4 ms·

I knew the Indian market was in a big bubble when “Nifty 50” started trending across all social media. I think the Indian economy will go through a deep recessi

by lvl102 4y ago

I knew the Indian market was in a big bubble when “Nifty 50” started trending across all social media. I think the Indian economy will go through a deep recession as a result of all the bubbles bursting.

factorialboy 4y ago
Depends on your timeframe. There will always be ups and downs, but I am extremely bullish on the Indian economy long term. Hindenburgs' / Adani's are just games people play -- these will at best have short to medium term effects. If you like the fundamentals, stick with long term investments.
- lvl102 4y ago
  And fundamentals for Indian economy are horrible. Look at what happened in China vs India in the past three decades. Arguably, China started from a worse economic place/position and outpaced India rapidly. Is it cultural? Perhaps.
  - factorialboy 4y ago
    > Look at what happened in China vs India in the past three decades. I'm investing in the future, not for the past 3 decades. The Chinese economy is a debt ridden liability in 2023 with political uncertainty around President Xi and the real-estate bust. India OTOH .. Please do unbiased research here. Most analysts estimate India to be the fastest growing large economy in 2023. A quick Google search will get you all the references here. Manufacturing is leaving China towards India and Vietnam. Best of all, India is a self-consuming economy, they aren't reliant on exports, their growing population and potential for lifting people into the middle class alone will offer multiple decades of steady growth. > Is it cultural? Perhaps. Thanks for confirming your bias against Indian people and their culture. I have no incentive to debate with you anymore.
    - piva00 4y ago
      If you are investing in the future, how are you accounting for the growing population while the Indian subcontinent will suffer some pretty harsh effects from climate change, mainly regarding water security? India vs China is a big topic there, with China trying to seize control of Himalayan sources of major rivers across the area. I'd guess in this accounting you also should take in consideration what Modi's government set in motion, a nationalistic movement that is enlarging ethnic-religious wedges, couple that with a still growing population coming under stress of resources shortage and it's a ticking time-bomb for civil wars and worse. On top of all the income inequality that is already pretty stark. How are you planning for the future with all of that? Because only economical metrics won't take you anywhere close to those factors which are definitely in the horizon for the next 10-20 years.
      - rapsey 4y ago
        Pretty much all points raised regarding India can be applied to China and vice versa. China is however becoming too expensive to continue their economic model and rift with the west is becoming larger. If Apple is moving towards India, many more will follow.
        piva00 4y ago
        Yes, they do but China isn't growing their population at all on the same level as India, that was my main point of concern there, in a world with dwindling access to some basic resources such as water, what will a boom of population cause in a society with already almost 2bi people in it?
        rapsey 4y ago
        India has cheap Russian gas and plenty of sunshine. If you have energy the rest can be gotten.
        piva00 4y ago
        I agree that energy is the main currency for development but saying that with abundant energy the rest can be gotten sounds almost like a Deus Ex Machina way out of some issues that, on the scale of population India, are pretty damn big. You can have desalinisation plants for Israel with ~10 mil pop. but desalinisation to provide fresh water for 200-500m people is a complete different ballpark, or even completely different game. I don't agree with this reduction that with enough energy a country can achieve whatever, might work with "given infinite cheap energy" thought models but when you apply that to reality there are lots of pesky constraints...
  - rapsey 4y ago
    India is replicating China's manufacturing economic development model. It will likely improve.
