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Germany already took enormous amounts of immigrants from Syrian war. Now they "benefit" from Russian-Ukraine conflict. I think there will be zero/null shortage
by 0xmarcin 4y ago
Germany already took enormous amounts of immigrants from Syrian war. Now they "benefit" from Russian-Ukraine conflict. I think there will be zero/null shortage of the workforce there. The country is still desirable target for immigrants. Instead Germany problem may be lack of natural resources, they relied heavily on cheap commodities from Russia. Probably they will try to go back to business as usual as fast as possible to restore their competitiveness.
China: just as government introduced one child policy it may introduce 2 or 3 children policy, saying e.g. that with 2 children you will get an apartment for free or that childless ppl have to pay 50% tax rate...
So far China is not a consumption society, so decrease in population will not translate to a huge decrease in consumer spending. Instead they still rely on exports as engine of the economic growth. Introducing sanction against China by EU & US may be a greater hit than demographics.
Probably we will have to find ways to produce e.g. batteries without rare earth metals. New deposits where recently also found in Sweden.
No government will risk famine in their own country to support "rich countries sanctions". Certainly neither India nor China will. Poor countries will buy regardless if the wheat comes from Russia or Ukraine, not buying means starving a lot of people and social unrest.
Time to build neon producing facility in the west...
I think the current situation will be remembered as a small local conflict, just as Vietnam war, first gulf war and hundreds of other conflicts. Despite propaganda both sides (NATO, Russia) do not want to go to the full scale conflict (see NATO and Russia behavior after a missile have fallen on Polish border). Some EU politics still want to talk with Putin (Macron), some countries (Hungary) want Russia to actually win. My country (Poland) went "full panic mode", mostly because populistic government tries to use this conflict to boost their chances of winning an election coming in September.
As for Taiwan there was already a serious conflict about that island: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Taiwan_Strait_Crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Taiwan_Strait_Crisis Looks like we have a replay of that today. Just as south korea wants to avoid war at all costs (because the war will be on their territory), Taiwan want to also avoid war at all costs. China wants to unite with Taiwan on peaceful terms, otherwise we would see missiles flying over the island a long time ago.
Overall I believe Chinese government is kind of "brute gentlemens" or maybe even merchants, while Russian gov are just brutes. Nevertheless as long as Russia and China do not pull from stuff like fight with global warming, WHO (US shame on you) there will be no WWIII. Do let media panic and propaganda get to your heart.