuchtodo 4y ago
1/3 of domestic demand is already produced state side. https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/solar-manufacturing https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/solar-manufacturing Qcell is investing $2.5B in its Georgia manufacturing facility. https://www.georgia.org/press-release/qcells-more-double-production-georgia-create-2500-new-jobs https://www.georgia.org/press-release/qcells-more-double-pro... First Solar is investing $1.2B https://investor.firstsolar.com/news/press-release-details/2022/First-Solar-to-Invest-up-to-1.2-Billion-in-Scaling-Production-of-American-Made-Responsible-Solar-by-4.4-GW/default.aspx https://investor.firstsolar.com/news/press-release-details/2... Last year saw ~18GW of PV installed in the US. https://www.woodmac.com/industry/power-and-renewables/us-solar-market-insight/ https://www.woodmac.com/industry/power-and-renewables/us-sol... Renewables are projected to provide 25% of total US power generated in 2023. https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2023/01/renewables-are-likely-to-provide-25-of-us-electricity-in-2023/ https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2023/01/renewables-are... (we are at the hockey stick inflection point)
hef19898 4y ago
At least a couple of years ago, the machines needed for all of that came from Europe. China is cheaper due to scale and better silicium supply chains. We could move cell and panel manufacturing back to the US and Europe, if we were willing to accept higher prices. Which we don't, not in the US nor Europe. So, this move will happen when China goes to war woth Taiwan, not before.
- birdyrooster 4y ago
  And China can’t go to war with Taiwan until new pipelines are built into Siberia. Russia is still strong enough to stop China from outright taking it and a partnership to build those pipelines is still more than five years away to securing energy for Beijing which cannot be so easily blockaded as the Strait of Malacca.
  - hef19898 4y ago
    And if Ukraine showed the Chinese something, it is that an invasion if far, far from a walk in the park with a sure outcome.
    - ben_w 4y ago
      I'd have hoped the reference class for a superpower that doesn't like the politics of a small island just off its shores would be the disastrous failure of the Bay Of Pigs invasion of Cuba. But that may be optimistic. My reference class for the war against Ukraine is the war against Vietnam.
Xylakant 4y ago
It’s often compared to the energy dependency from Russia, but fundamentally it’s different. China cutting off supplies would cut off installing new capacity and repairs to existing in plants. It would however not stop existing solar panels from producing energy. Components for repair can be stockpiled much easier than oil, so the timeline until such a cutoff would affect existing energy production is substantially longer.
Schroedingersat 4y ago
PV lasts 25-50 years largely untended. The components are largely fungible. The overwhelming nmajority of production facilities began construction under 10 years ago. Not getting left in the dust cost-wise is a very good reason to expand production now (which the entire planet started doing last year), but nothing prevents building your own before it wears out.

toomuchtodo 4y ago

1/3 of domestic demand is already produced state side. https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/solar-manufacturing https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/solar-manufacturing Qcell is investing $2.5B in its Georgia manufacturing facility. https://www.georgia.org/press-release/qcells-more-double-production-georgia-create-2500-new-jobs https://www.georgia.org/press-release/qcells-more-double-pro... First Solar is investing $1.2B https://investor.firstsolar.com/news/press-release-details/2022/First-Solar-to-Invest-up-to-1.2-Billion-in-Scaling-Production-of-American-Made-Responsible-Solar-by-4.4-GW/default.aspx https://investor.firstsolar.com/news/press-release-details/2... Last year saw ~18GW of PV installed in the US. https://www.woodmac.com/industry/power-and-renewables/us-solar-market-insight/ https://www.woodmac.com/industry/power-and-renewables/us-sol... Renewables are projected to provide 25% of total US power generated in 2023. https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2023/01/renewables-are-likely-to-provide-25-of-us-electricity-in-2023/ https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2023/01/renewables-are... (we are at the hockey stick inflection point)

hef19898 4y ago

At least a couple of years ago, the machines needed for all of that came from Europe. China is cheaper due to scale and better silicium supply chains. We could move cell and panel manufacturing back to the US and Europe, if we were willing to accept higher prices. Which we don't, not in the US nor Europe. So, this move will happen when China goes to war woth Taiwan, not before.

birdyrooster 4y ago
And China can’t go to war with Taiwan until new pipelines are built into Siberia. Russia is still strong enough to stop China from outright taking it and a partnership to build those pipelines is still more than five years away to securing energy for Beijing which cannot be so easily blockaded as the Strait of Malacca.
- hef19898 4y ago
  And if Ukraine showed the Chinese something, it is that an invasion if far, far from a walk in the park with a sure outcome.
  - ben_w 4y ago
    I'd have hoped the reference class for a superpower that doesn't like the politics of a small island just off its shores would be the disastrous failure of the Bay Of Pigs invasion of Cuba. But that may be optimistic. My reference class for the war against Ukraine is the war against Vietnam.

Xylakant 4y ago

It’s often compared to the energy dependency from Russia, but fundamentally it’s different. China cutting off supplies would cut off installing new capacity and repairs to existing in plants. It would however not stop existing solar panels from producing energy. Components for repair can be stockpiled much easier than oil, so the timeline until such a cutoff would affect existing energy production is substantially longer.

Schroedingersat 4y ago

PV lasts 25-50 years largely untended. The components are largely fungible. The overwhelming nmajority of production facilities began construction under 10 years ago. Not getting left in the dust cost-wise is a very good reason to expand production now (which the entire planet started doing last year), but nothing prevents building your own before it wears out.