3 ms·
If something doesn't exist, especially when it's something that has existed in the past but no longer does, there's usually a good reason for it. It's not a nat
by hnarn 4y ago
If something doesn't exist, especially when it's something that has existed in the past but no longer does, there's usually a good reason for it. It's not a natural law, but it's a good rule of thumb to use to initially question and defend a "groundbreaking" idea.
A quick search online tells me that ocean freight is about $1.3/lbs and air freight is about $5.3/lbs. Since we already know that "airships" would likely never be more convenient than existing air cargo, their only way of succeeding is if they found a place between 1.3-5.3 where the cost savings felt motivated to sacrifice regular air freight, while being many orders of magnitude better than ocean freight for that use case.
Even if we're nice and call this a "new" technology rather than what it actually is -- a tried and failed technology -- this "new" technology needs to be many times better than existing options either for cost or convenience (preferably both) to offset the major penalty you will have initially due to the lack of existing infrastructure; and we're not just talking about airports and runways, we're talking about the entire network of optimizations in logistics, maintenance and everything else that have occurred during a century of practice.
I'm just a guy with an opinion, but I very much doubt cargo airships even have a small chance of being "big", unless someone builds something absolutely groundbreaking that leapfrogs existing air cargo solutions entirely -- for example in areas like fuel efficiency, autonomy, or something else.
Nothing is impossible, but if I was a very technical and entrepreneurial person, this isn't where I would put my time.
- bruce511 4y agoI am also sceptical that airships will ever be big. They do have advantages over ocean freight (not everyone lives near a major sea port, or any sea port.) I'm not sure if your price includes road transport, or rail, depending on where you are. Sea is obviously a Lao quite slow. Air freight is expensive, and also somewhat limited airports. In some parts of the world there are lots of those, but most freight travels to a major centre, then trucks etc. I see airships as more of a "trucking" compeditor. Theoretically it can load and unload with minimal ground infrastructure. And it can go places trucks can't go. Yet with all of that the killer problem (literally) seems to be weather. It's hard to see how that problem is reliably solved.