4 ms·

EVs seem to not be a very well thought-out long term solution in general, unless radically different batteries with very high energy density can soon be develop

EVs seem to not be a very well thought-out long term solution in general, unless radically different batteries with very high energy density can soon be developed. Earth has 88 million tons of lithium, of which only 1/4 is economically feasible to mine. Each Tesla battery uses about 50 kg of Li, which means only about 18 Tesla batteries can be produced per ton, or about 396 million total Tesla batteries. Current global automobile production is about 80 million per year. If society were to totally switch to EVs, we would run out within a decade or so even assuming most of these cars used far less lithium (and thus had much shorter range, limiting practicality). This back of the napkin analysis also ignores all the other competing uses of Li...

triyambakam 4y ago
And the mining itself is very polluting
ravenstine 4y ago
Maybe governments are helping to prop up EVs as a means of covertly hoarding lithium. Even if EVs don't work out, having an abundance of lithium could be of tremendous value. /conspiracy
- zopa 4y ago
  This is in a timeline where governments are capable of long-term secret plans that move markets, but haven’t thought of strategic reserves?
jhp123 4y ago
Earth has many trillions of tons of lithium.
mjrpes 4y ago
Musk in 2022 said lithium makes up 5kg in a car battery: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502519-tesla-inc-tsla-ceo-elon-musk-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502519-tesla-inc-tsla-ceo-...
ajross 4y ago
> Earth has 88 million tons of lithium, of which only 1/4 is economically feasible to mine. This is outrageously spun. That number is (I assume, you don't cite a source) a count of total known reserves. That's not the way research extraction works; as industries develop (and this one is in its infancy) they discover new sources. This is the logic that led people to warn about "peak oil" in the 90's. They were hilariously wrong (because guess what? we "discovered" fracking as prices rose!). The "1/4 economically feasible" bit likewise assumes, again, current prices and production method. You don't think it's possible to reach a price equilibrium and technology balance that makes that worthwhile to extract? Why? It's happened for every other resource we use. And the big mistake here is that you're assuming that we throw the batteries in the trash when a vehicle reaches end of life. In point of fact battery elements are among the most effectively recycled materials in the modern economy. A junk NMC battery is, in essence, a very highly concentrated cobalt/lithium ore just waiting for smelting. We don't "run out" like you posit. At steady state, we need enough to cover growth and loss only. Basically: you're wrong. There's lots and lots of Li out there long term. In the nearer term, though, yeah: we can't mine remotely enough of the stuff and batteries will remain expensive as the industry grows.
- yawaramin 4y ago
  > as industries develop (and this one is in its infancy) they discover new sources. And what do you imagine they will do with those new sources? Leave them pristine while they elegantly and cleanly suck out only the required lithium? No, they will destroy those ecologies with massive mining operations which will generate tons of waste, toxic chemicals, and CO2. In our quest to reduce carbon emissions it seems we are willing to do everything we can to destroy our habitable environment.
  - thinkcontext 4y ago
    How are you quantifying those mining externalities compared to other mining activity or compared to the reduced externalities from ICE vehicles?
    - 4y ago
jakewins 4y ago
Your number is off by eight orders of magnitude. Lithium is one of the most common elements on the planet. Earths crust contains ~0.002-0.006% Li by weight, or 1,220,000,000 million tonnes if you use the low estimate. You seem to have confused the concept of "known reserves" - the 88M number is deposits that we've paid to map out and know exactly where they are. As current deposits empty out, companies will invest in mapping out others.
diebeforei485 4y ago
> Each Tesla battery uses about 50 kg of Li Do you have a source for this figure?
pasttense01 4y ago
If lithium gets too expensive you use alternative materials for car batteries. A lot of research is pursuing this.

triyambakam 4y ago

And the mining itself is very polluting

ravenstine 4y ago

Maybe governments are helping to prop up EVs as a means of covertly hoarding lithium. Even if EVs don't work out, having an abundance of lithium could be of tremendous value. /conspiracy

zopa 4y ago
This is in a timeline where governments are capable of long-term secret plans that move markets, but haven’t thought of strategic reserves?

jhp123 4y ago

Earth has many trillions of tons of lithium.

mjrpes 4y ago

Musk in 2022 said lithium makes up 5kg in a car battery: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502519-tesla-inc-tsla-ceo-elon-musk-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502519-tesla-inc-tsla-ceo-...

ajross 4y ago

> Earth has 88 million tons of lithium, of which only 1/4 is economically feasible to mine. This is outrageously spun. That number is (I assume, you don't cite a source) a count of total known reserves. That's not the way research extraction works; as industries develop (and this one is in its infancy) they discover new sources. This is the logic that led people to warn about "peak oil" in the 90's. They were hilariously wrong (because guess what? we "discovered" fracking as prices rose!). The "1/4 economically feasible" bit likewise assumes, again, current prices and production method. You don't think it's possible to reach a price equilibrium and technology balance that makes that worthwhile to extract? Why? It's happened for every other resource we use. And the big mistake here is that you're assuming that we throw the batteries in the trash when a vehicle reaches end of life. In point of fact battery elements are among the most effectively recycled materials in the modern economy. A junk NMC battery is, in essence, a very highly concentrated cobalt/lithium ore just waiting for smelting. We don't "run out" like you posit. At steady state, we need enough to cover growth and loss only. Basically: you're wrong. There's lots and lots of Li out there long term. In the nearer term, though, yeah: we can't mine remotely enough of the stuff and batteries will remain expensive as the industry grows.

yawaramin 4y ago
> as industries develop (and this one is in its infancy) they discover new sources. And what do you imagine they will do with those new sources? Leave them pristine while they elegantly and cleanly suck out only the required lithium? No, they will destroy those ecologies with massive mining operations which will generate tons of waste, toxic chemicals, and CO2. In our quest to reduce carbon emissions it seems we are willing to do everything we can to destroy our habitable environment.
- thinkcontext 4y ago
  How are you quantifying those mining externalities compared to other mining activity or compared to the reduced externalities from ICE vehicles?
  - 4y ago

jakewins 4y ago

Your number is off by eight orders of magnitude. Lithium is one of the most common elements on the planet. Earths crust contains ~0.002-0.006% Li by weight, or 1,220,000,000 million tonnes if you use the low estimate. You seem to have confused the concept of "known reserves" - the 88M number is deposits that we've paid to map out and know exactly where they are. As current deposits empty out, companies will invest in mapping out others.

diebeforei485 4y ago

> Each Tesla battery uses about 50 kg of Li Do you have a source for this figure?

pasttense01 4y ago

If lithium gets too expensive you use alternative materials for car batteries. A lot of research is pursuing this.