    - dirtyid 4y ago
      Improve yes, but see same benefits, probably not. The geopolitical enviroment where world will concentrate manufacturing in one country is over. And even at height PRC manufacturing employed like 300M, India will only get fraction since PRC as incumbant gets to direct large % of where supply chains flow to, add in automation and India will get even less. Reality is even if India executes perfectly, which she's far from able to seeing how infra base is still decade+ behind from when PRC started hammering SEZs and manufacturing, she'll only get fraction of benefit, that's going to be fractioned again because her population still growing. For reference PRC uplifted 300/1300M (2000s pop) during usually stable international enviroment where stars aligned, IMO India lucky to get 100/1400-1700M pop trying to replicate PRC.
  - csomar 4y ago
    Culturally speaking, both countries are strong. Indians place high value on education (especially STEM) and hard work. I don’t think that’s enough to unleash the power of the country. The current elite have an outsized influence on the future of country. In the case of China, they might be authoritarian leaders but they have the interests of their country at the front (even though if internal corruption is rampant)
    - red-iron-pine 4y ago
      They do. And those hard workers move to California or Toronto. Some go back, or maintain ties, but by and large they're staying where they go.
  - SanjayMehta 4y ago
    China is no democracy so it's easier for them to have long term strategic plans in place. Here if even a state government changes political parties, the first thing which happens is that the previous government's policies are undone.
0xDEF 4y ago
The lack of manufacturing in India is scary. They seem to think they can become a developed country with substinence farming and IT outsourcing. That is simply not possible. Start building factories and things, India.
- drumhead 4y ago
  They are, Apple is moving a significant part of it future manufacturing there. But problem with doing manufacturing in India is the speed at which the things get done, the poorer infrastructure and the endless red tape/corruption. Maybe greater foreign investment will break down or reduce some of those obstacles.
  - red-iron-pine 4y ago
    maybe.
drumhead 4y ago
India is a good growth story, their going to benefit from the west's realignment away from Chinese manufacturing.
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  Social strife and political gridlock will ensure that the results remain subpar. The rhetoric in India over the last decade has successfully turned two communities (Hindus, Muslims) against each other to the point where public calls for violence and economic boycott are an everyday occurrence. Hard to thrive in that environment
  - SanjayMehta 4y ago
    There is no social strife in India. There's just propaganda, amplified by mostly Western media. There are 1.3 billion people here. There are fewer incidents than what we see coming out of Portland OR alone. Or France and Sweden in December end. The problem is that the current government does not listen to the West any more. Pfizer etc were shown the door. Russian gas imports have increased massively since April 2022. There's an election coming up and the current government is likely to continue. Hence the coordinated attacks by the BBC and this short-seller.
    - drumhead 4y ago
      There's a lot of social strife. We've seen how the other religions are being persecuted. Caste based issues still cause friction. Then there's regional seperatism, rich v poor. There's a lot more cause for social problems in India by far then there is in China. You're being disingenous if you say there arent. If you think that the current govenrment doesnt listen to the West then you dont really understand the balance of economic power in the world. Virtually all of the growth that India as achieved in the last 20 years comes from selling to the West. If we shut you down like we did with Russia, how long do you think your economy would last. India is only as big as the UK or France in economic terms, they have a good growth story, but dont think you're in anyway big enough to cause the west any problems or big enough to ignore what they want.

