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Internal Tech Emails: Mark Zuckerberg: “VR / AR Strategy”

32 points by FinnKuhn 4y ago

mjfl 4y ago
He called it wrong. VR is not the platform of the future. People don't want to be strapped into a VR headset all day. They don't want to live in a universe run by Mark Zuckerberg either.
- malermeister 4y ago
  I think his core miscalculation is not realizing just how mistrusting of Facebook and himself most people are. High tech VR goggles might be fun - but having the creepiest surveillance capitalists record everything you do so they can use it to manipulate you to buy more shit you don't need is not a tradeoff people are willing to make.
  - steve1977 4y ago
    His core miscalculation is not realizing that he is not a genius. He just got lucky once.
- enos_feedler 4y ago
  He has a track record of calling things wrong. Remember when he thought the future of mobile was the open web? They doubled down on a web based app instead of watching native unfold as it was already doing. What also stood out is the timing he predicted that AR and VR would be viable. 2025. He makes a lot of wrong calls which are very large in scope
  - thinking4real 4y ago
    Meanwhile Musk shits gold and everyone jumps to criticize him at a moments notice It’s pretty clear who’s in favor with the hidden ruling class
    - MrMan 4y ago
      who is the hidden ruling class? VCs?
trynewideas 4y ago
Wow, that's a very detailed "example" about buying Unity.
71a54xd 4y ago
Wow, what can I do now to opt out of all of this shit before it becomes pervasive? Especially in the realm of remote software eng work.
Awelton 4y ago
VR is CEO bait. They can't let go of the idea of strapping advertising and tracking devices directly to peoples heads. It's just too tantalizing. Almost nobody has any interest in VR, but absolutely nobody has interest in facebook VR. It will never be anything more than a niche toy, and before long it will go the way of 3D televisions. We are going to see many more big companies burn heaps of money chasing this dream before it goes away again. They simply can't help themselves.
- MonkeyMalarky 4y ago
  It'll happen but only when it is so subtle, cheap and unobtrusive that users don't even notice it gaining a foothold. The technology will advance to a point and a use case will evolve where people will end up wearing AR devices in their daily lives and then the lame advertising model will take hold. Why FB et al is jumping straight to the endgame and not building the must-have killer app first, I don't understand.
  - KerrAvon 4y ago
    Why will it happen? I don’t understand. 1. VR/AR goggles 2. ???? 3. Profit
    - KerrAvon 4y ago
      I think what’s happening is that tech CEOs think the next big disruptive thing is overdue — 1984: Mac. 1994: Web. 2007: iPhone. 2010: social media — “S-curve” theory is astrology for tech executives, and they all buy into it because they don’t understand how anything actually works in real life. Steve Jobs was an exception, but he’s long gone, RIP. To make VR work for the masses requires display devices that haven’t been invented yet, or a killer app that makes a new generation of children willing to do it. Adults aren’t going to strap goggles to their faces for 8 hours a day. They’re just not.
    - lithos 4y ago
      It's not ???, it's closer to an advertiser's dream: camera access to the room, eye tracking, mouth tracking, heart/blood pressure (anything that fits on a fitness watch), driver level access to the PC, and user forced to use your walled garden. Along with getting rid of all the threats the browser has with ad blocking, Javascript blocking, and lack of being able to scan user files (even the supposed privacy champion Apple scans user files).
karmakaze 4y ago
That explains a lot. One thing that pick out of all this is that it is mostly motivated by fear and inferiority, even if it is a long-term business strategy. In particular it points out Apple, Google, and even Valve as being far ahead and in better positions. It specifically talks about VR and AR, the first of which Oculus was leading with Quest 2 and I was lost as to why a Quest 3 wasn't released by now. It's because they were focused on their fear, deficiency in AR. In my book, the way to get ahead is to get ahead, take the Quest 2 and go farther faster, then leverage that. What's rarely successful is winning by 'trying not to lose'. They also could have done these things in parallel, rather than one at a time bottlenecked through the CEO. Another blindspot was separating games and social experiences. If Animal Crossing has shown anything it's that there is no line that divides games and not games, and VR/AR is more able to ride that line than anything before.
- uni_rule 4y ago
  I agree with the sentiment. If Facebook simply saw the Quest 2 as what it truly is - a standalone video game console that rivals the Nintendo Switch despite the radically different form factor - they could've leaned significantly more into what parts of it have genuine mass appeal. Instead they tried to leapfrog what people actually wanted from the tech and tried to provide what they think business people may want from it in the future, pleasing no one.
- fatnoah 4y ago
  > One thing that pick out of all this is that it is mostly motivated by fear and inferiority, even if it is a long-term business strategy I had an inside view and fear is a real thing, but not fear of others being ahead or innovating more. The real fear is that Meta doesn't own its own platform. It's completely at the mercy of Apple and Google on mobile devices. The investment in VR and AR is as much about owning the platform as anything else.
  - karmakaze 4y ago
    But the Quest 2 is a platform that can grow. It's like they're trying to raise an artistic child to grow up to be a lawyer. The Quest 2 and gaming isn't success in their eyes.
RickHull 4y ago
5-10 years from now, maybe.
- steve1977 4y ago
  As always.
Tiktaalik 4y ago
looks at date Well I guess he lost the argument on buying Unity...
Gunax 4y ago
VR has a nasea problem. I never expected that I would get nauseous--that's something other people feel, but I am an avid game player. No way will it affect me. I was so wrong. One of my first experiences in VR was pushing myself to play 3 hours of Orbus. I thought I could just push through it and I would get used to it. I felt awful for the rest of the day. Even sleeping did not fully restore me. I almost called in sick the next day because of a dumb game. Sometimes I think Zuckerberg might just be one of the 10% of people who dont get VR sickness. The technology is really cool. If you haven't tried it yet--go find someone who owns one. But it's sort if a trap. If you don't feel sickness from it, you can very easily be deceived into thinking everyone will perceive it like you. Im still an avid VR player, but I make sure I only play games where I am stationary.
- nichch 4y ago
  Anecdotally, I’ve shown VR to 15 or 20 people and nobody has gotten motion sick or felt nauseous. One person got dizzy, but only when guardian became visible.
- xt00 4y ago
  The headset matters a ton as well as the types of games — best to use a high frame rate and teleport only to get acquainted with VR.
lithos 4y ago
2015 strat of buying Unity, was a couple of years early for CEO types to recognize it as being big (IE: Unity is comfortable enough to turn down 20billion acquisition attempts in 2022).
Kim_Bruning 4y ago
VR is potentially really useful: instead of fixed size monitors like we still often have, imagine having an indefinite number of pixels at your disposal. Also, things like an Occulus headset fit into your laptop bag a lot better than a pair of UHD monitors. (Which it can replace for a number of people/applications as is) Personally I don't want to do business with Facebook though, so for me Facebook's acquisition strategy is slowing things down.

