5 ms·

You're not off base regarding the cars and the crime. It is well documented. There has been an increase in traffic accidents the last three years and I have bee

You're not off base regarding the cars and the crime. It is well documented. There has been an increase in traffic accidents the last three years and I have been following it because I wondered myself if I noticed it. NHTSA gives an update biannually I think. Road traffic deaths per mile driven increased in 2020, 2021, and 2022. I think it's still unknown if this is starting to revert to the pre pandemic mean but I haven't checked in about six months. It's related to the increase in crime although I have heard people suggest that there was simply a madness that occurred caused by empty streets during the covid lockdowns. Perhaps people got used to a lack of enforcement and being able to drive at much higher speeds on roads and they are set in their ways now. Police are somewhat unwilling to start enforcing this aggressively in my area because they have to take officers off of patrols and because it leads to an increase in violent officer encounters when they pull people over. The reality is they have bigger problems and not enough staff. The cars you are talking about with modded exhausts could be just the area you are living in but there is a car culture involving loud, fast, sporty cars and the people who drive these cars are pretty apathetic about whether it annoys anyone. It's unclear to me if this is growing but I think it is anecdotally. Maybe it's worth looking into this further. It wouldn't be hard to track car sales and the growth of modded Japanese cars. I remember this always being a thing since Fast and Furious but I thought it died out for a while. not sure =\ Regarding the subscription revenue thing I think this comes from business schools and public companies wanting to secure revenue streams for investors. I think it is definitely overdone. In the cloud business it kind of works but I think this model of business is being applied to other businesses due to its success. You see almost everyone trying to convert their business (ink for printers!) into some kind of a subscription model. It's probably just a dumb trend that's being propagated by 'experts'. This is also me speculating.

lucb1e 4y ago
> There has been an increase in traffic accidents the last three years and I have been following it because I wondered myself if I noticed it. Since you're not citing any, I'm going to just go off the first figures I found which go until 2021 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in... Yes it went up, yes you should pay attention and fix it if reasonably possible. But keep it in perspective: it went from a near all-time low of 1.1 "Fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled" in 2019 to 1.3 which is roughly the level of 2007. For every five hundred million miles, you'd see one more fatality (or, per hundred million miles, 0.2 more). You cannot convince me that anyone can tell this difference more reliably than a coin flip could, even if your job involved being on the road. Is a three-years-in-a-row increase unprecedented? No, just three years before the start of this three-year increase also saw the end of three consecutive years of increased road fatalities, and starting from roughly the same value (~1.1) to end up a bit less bad than now (1.2 vs. 1.3). How much above statistical significance that is, it doesn't say. Deaths aren't the whole story but after clicking on the 'more info' link that leads to <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_safety_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_safety_in_the_U...>, the graphs and tables are basically all labeled 'deaths', 'killed', and 'fatalities'. Maybe the crash rate is noticeable, but people aren't good at noticing slow trends. I'd not be surprised if the average person wouldn't notice a 50% increase (provided proportionate news coverage, i.e. same amount of air time per crash) when smeared out across a year and starting with a "rare but definitely not unheard of" value which is what road accidents currently are (I've never been in one after a decade of driving, but I know people that have been so it's not surprising to hear of it or to end up in one). More likely, the news coverage went up, or someone mentioned that the stats were up and then you registered subsequent crash reports more.
- onetimeusename 4y ago
  It's plausible people might not notice traffic deaths but this assumes there is absolutely no correlation with general driving experience and road safety which is unlikely. Also, this is thousands of extra deaths and on a year over year basis that happened since 2020 when it had been trending down previously so I think it's quite plausible that people notice and it happened rapidly. But that is just one particular statistic the NHTSA published to extrapolate from. There is an older study showing an increase in speeding incidents in 2020.[1] This is a 50% increase which seems likely to be noticeable although this study only counted a short period in one location. The problem with a lot of the statistics besides NHTSA traffic fatality I have tracked is they tend to be specific to one area and not nationwide. But, we also know speeding is associated with higher traffic fatality per the NHTSA. I kind of suspect you are just looking to downplay the statistics but there is another metric that can be used except it is not tracked by the NHTSA and could be biased. But a quick search for "increase in road rage incidents" will show that a number of states have had this issue since 2020. Unfortunately, there is a non profit that may have a bias collecting the data but it has been reported on.[2] Basically road rage murders increased a lot in 2021 and 2020 and all over the country it seems. This is not what is tracked by the NHTSA since these are murders as far as I can tell. To me it seems like quite a stretch that there can be increases in road rage incidents which are associated with speeding and aggressive driving and that there is a corresponding unnoticeable decline in driver etiquette. It's likely quite noticeable. As I said, I am following this issue because I noticed a change but I don't think there is going to be any easy way to prove anything given how long it takes to collect statistics and a lot of what can provide proof is not recorded in any usable way. I also said the issue is well documented and you can find a lot from disparate sources. update: NHTSA launched a campaign to remind drivers not to speed recently. The campaign page has related information and statistics relevant here. https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/nhtsa-launches-new-campaign-remind-drivers-speeding-wrecks-lives https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/nhtsa-launches-new-camp... [1]: https://www.iihs.org/topics/bibliography/ref/2258 https://www.iihs.org/topics/bibliography/ref/2258 [2]: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/road-rage-shootings-guns-2021/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/road-rage-shootings-guns-2021/
  - lucb1e 4y ago

