4 ms·

>UK has a political crisis, based on an identity crisis, for which there is no foreseeable solution on the horizon. Needs a miracle breakthrough technology (gra

>UK has a political crisis, based on an identity crisis, for which there is no foreseeable solution on the horizon. Needs a miracle breakthrough technology (graphene? quantum computing?) - a literal moonshot - to reverse this decline The UK's economic future is not nearly as dire as South Korea's, Germany's, Italy's or China's due to the latter countries serious demographic issues

manuelabeledo 4y ago
UK fertility rate is barely higher than Germany, and the population pyramid looks significantly worse than China.
- throwaway6734 4y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_Kingd... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Germany https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Germany https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China Germany's population pyramid is significantly more top heavy as is China's. Not to mention, the UK is much better at assimilating immigrants than Germany and especially China.
  - jacooper 4y ago
    > the UK is much better at assimilating immigrants than Germany and especially China. Doubt there will be any immigrants left, after crazy stuff like sending immigrants to Rwanda and attack them publicly for any and every failure of the economy. Also from a quick read, immigration has already filled the fertility gap in Germany and after the Ukraine war it's giving a surplus too.
  - manuelabeledo 4y ago
    > Germany's population pyramid is significantly more top heavy as is China's. I must be looking at a different graph, because the UK looks like it clearly has less people under 10, than over 60, which does not happen in China. > Not to mention, the UK is much better at assimilating immigrants than Germany and especially China. That is debatable. UK immigration numbers are quite similar to Germany, with 7.7% of non EU immigrants, vs 7.8% [0]. This percentage is lower than other countries like Spain or Greece. Crime rates among immigrants in the UK seem to be similar to those in other countries, as are poverty rates. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_immigration_to_the_United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_immigration_to_the_Unit...
    - throwaway6734 4y ago
      >I must be looking at a different graph, because the UK looks like it clearly has less people under 10, than over 60, which does not happen in China. The important bit is China's massive spike between 30 & 57. What's the plan for the next 30 years? It's not just about raw numbers, but how well those immigrants integrate into the target country
      - manuelabeledo 4y ago
        > The important bit is China's massive spike between 30 & 57. What's the plan for the next 30 years? I don't know, but again, given the fertility rate in the UK, and the recent clamp on immigration, I don't see how they could fare better. > It's not just about raw numbers, but how well those immigrants integrate into the target country Right, but you have not been able to justify either. If there are no metrics on how "well" immigrants integrate, then the point is moot.
TheOtherHobbes 4y ago
The UK has a hopelessly unbalanced economy, with "financial services" and arms sales providing the bulk of GDP. Without those the rest of the UK is an economic wasteland, relatively speaking. Outside of London and the Home Counties most of the population is ridiculously poor. The UK is actually good at law, finance, the arts, and STEM. There's also a significant "boutique" export sector of high-value items of various kinds. There could have been a significant mix of intellectual/service activity and industrialised production, but most of the latter was sold off and shut down in the 80s - often to foreign corporations. Brexit has severely damaged all of the above even further.
- coastermug 4y ago
  This is extremely well put. Finance and defence really are two of the only well performing industries left. - but this is despite there being excellent talent and people within the UK. I despair at government talk about skills shortages. There’s no such thing. Our industries have been decimated, and all we really have left is financial services in London. Which is great if you decided to do accounting at university and/or went to a good private school.

manuelabeledo 4y ago

UK fertility rate is barely higher than Germany, and the population pyramid looks significantly worse than China.

throwaway6734 4y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_Kingd... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Germany https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Germany https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China Germany's population pyramid is significantly more top heavy as is China's. Not to mention, the UK is much better at assimilating immigrants than Germany and especially China.
- jacooper 4y ago
  > the UK is much better at assimilating immigrants than Germany and especially China. Doubt there will be any immigrants left, after crazy stuff like sending immigrants to Rwanda and attack them publicly for any and every failure of the economy. Also from a quick read, immigration has already filled the fertility gap in Germany and after the Ukraine war it's giving a surplus too.
- manuelabeledo 4y ago
  > Germany's population pyramid is significantly more top heavy as is China's. I must be looking at a different graph, because the UK looks like it clearly has less people under 10, than over 60, which does not happen in China. > Not to mention, the UK is much better at assimilating immigrants than Germany and especially China. That is debatable. UK immigration numbers are quite similar to Germany, with 7.7% of non EU immigrants, vs 7.8% [0]. This percentage is lower than other countries like Spain or Greece. Crime rates among immigrants in the UK seem to be similar to those in other countries, as are poverty rates. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_immigration_to_the_United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_immigration_to_the_Unit...
  - throwaway6734 4y ago
    >I must be looking at a different graph, because the UK looks like it clearly has less people under 10, than over 60, which does not happen in China. The important bit is China's massive spike between 30 & 57. What's the plan for the next 30 years? It's not just about raw numbers, but how well those immigrants integrate into the target country
    - manuelabeledo 4y ago
      > The important bit is China's massive spike between 30 & 57. What's the plan for the next 30 years? I don't know, but again, given the fertility rate in the UK, and the recent clamp on immigration, I don't see how they could fare better. > It's not just about raw numbers, but how well those immigrants integrate into the target country Right, but you have not been able to justify either. If there are no metrics on how "well" immigrants integrate, then the point is moot.

TheOtherHobbes 4y ago

The UK has a hopelessly unbalanced economy, with "financial services" and arms sales providing the bulk of GDP. Without those the rest of the UK is an economic wasteland, relatively speaking. Outside of London and the Home Counties most of the population is ridiculously poor. The UK is actually good at law, finance, the arts, and STEM. There's also a significant "boutique" export sector of high-value items of various kinds. There could have been a significant mix of intellectual/service activity and industrialised production, but most of the latter was sold off and shut down in the 80s - often to foreign corporations. Brexit has severely damaged all of the above even further.

coastermug 4y ago
This is extremely well put. Finance and defence really are two of the only well performing industries left. - but this is despite there being excellent talent and people within the UK. I despair at government talk about skills shortages. There’s no such thing. Our industries have been decimated, and all we really have left is financial services in London. Which is great if you decided to do accounting at university and/or went to a good private school.