32 points by FinnKuhn 4y ago

mjfl 4y ago

He called it wrong. VR is not the platform of the future. People don't want to be strapped into a VR headset all day. They don't want to live in a universe run by Mark Zuckerberg either.

malermeister 4y ago
I think his core miscalculation is not realizing just how mistrusting of Facebook and himself most people are. High tech VR goggles might be fun - but having the creepiest surveillance capitalists record everything you do so they can use it to manipulate you to buy more shit you don't need is not a tradeoff people are willing to make.
- steve1977 4y ago
  His core miscalculation is not realizing that he is not a genius. He just got lucky once.
enos_feedler 4y ago
He has a track record of calling things wrong. Remember when he thought the future of mobile was the open web? They doubled down on a web based app instead of watching native unfold as it was already doing. What also stood out is the timing he predicted that AR and VR would be viable. 2025. He makes a lot of wrong calls which are very large in scope
- thinking4real 4y ago
  Meanwhile Musk shits gold and everyone jumps to criticize him at a moments notice It’s pretty clear who’s in favor with the hidden ruling class
  - MrMan 4y ago
    who is the hidden ruling class? VCs?

trynewideas 4y ago

Wow, that's a very detailed "example" about buying Unity.

71a54xd 4y ago

Wow, what can I do now to opt out of all of this shit before it becomes pervasive? Especially in the realm of remote software eng work.

Awelton 4y ago

VR is CEO bait. They can't let go of the idea of strapping advertising and tracking devices directly to peoples heads. It's just too tantalizing. Almost nobody has any interest in VR, but absolutely nobody has interest in facebook VR. It will never be anything more than a niche toy, and before long it will go the way of 3D televisions. We are going to see many more big companies burn heaps of money chasing this dream before it goes away again. They simply can't help themselves.