lucb1e 4y ago

> There has been an increase in traffic accidents the last three years and I have been following it because I wondered myself if I noticed it. Since you're not citing any, I'm going to just go off the first figures I found which go until 2021 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in... Yes it went up, yes you should pay attention and fix it if reasonably possible. But keep it in perspective: it went from a near all-time low of 1.1 "Fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled" in 2019 to 1.3 which is roughly the level of 2007. For every five hundred million miles, you'd see one more fatality (or, per hundred million miles, 0.2 more). You cannot convince me that anyone can tell this difference more reliably than a coin flip could, even if your job involved being on the road. Is a three-years-in-a-row increase unprecedented? No, just three years before the start of this three-year increase also saw the end of three consecutive years of increased road fatalities, and starting from roughly the same value (~1.1) to end up a bit less bad than now (1.2 vs. 1.3). How much above statistical significance that is, it doesn't say. Deaths aren't the whole story but after clicking on the 'more info' link that leads to <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_safety_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_safety_in_the_U...>, the graphs and tables are basically all labeled 'deaths', 'killed', and 'fatalities'. Maybe the crash rate is noticeable, but people aren't good at noticing slow trends. I'd not be surprised if the average person wouldn't notice a 50% increase (provided proportionate news coverage, i.e. same amount of air time per crash) when smeared out across a year and starting with a "rare but definitely not unheard of" value which is what road accidents currently are (I've never been in one after a decade of driving, but I know people that have been so it's not surprising to hear of it or to end up in one). More likely, the news coverage went up, or someone mentioned that the stats were up and then you registered subsequent crash reports more.

onetimeusename 4y ago
It's plausible people might not notice traffic deaths but this assumes there is absolutely no correlation with general driving experience and road safety which is unlikely. Also, this is thousands of extra deaths and on a year over year basis that happened since 2020 when it had been trending down previously so I think it's quite plausible that people notice and it happened rapidly. But that is just one particular statistic the NHTSA published to extrapolate from. There is an older study showing an increase in speeding incidents in 2020.[1] This is a 50% increase which seems likely to be noticeable although this study only counted a short period in one location. The problem with a lot of the statistics besides NHTSA traffic fatality I have tracked is they tend to be specific to one area and not nationwide. But, we also know speeding is associated with higher traffic fatality per the NHTSA. I kind of suspect you are just looking to downplay the statistics but there is another metric that can be used except it is not tracked by the NHTSA and could be biased. But a quick search for "increase in road rage incidents" will show that a number of states have had this issue since 2020. Unfortunately, there is a non profit that may have a bias collecting the data but it has been reported on.[2] Basically road rage murders increased a lot in 2021 and 2020 and all over the country it seems. This is not what is tracked by the NHTSA since these are murders as far as I can tell. To me it seems like quite a stretch that there can be increases in road rage incidents which are associated with speeding and aggressive driving and that there is a corresponding unnoticeable decline in driver etiquette. It's likely quite noticeable. As I said, I am following this issue because I noticed a change but I don't think there is going to be any easy way to prove anything given how long it takes to collect statistics and a lot of what can provide proof is not recorded in any usable way. I also said the issue is well documented and you can find a lot from disparate sources. update: NHTSA launched a campaign to remind drivers not to speed recently. The campaign page has related information and statistics relevant here. https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/nhtsa-launches-new-campaign-remind-drivers-speeding-wrecks-lives https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/nhtsa-launches-new-camp... [1]: https://www.iihs.org/topics/bibliography/ref/2258 https://www.iihs.org/topics/bibliography/ref/2258 [2]: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/road-rage-shootings-guns-2021/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/road-rage-shootings-guns-2021/
- lucb1e 4y ago