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> There has been an increase in traffic accidents the last three years and I have been following it because I wondered myself if I noticed it. Since you're not

by lucb1e 4y ago

> There has been an increase in traffic accidents the last three years and I have been following it because I wondered myself if I noticed it. Since you're not citing any, I'm going to just go off the first figures I found which go until 2021 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in... Yes it went up, yes you should pay attention and fix it if reasonably possible. But keep it in perspective: it went from a near all-time low of 1.1 "Fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled" in 2019 to 1.3 which is roughly the level of 2007. For every five hundred million miles, you'd see one more fatality (or, per hundred million miles, 0.2 more). You cannot convince me that anyone can tell this difference more reliably than a coin flip could, even if your job involved being on the road. Is a three-years-in-a-row increase unprecedented? No, just three years before the start of this three-year increase also saw the end of three consecutive years of increased road fatalities, and starting from roughly the same value (~1.1) to end up a bit less bad than now (1.2 vs. 1.3). How much above statistical significance that is, it doesn't say. Deaths aren't the whole story but after clicking on the 'more info' link that leads to <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_safety_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_safety_in_the_U...>, the graphs and tables are basically all labeled 'deaths', 'killed', and 'fatalities'. Maybe the crash rate is noticeable, but people aren't good at noticing slow trends. I'd not be surprised if the average person wouldn't notice a 50% increase (provided proportionate news coverage, i.e. same amount of air time per crash) when smeared out across a year and starting with a "rare but definitely not unheard of" value which is what road accidents currently are (I've never been in one after a decade of driving, but I know people that have been so it's not surprising to hear of it or to end up in one). More likely, the news coverage went up, or someone mentioned that the stats were up and then you registered subsequent crash reports more.

onetimeusename 4y ago
It's plausible people might not notice traffic deaths but this assumes there is absolutely no correlation with general driving experience and road safety which is unlikely. Also, this is thousands of extra deaths and on a year over year basis that happened since 2020 when it had been trending down previously so I think it's quite plausible that people notice and it happened rapidly. But that is just one particular statistic the NHTSA published to extrapolate from. There is an older study showing an increase in speeding incidents in 2020.[1] This is a 50% increase which seems likely to be noticeable although this study only counted a short period in one location. The problem with a lot of the statistics besides NHTSA traffic fatality I have tracked is they tend to be specific to one area and not nationwide. But, we also know speeding is associated with higher traffic fatality per the NHTSA. I kind of suspect you are just looking to downplay the statistics but there is another metric that can be used except it is not tracked by the NHTSA and could be biased. But a quick search for "increase in road rage incidents" will show that a number of states have had this issue since 2020. Unfortunately, there is a non profit that may have a bias collecting the data but it has been reported on.[2] Basically road rage murders increased a lot in 2021 and 2020 and all over the country it seems. This is not what is tracked by the NHTSA since these are murders as far as I can tell. To me it seems like quite a stretch that there can be increases in road rage incidents which are associated with speeding and aggressive driving and that there is a corresponding unnoticeable decline in driver etiquette. It's likely quite noticeable. As I said, I am following this issue because I noticed a change but I don't think there is going to be any easy way to prove anything given how long it takes to collect statistics and a lot of what can provide proof is not recorded in any usable way. I also said the issue is well documented and you can find a lot from disparate sources. update: NHTSA launched a campaign to remind drivers not to speed recently. The campaign page has related information and statistics relevant here. https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/nhtsa-launches-new-campaign-remind-drivers-speeding-wrecks-lives https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/nhtsa-launches-new-camp... [1]: https://www.iihs.org/topics/bibliography/ref/2258 https://www.iihs.org/topics/bibliography/ref/2258 [2]: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/road-rage-shootings-guns-2021/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/road-rage-shootings-guns-2021/
- lucb1e 4y ago
  > Basically road rage murders increased a lot in 2021 and 2020 and all over the country it seems. These incidents are a tiny tiny fraction of all non-accidental injuries or unnatural deaths occurring. Yes it went up, yes you should pay attention and fix it if reasonably possible. But again: keep it in perspective. Singling out a metric that went up while, say, the total burden of disease (on the scale of comparing to other countries and across decades) essentially stayed the same[1] and... okay honestly I'm having trouble finding a metric where the USA improved over the last years (or, if 2021+ data is not yet available, even the last decade). Still, not sure that means things are suddenly bad. OP's sentiment and a lot of this thread is that the world is going to shit, which is objectively not true if the USA maintains its quality of life and not-so-wealthy/healthy places are continuously improving. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dalys-rate-from-all-causes?tab=chart&country=USA~NLD~AFG~CHN~BRA~ARG https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dalys-rate-from-all-cause...
  - onetimeusename 4y ago
    ah ok not sure about going to shit, I probably wouldn't say that, so I don't agree with OP that things have gone to shit. I don't feel that way. I do think road safety worsened slightly but it's not Mad Max bad and I think eventually it will revert to the mean hopefully. Yes, it's a small increase in a long term decline of road deaths and I haven't seen second half of 2022 data yet but my last understanding was that traffic fatality may have peaked in 2022, idk. It's too early to tell and people might not care a year from now if things improve. I should have been more clear about what my position was because yes a lot of things worsened and are much higher concerns than road safety and it's definitely not a major issue but I just happen to be following it. It's just a temporary thing I imagine. But I do want to warn people just to be slightly more careful. But I am fascinated by some of the data because there has never been a lockdown before and I am curious if it affected driving. It could have implications for traffic safety, road design, and traffic shaping. I should've avoided any other implication.

