4 ms·

Did people seriously expect that this oil would not be getting out? Marc Rich used to smuggle Iranian embargo oil into Israel, and the guy who replaced him in

Did people seriously expect that this oil would not be getting out? Marc Rich used to smuggle Iranian embargo oil into Israel, and the guy who replaced him in Glencore (Glassenberg) was promoted because he was the guy who figured out how to trade with apartheid SA. When the rewards are big enough somebody will take the risk and figure out how to it. The only difference now is that these trades are way too toxic for Western commodity traders and so eastern outfits will do it instead.

cduzz 4y ago
I would have thought that the point of these exercises was to drive costs up, not make things utterly impossible. The world, sadly, still needs all that oil from everywhere, to keep the economy / ship of fools from running aground. An ideal outcome is Russia sells the oil at a steep discount, has less free cash to buy chips to put in munitions, and the rest of the world has enough oil to keep the general population from rioting in the streets because eggs are too expensive.
MomoXenosaga 4y ago
Ofcourse not. Russia is becoming a pariah state like North Korea and Iran: earn enough money to prop up the regime and fund the war but no more state pensions for the elderly or medicine for the sick. The sanctions isolate Russia and make it diplomatically and economically irrelevant. The Kremlin won't have money for soft power projection. Their regional power is already diminishing.
- iropewu 4y ago
  Sanctions promised to plunge the economy by up to 50% of their GDP, but instead russian GDP only decreased by approximately 2% - 3% in 2022, so almost nothing. EU and US lost any credibility by promising the harshest sanctions ever, but not achieving anything at all. Yeah, and do I need to say that russian ruble is even stronger than it was before sanctions?
  - lcnPylGDnU4H9OF 4y ago
    Where did you get these numbers? Not trying to deny the claims, just curious where they're coming from.
    - harambae 4y ago
      Maybe it was here https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/impact-sanctions-russian-economy/ https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/impact-sanct...
  - grozzle 4y ago
    What volume of trade is that high "official" ruble value based on? The retail/p2p volume outside of state-run banks seems to be higher now, and at a significantly lower ruble value. & welcome to hn, first commenter!

cduzz 4y ago

I would have thought that the point of these exercises was to drive costs up, not make things utterly impossible. The world, sadly, still needs all that oil from everywhere, to keep the economy / ship of fools from running aground. An ideal outcome is Russia sells the oil at a steep discount, has less free cash to buy chips to put in munitions, and the rest of the world has enough oil to keep the general population from rioting in the streets because eggs are too expensive.

MomoXenosaga 4y ago

Ofcourse not. Russia is becoming a pariah state like North Korea and Iran: earn enough money to prop up the regime and fund the war but no more state pensions for the elderly or medicine for the sick. The sanctions isolate Russia and make it diplomatically and economically irrelevant. The Kremlin won't have money for soft power projection. Their regional power is already diminishing.

iropewu 4y ago
Sanctions promised to plunge the economy by up to 50% of their GDP, but instead russian GDP only decreased by approximately 2% - 3% in 2022, so almost nothing. EU and US lost any credibility by promising the harshest sanctions ever, but not achieving anything at all. Yeah, and do I need to say that russian ruble is even stronger than it was before sanctions?
- lcnPylGDnU4H9OF 4y ago
  Where did you get these numbers? Not trying to deny the claims, just curious where they're coming from.
  - harambae 4y ago
    Maybe it was here https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/impact-sanctions-russian-economy/ https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/impact-sanct...
- grozzle 4y ago
  What volume of trade is that high "official" ruble value based on? The retail/p2p volume outside of state-run banks seems to be higher now, and at a significantly lower ruble value. & welcome to hn, first commenter!