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If you are investing in the future, how are you accounting for the growing population while the Indian subcontinent will suffer some pretty harsh effects from c
by piva00 4y ago
If you are investing in the future, how are you accounting for the growing population while the Indian subcontinent will suffer some pretty harsh effects from climate change, mainly regarding water security? India vs China is a big topic there, with China trying to seize control of Himalayan sources of major rivers across the area.
I'd guess in this accounting you also should take in consideration what Modi's government set in motion, a nationalistic movement that is enlarging ethnic-religious wedges, couple that with a still growing population coming under stress of resources shortage and it's a ticking time-bomb for civil wars and worse. On top of all the income inequality that is already pretty stark. How are you planning for the future with all of that? Because only economical metrics won't take you anywhere close to those factors which are definitely in the horizon for the next 10-20 years.
- rapsey 4y agoPretty much all points raised regarding India can be applied to China and vice versa. China is however becoming too expensive to continue their economic model and rift with the west is becoming larger. If Apple is moving towards India, many more will follow.
- piva00 4y agoYes, they do but China isn't growing their population at all on the same level as India, that was my main point of concern there, in a world with dwindling access to some basic resources such as water, what will a boom of population cause in a society with already almost 2bi people in it?
- rapsey 4y agoIndia has cheap Russian gas and plenty of sunshine. If you have energy the rest can be gotten.
- piva00 4y agoI agree that energy is the main currency for development but saying that with abundant energy the rest can be gotten sounds almost like a Deus Ex Machina way out of some issues that, on the scale of population India, are pretty damn big. You can have desalinisation plants for Israel with ~10 mil pop. but desalinisation to provide fresh water for 200-500m people is a complete different ballpark, or even completely different game. I don't agree with this reduction that with enough energy a country can achieve whatever, might work with "given infinite cheap energy" thought models but when you apply that to reality there are lots of pesky constraints...
- rapsey 4y ago1.4B are surviving on the resources at the moment so it's not that bad. You can always find a reason to be negative about the future. However that is a poor mindset for investing. "Pessimists sound smart, optimists make money" is a popular saying.
- piva00 4y agoI would rather rephrase that to "Pessimists sound smart, opportunists make money". It's not about optimism, it's about how you can make money until issues bite, and then how to divest to avoid the consequences... Actually now it makes into a very fitting and tragic parabole to what something like investing in the oil industry looks like :)
- renewiltord 4y agoThe growing population is a good thing. Their old will die and their young will be able to renew. In times of great strife that's the kind of demographics you need. I think it sets India up well.
- piva00 4y agoOnly if their young have the infrastructure to cover their basic needs while developing. If they can't and are forced to share a dwindling pool of resources necessary for basic needs (food, water, for example) you don't get a young generation working in cooperation to renew but a escalation of disputes for resources as those become scarcer/harder to access.