4 ms·
You have it reversed. US prefer sooner war because PRC military closing gap and will continue to both in platfrom numbers and capabilities. PRC also has the B
by dirtyid 4y ago
You have it reversed.
US prefer sooner war because PRC military closing gap and will continue to both in platfrom numbers and capabilities.
PRC also has the BEST demographics to fight future wars. She's still going to generate multiple times US population as 800M country by 2100, except most will be high skilled necessary to operate modern military, which current reforms is running short on talent because access to high end mil talent is relatively new due to efforts paying off from past education reforms. Reality is, even depressed PRC demographics is still generating 8-5 million bodies a year, and all you really need is a few hundred thousand for modern war machine. The entire demographics will affect PRCs ability to wage war is frankly stupid. Doubly so in age where unmanned roles increasing which still overwhelmingly favours PRC industry.
Meanwhile PLA isn't even close to upper limit of military size and power, with a signficantly greater upper bound than US due to population and industrial base. Like her defense budget is ~2%. She's barely trying. Decades from now PLA will be multiple times more powerful than now, like PLA modernization plans anticipates MATCHING broad spectrum US military primacy after 2040s, there's no reason to do anything now especially if trigger is capability based. Condition based sure, like if TW declares indpendance or US crosses redlines, but that's not for PRC to decide.
Hence why all the PRC will attack TW "windows" are coming from US, because the long term trend significantly favours PRC who'd rather wait. At minimum until post 2030s until she builds out another few thousand nukes. Overlooking that PRC would rush TW scenario unilaterally without proper nuke umbrella is what gives these "windows" little credibility.