by lucb1e 4y ago

onetimeusename 4y ago

It's plausible people might not notice traffic deaths but this assumes there is absolutely no correlation with general driving experience and road safety which is unlikely. Also, this is thousands of extra deaths and on a year over year basis that happened since 2020 when it had been trending down previously so I think it's quite plausible that people notice and it happened rapidly. But that is just one particular statistic the NHTSA published to extrapolate from. There is an older study showing an increase in speeding incidents in 2020.[1] This is a 50% increase which seems likely to be noticeable although this study only counted a short period in one location. The problem with a lot of the statistics besides NHTSA traffic fatality I have tracked is they tend to be specific to one area and not nationwide. But, we also know speeding is associated with higher traffic fatality per the NHTSA. I kind of suspect you are just looking to downplay the statistics but there is another metric that can be used except it is not tracked by the NHTSA and could be biased. But a quick search for "increase in road rage incidents" will show that a number of states have had this issue since 2020. Unfortunately, there is a non profit that may have a bias collecting the data but it has been reported on.[2] Basically road rage murders increased a lot in 2021 and 2020 and all over the country it seems. This is not what is tracked by the NHTSA since these are murders as far as I can tell. To me it seems like quite a stretch that there can be increases in road rage incidents which are associated with speeding and aggressive driving and that there is a corresponding unnoticeable decline in driver etiquette. It's likely quite noticeable. As I said, I am following this issue because I noticed a change but I don't think there is going to be any easy way to prove anything given how long it takes to collect statistics and a lot of what can provide proof is not recorded in any usable way. I also said the issue is well documented and you can find a lot from disparate sources. update: NHTSA launched a campaign to remind drivers not to speed recently. The campaign page has related information and statistics relevant here. https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/nhtsa-launches-new-campaign-remind-drivers-speeding-wrecks-lives https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/nhtsa-launches-new-camp... [1]: https://www.iihs.org/topics/bibliography/ref/2258 https://www.iihs.org/topics/bibliography/ref/2258 [2]: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/road-rage-shootings-guns-2021/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/road-rage-shootings-guns-2021/

lucb1e 4y ago
> Basically road rage murders increased a lot in 2021 and 2020 and all over the country it seems. These incidents are a tiny tiny fraction of all non-accidental injuries or unnatural deaths occurring. Yes it went up, yes you should pay attention and fix it if reasonably possible. But again: keep it in perspective. Singling out a metric that went up while, say, the total burden of disease (on the scale of comparing to other countries and across decades) essentially stayed the same[1] and... okay honestly I'm having trouble finding a metric where the USA improved over the last years (or, if 2021+ data is not yet available, even the last decade). Still, not sure that means things are suddenly bad. OP's sentiment and a lot of this thread is that the world is going to shit, which is objectively not true if the USA maintains its quality of life and not-so-wealthy/healthy places are continuously improving. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dalys-rate-from-all-causes?tab=chart&country=USA~NLD~AFG~CHN~BRA~ARG https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dalys-rate-from-all-cause...
- onetimeusename 4y ago
  ah ok not sure about going to shit, I probably wouldn't say that, so I don't agree with OP that things have gone to shit. I don't feel that way. I do think road safety worsened slightly but it's not Mad Max bad and I think eventually it will revert to the mean hopefully. Yes, it's a small increase in a long term decline of road deaths and I haven't seen second half of 2022 data yet but my last understanding was that traffic fatality may have peaked in 2022, idk. It's too early to tell and people might not care a year from now if things improve. I should have been more clear about what my position was because yes a lot of things worsened and are much higher concerns than road safety and it's definitely not a major issue but I just happen to be following it. It's just a temporary thing I imagine. But I do want to warn people just to be slightly more careful. But I am fascinated by some of the data because there has never been a lockdown before and I am curious if it affected driving. It could have implications for traffic safety, road design, and traffic shaping. I should've avoided any other implication.