MonkeyMalarky 4y ago
It'll happen but only when it is so subtle, cheap and unobtrusive that users don't even notice it gaining a foothold. The technology will advance to a point and a use case will evolve where people will end up wearing AR devices in their daily lives and then the lame advertising model will take hold. Why FB et al is jumping straight to the endgame and not building the must-have killer app first, I don't understand.
- KerrAvon 4y ago
  Why will it happen? I don’t understand. 1. VR/AR goggles 2. ???? 3. Profit
  - KerrAvon 4y ago
    I think what’s happening is that tech CEOs think the next big disruptive thing is overdue — 1984: Mac. 1994: Web. 2007: iPhone. 2010: social media — “S-curve” theory is astrology for tech executives, and they all buy into it because they don’t understand how anything actually works in real life. Steve Jobs was an exception, but he’s long gone, RIP. To make VR work for the masses requires display devices that haven’t been invented yet, or a killer app that makes a new generation of children willing to do it. Adults aren’t going to strap goggles to their faces for 8 hours a day. They’re just not.
  - lithos 4y ago
    It's not ???, it's closer to an advertiser's dream: camera access to the room, eye tracking, mouth tracking, heart/blood pressure (anything that fits on a fitness watch), driver level access to the PC, and user forced to use your walled garden. Along with getting rid of all the threats the browser has with ad blocking, Javascript blocking, and lack of being able to scan user files (even the supposed privacy champion Apple scans user files).

karmakaze 4y ago

That explains a lot. One thing that pick out of all this is that it is mostly motivated by fear and inferiority, even if it is a long-term business strategy. In particular it points out Apple, Google, and even Valve as being far ahead and in better positions. It specifically talks about VR and AR, the first of which Oculus was leading with Quest 2 and I was lost as to why a Quest 3 wasn't released by now. It's because they were focused on their fear, deficiency in AR. In my book, the way to get ahead is to get ahead, take the Quest 2 and go farther faster, then leverage that. What's rarely successful is winning by 'trying not to lose'. They also could have done these things in parallel, rather than one at a time bottlenecked through the CEO. Another blindspot was separating games and social experiences. If Animal Crossing has shown anything it's that there is no line that divides games and not games, and VR/AR is more able to ride that line than anything before.

uni_rule 4y ago
I agree with the sentiment. If Facebook simply saw the Quest 2 as what it truly is - a standalone video game console that rivals the Nintendo Switch despite the radically different form factor - they could've leaned significantly more into what parts of it have genuine mass appeal. Instead they tried to leapfrog what people actually wanted from the tech and tried to provide what they think business people may want from it in the future, pleasing no one.
fatnoah 4y ago
> One thing that pick out of all this is that it is mostly motivated by fear and inferiority, even if it is a long-term business strategy I had an inside view and fear is a real thing, but not fear of others being ahead or innovating more. The real fear is that Meta doesn't own its own platform. It's completely at the mercy of Apple and Google on mobile devices. The investment in VR and AR is as much about owning the platform as anything else.
- karmakaze 4y ago
  But the Quest 2 is a platform that can grow. It's like they're trying to raise an artistic child to grow up to be a lawyer. The Quest 2 and gaming isn't success in their eyes.

RickHull 4y ago

5-10 years from now, maybe.

steve1977 4y ago
As always.

Tiktaalik 4y ago

looks at date Well I guess he lost the argument on buying Unity...

Gunax 4y ago

VR has a nasea problem. I never expected that I would get nauseous--that's something other people feel, but I am an avid game player. No way will it affect me. I was so wrong. One of my first experiences in VR was pushing myself to play 3 hours of Orbus. I thought I could just push through it and I would get used to it. I felt awful for the rest of the day. Even sleeping did not fully restore me. I almost called in sick the next day because of a dumb game. Sometimes I think Zuckerberg might just be one of the 10% of people who dont get VR sickness. The technology is really cool. If you haven't tried it yet--go find someone who owns one. But it's sort if a trap. If you don't feel sickness from it, you can very easily be deceived into thinking everyone will perceive it like you. Im still an avid VR player, but I make sure I only play games where I am stationary.

nichch 4y ago
Anecdotally, I’ve shown VR to 15 or 20 people and nobody has gotten motion sick or felt nauseous. One person got dizzy, but only when guardian became visible.
xt00 4y ago
The headset matters a ton as well as the types of games — best to use a high frame rate and teleport only to get acquainted with VR.

lithos 4y ago

2015 strat of buying Unity, was a couple of years early for CEO types to recognize it as being big (IE: Unity is comfortable enough to turn down 20billion acquisition attempts in 2022).

Kim_Bruning 4y ago

VR is potentially really useful: instead of fixed size monitors like we still often have, imagine having an indefinite number of pixels at your disposal. Also, things like an Occulus headset fit into your laptop bag a lot better than a pair of UHD monitors. (Which it can replace for a number of people/applications as is) Personally I don't want to do business with Facebook though, so for me Facebook's acquisition strategy is slowing things down.