One thing that's interesting to me is the AI Apocalypse is dependent on substantially large scale ongoing chip production - in particular GPUs. Chip production

One thing that's interesting to me is the AI Apocalypse is dependent on substantially large scale ongoing chip production - in particular GPUs. Chip production supply chains look a little more shaky these days for both logistical and geopolitical reasons. So another possibility I've been considering is that AI development outstrips the world's ability to supply the necessary chips at some point in the future. It's not the highest probability outcome at this point, so I intuitively ballpark the chances of this outcome at 20% in the next 20y, but I haven't done any hard analysis.