3 ms·

I don't know about most people, but when economists measure wealth they work out net worth accounting for debts.

by simonh 4y ago

isthisthingon99 4y ago
They do a mark to market sure but the ops point is that all of it is a debt bubble and if the debt is called back it collapses. So there is an implicit agreement between all the "developed" countries to keep the sham going as long as possible. When it hits... your house will be worth billions.
- simonh 4y ago
  I remember people saying this back when I was a student in the 80s. Sure we've had booms and busts, and over leveraging is a thing, but I see "the 95% collapse is already happening" videos on youtube occasionally and, yeah, no, it's been already happening for like 10 years now.
  - isthisthingon99 4y ago
    These things play out over multiple lifetimes not just one.
    - simonh 4y ago
      I'm sure it's coming any second. The mistake this sort of analysis makes is assuming nobody will do anything to stop things getting worse, and underestimating the extent to which other things in the economy and society are going well. The same is true in booms, most analysts under value the risks building up in the system. It's the old extrapolating the down trend to infinity in a bust, and extrapolating the upswing to infinity in a boom. This is why Ukraine didn't collapse under bombing, Russia didn't collapse under sanctions, the Chinese property market is now rallying. It's why the Fed made a profit out of TARP. When things go to crap, the people who can do something don't throw their hands in the air and give up. They get to work.
      - isthisthingon99 4y ago
        There are decades where nothing happens and there are weeks where decades happen. That's the idea. When bad happens, it is uncontrolled. Eventually, bad will happen and no attempt to control it will succeed. But sure, until then, you are right. And there is nothing anyone can really do to prepare except have a "go bag" and have assets and residence in multiple countries.
nickdothutton 4y ago
When I consider how well I'm doing (or not) I drily consider my net worth as one would on a balance sheet. But I don't think this is quite what the average member of the public thinks when they think about wealth and prosperity. By which I mean the visible portion of wealth (not net wealth). I think there is a perception in the UK that we are a far more wealthy country than we really are, both in terms of visible wealth among individuals and the finances of the country. I think many would be surprised at the median level of true wealth (net wealth) in the UK. Interesting figures here: https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/savings-accounts/average-household-savings-uk#medianwealthbyage https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/savings-accounts/average-househ... Edited for typo.
- simonh 4y ago
  So the median wealth going into retirement in the UK, that is the wealth for someone bang slap in the middle where half of households are more wealthy than them and half are less wealthy, is about £600,000 pounds. That's actually a lot higher than I was expecting. I would have guessed it would be well under half a mill.

I don't know about most people, but when economists measure wealth they work out net worth accounting for debts.

by simonh 4y ago

I don't know about most people, but when economists measure wealth they work out net worth accounting for debts.

They do a mark to market sure but the ops point is that all of it is a debt bubble and if the debt is called back it collapses. So there is an implicit agreement between all the "developed" countries to keep the sham going as long as possible. When it hits... your house will be worth billions.

simonh 4y ago
I remember people saying this back when I was a student in the 80s. Sure we've had booms and busts, and over leveraging is a thing, but I see "the 95% collapse is already happening" videos on youtube occasionally and, yeah, no, it's been already happening for like 10 years now.
- isthisthingon99 4y ago
  These things play out over multiple lifetimes not just one.
  - simonh 4y ago
    I'm sure it's coming any second. The mistake this sort of analysis makes is assuming nobody will do anything to stop things getting worse, and underestimating the extent to which other things in the economy and society are going well. The same is true in booms, most analysts under value the risks building up in the system. It's the old extrapolating the down trend to infinity in a bust, and extrapolating the upswing to infinity in a boom. This is why Ukraine didn't collapse under bombing, Russia didn't collapse under sanctions, the Chinese property market is now rallying. It's why the Fed made a profit out of TARP. When things go to crap, the people who can do something don't throw their hands in the air and give up. They get to work.
    - isthisthingon99 4y ago
      There are decades where nothing happens and there are weeks where decades happen. That's the idea. When bad happens, it is uncontrolled. Eventually, bad will happen and no attempt to control it will succeed. But sure, until then, you are right. And there is nothing anyone can really do to prepare except have a "go bag" and have assets and residence in multiple countries.

nickdothutton 4y ago

When I consider how well I'm doing (or not) I drily consider my net worth as one would on a balance sheet. But I don't think this is quite what the average member of the public thinks when they think about wealth and prosperity. By which I mean the visible portion of wealth (not net wealth). I think there is a perception in the UK that we are a far more wealthy country than we really are, both in terms of visible wealth among individuals and the finances of the country. I think many would be surprised at the median level of true wealth (net wealth) in the UK. Interesting figures here: https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/savings-accounts/average-household-savings-uk#medianwealthbyage https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/savings-accounts/average-househ... Edited for typo.

simonh 4y ago
So the median wealth going into retirement in the UK, that is the wealth for someone bang slap in the middle where half of households are more wealthy than them and half are less wealthy, is about £600,000 pounds. That's actually a lot higher than I was expecting. I would have guessed it would be well under half a mill.