by lvl102 4y ago

factorialboy 4y ago

Depends on your timeframe. There will always be ups and downs, but I am extremely bullish on the Indian economy long term. Hindenburgs' / Adani's are just games people play -- these will at best have short to medium term effects. If you like the fundamentals, stick with long term investments.

lvl102 4y ago
And fundamentals for Indian economy are horrible. Look at what happened in China vs India in the past three decades. Arguably, China started from a worse economic place/position and outpaced India rapidly. Is it cultural? Perhaps.
- factorialboy 4y ago
  > Look at what happened in China vs India in the past three decades. I'm investing in the future, not for the past 3 decades. The Chinese economy is a debt ridden liability in 2023 with political uncertainty around President Xi and the real-estate bust. India OTOH .. Please do unbiased research here. Most analysts estimate India to be the fastest growing large economy in 2023. A quick Google search will get you all the references here. Manufacturing is leaving China towards India and Vietnam. Best of all, India is a self-consuming economy, they aren't reliant on exports, their growing population and potential for lifting people into the middle class alone will offer multiple decades of steady growth. > Is it cultural? Perhaps. Thanks for confirming your bias against Indian people and their culture. I have no incentive to debate with you anymore.
  - piva00 4y ago
    If you are investing in the future, how are you accounting for the growing population while the Indian subcontinent will suffer some pretty harsh effects from climate change, mainly regarding water security? India vs China is a big topic there, with China trying to seize control of Himalayan sources of major rivers across the area. I'd guess in this accounting you also should take in consideration what Modi's government set in motion, a nationalistic movement that is enlarging ethnic-religious wedges, couple that with a still growing population coming under stress of resources shortage and it's a ticking time-bomb for civil wars and worse. On top of all the income inequality that is already pretty stark. How are you planning for the future with all of that? Because only economical metrics won't take you anywhere close to those factors which are definitely in the horizon for the next 10-20 years.
    - rapsey 4y ago
      Pretty much all points raised regarding India can be applied to China and vice versa. China is however becoming too expensive to continue their economic model and rift with the west is becoming larger. If Apple is moving towards India, many more will follow.
      - piva00 4y ago
        Yes, they do but China isn't growing their population at all on the same level as India, that was my main point of concern there, in a world with dwindling access to some basic resources such as water, what will a boom of population cause in a society with already almost 2bi people in it?
        rapsey 4y ago
        India has cheap Russian gas and plenty of sunshine. If you have energy the rest can be gotten.
        piva00 4y ago
        I agree that energy is the main currency for development but saying that with abundant energy the rest can be gotten sounds almost like a Deus Ex Machina way out of some issues that, on the scale of population India, are pretty damn big. You can have desalinisation plants for Israel with ~10 mil pop. but desalinisation to provide fresh water for 200-500m people is a complete different ballpark, or even completely different game. I don't agree with this reduction that with enough energy a country can achieve whatever, might work with "given infinite cheap energy" thought models but when you apply that to reality there are lots of pesky constraints...
- rapsey 4y ago
  India is replicating China's manufacturing economic development model. It will likely improve.
  - dirtyid 4y ago
    Improve yes, but see same benefits, probably not. The geopolitical enviroment where world will concentrate manufacturing in one country is over. And even at height PRC manufacturing employed like 300M, India will only get fraction since PRC as incumbant gets to direct large % of where supply chains flow to, add in automation and India will get even less. Reality is even if India executes perfectly, which she's far from able to seeing how infra base is still decade+ behind from when PRC started hammering SEZs and manufacturing, she'll only get fraction of benefit, that's going to be fractioned again because her population still growing. For reference PRC uplifted 300/1300M (2000s pop) during usually stable international enviroment where stars aligned, IMO India lucky to get 100/1400-1700M pop trying to replicate PRC.
- csomar 4y ago
  Culturally speaking, both countries are strong. Indians place high value on education (especially STEM) and hard work. I don’t think that’s enough to unleash the power of the country. The current elite have an outsized influence on the future of country. In the case of China, they might be authoritarian leaders but they have the interests of their country at the front (even though if internal corruption is rampant)
  - red-iron-pine 4y ago
    They do. And those hard workers move to California or Toronto. Some go back, or maintain ties, but by and large they're staying where they go.
- SanjayMehta 4y ago
  China is no democracy so it's easier for them to have long term strategic plans in place. Here if even a state government changes political parties, the first thing which happens is that the previous government's policies are undone.

0xDEF 4y ago

The lack of manufacturing in India is scary. They seem to think they can become a developed country with substinence farming and IT outsourcing. That is simply not possible. Start building factories and things, India.

drumhead 4y ago
They are, Apple is moving a significant part of it future manufacturing there. But problem with doing manufacturing in India is the speed at which the things get done, the poorer infrastructure and the endless red tape/corruption. Maybe greater foreign investment will break down or reduce some of those obstacles.
- red-iron-pine 4y ago
  maybe.

drumhead 4y ago

India is a good growth story, their going to benefit from the west's realignment away from Chinese manufacturing.

spaceman_2020 4y ago
Social strife and political gridlock will ensure that the results remain subpar. The rhetoric in India over the last decade has successfully turned two communities (Hindus, Muslims) against each other to the point where public calls for violence and economic boycott are an everyday occurrence. Hard to thrive in that environment
- SanjayMehta 4y ago
  There is no social strife in India. There's just propaganda, amplified by mostly Western media. There are 1.3 billion people here. There are fewer incidents than what we see coming out of Portland OR alone. Or France and Sweden in December end. The problem is that the current government does not listen to the West any more. Pfizer etc were shown the door. Russian gas imports have increased massively since April 2022. There's an election coming up and the current government is likely to continue. Hence the coordinated attacks by the BBC and this short-seller.
  - drumhead 4y ago
    There's a lot of social strife. We've seen how the other religions are being persecuted. Caste based issues still cause friction. Then there's regional seperatism, rich v poor. There's a lot more cause for social problems in India by far then there is in China. You're being disingenous if you say there arent. If you think that the current govenrment doesnt listen to the West then you dont really understand the balance of economic power in the world. Virtually all of the growth that India as achieved in the last 20 years comes from selling to the West. If we shut you down like we did with Russia, how long do you think your economy would last. India is only as big as the UK or France in economic terms, they have a good growth story, but dont think you're in anyway big enough to cause the west any problems or big enough to ignore what they want.