4 ms·

U.S. general warns troops that war with China is possible in two years

9 points by MilnerRoute 4y ago

xrayarx 4y ago
https://archive.is/ekdKO https://archive.is/ekdKO
xrayarx 4y ago
Quotes: A U.S. defense official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said that Minihan’s comments “are not representative of the department’s view on China.” But U.S. officials have offered mixed messages on whether and when China might attempt to take Taiwan. In 2021, Adm. Phil Davidson, then the chief of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, predicted Beijing could make such an attempt by 2027. That timeline has since been dubbed “the Davidson window” by some national security scholars. The Navy’s top officer, Adm. Mike Gilday, said in October that his service needs to prepare for “a 2022 window or potentially a 2023 window. I can’t rule that out. I don’t mean at all to be alarmist by saying that, it’s just that we can’t wish that away.”
JimtheCoder 4y ago
More pressure to get this Ukrainian (mis)adventure wrapped up ASAP I guess?
- credit_guy 4y ago
  Why? Not sure if you've noticed, but the US is not fighting in this war.
  - JimtheCoder 4y ago
    Would the world not be in a much better position to deal with a situation in Taiwan/South China Sea if there was not conflict occurring in Ukraine?
    - credit_guy 4y ago
      No. If a deal is reached to freeze the conflict, the US needs to keep being equally prepared to deal with another Russian (mis)adventure, especially if there's a Taiwan issue going on. Other than that, what do you mean pressure to end the Russia-Ukraine war? Russia can end it at any point by withdrawing to its internationally recognized borders, and agreeing to pay reparations (which would probably be in the trillions). Ukraine can't end the war unilaterally. The US could quicken the end result by shipping a ton of advanced weapons. But that can result in a nuclear war. What's your proposal?
      - JimtheCoder 4y ago
        You just went from "Not sure if you've noticed, but the US is not fighting in this war." to "No. If a deal is reached to freeze the conflict, the US needs to keep being equally prepared to deal with another Russian (mis)adventure" There is no doubt that this is a big distraction for everyone, and the world would be in a better place if it is resolved. That was my original point - we need to get this situation wrapped up ASAP.
        credit_guy 4y ago
        You are trying to use some nice wording. But it's quite clear you are saying we should give the Russians a pass. Strategically, this would be wrong. You still need to watch your back. The conflict would in no way be "resolved". Aside from that, it is just plain wrong to let Putin get away with perpetrating one of the greatest crimes since WW2.
        JimtheCoder 4y ago
        "You are trying to use some nice wording. But it's quite clear you are saying we should give the Russians a pass." I'm not even sure what to say to this... Go back and read what I have posted, and then read your responses. I made a low effort post stating that this situation needs to get dealt with ASAP, and somehow you have turned this into me being a Russia sympathizer. Nothing I have posted indicates I think we should give the Russians a pass, or get away with anything. I have merely stated... "More pressure to get this Ukrainian (mis)adventure wrapped up ASAP I guess?" That continues to be my response. I anxiously await your next attempt to look intellectually superior to me. Laughing is good for the soul, after all.
dirtyid 4y ago
> Minihan, who as head of Air Mobility Command Domestic acquisition politics, current USAF tanking fleet a fraction of what's needed to persecute stand off war outside of first island chain for air force. AF wants grab piece of pie like everyone else, and this man wants more tankers, which would take decade+ to acquire in sufficient numbers let alone by 2025. > cited the 2024 presidential elections in Taiwan and the United States as part of his rationale That said, actually way less stupid than Davidson Window which is capability based, i.e. by 2027 PRC should be able to take TW and hence likely will. Minihan claims on TW capability based, i.e. 2024 TW election may declare independence and compel PRC to act, ready or not.
- samstave 4y ago
  Dont we have enough re-commisionable units in the mothball storage fleet that could more quickly be converted to tankers? Also ; fuck war.
  - dirtyid 4y ago
    Current workhorse platform that can be acquired without much issue are KC46As (767s), I think US gov can scrape together estimated 50-150 additional airframes (currently ~480) that analysts think will be needed to augment PRC contingency. Which involves either bridging with more KC46As until 2040s or cleansheet Lockheed LMXT for KC-Z program. Regardless, logistics of acquiring/training expanded fleet is much longer than 2 year affair, hence the 2025 timeline is more of a sales pitch than warning.
eternalban 4y ago
“fire a clip into a 7-meter target with the full understanding that unrepentant lethality matters most”. People keep making fun of us not using the metric system but here you go. At the highest levels we're thinking in meters. But it could also be a service thing. The day a "leaked memo" from a Marine general barks about chewing meters of barbed wire will mark the day we will fully embrace the metric system.
simonblack 4y ago
and the possibility that Americans will not be paying attention until it is too late. It IS too late. The US is only guaranteed to win against China if it initiates the conflict by 2020. It's 2023 already? Dang!!

9 points by MilnerRoute 4y ago

https://archive.is/ekdKO https://archive.is/ekdKO

Quotes: A U.S. defense official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said that Minihan’s comments “are not representative of the department’s view on China.” But U.S. officials have offered mixed messages on whether and when China might attempt to take Taiwan. In 2021, Adm. Phil Davidson, then the chief of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, predicted Beijing could make such an attempt by 2027. That timeline has since been dubbed “the Davidson window” by some national security scholars. The Navy’s top officer, Adm. Mike Gilday, said in October that his service needs to prepare for “a 2022 window or potentially a 2023 window. I can’t rule that out. I don’t mean at all to be alarmist by saying that, it’s just that we can’t wish that away.”

JimtheCoder 4y ago

More pressure to get this Ukrainian (mis)adventure wrapped up ASAP I guess?

credit_guy 4y ago
Why? Not sure if you've noticed, but the US is not fighting in this war.
- JimtheCoder 4y ago
  Would the world not be in a much better position to deal with a situation in Taiwan/South China Sea if there was not conflict occurring in Ukraine?
  - credit_guy 4y ago
    No. If a deal is reached to freeze the conflict, the US needs to keep being equally prepared to deal with another Russian (mis)adventure, especially if there's a Taiwan issue going on. Other than that, what do you mean pressure to end the Russia-Ukraine war? Russia can end it at any point by withdrawing to its internationally recognized borders, and agreeing to pay reparations (which would probably be in the trillions). Ukraine can't end the war unilaterally. The US could quicken the end result by shipping a ton of advanced weapons. But that can result in a nuclear war. What's your proposal?
    - JimtheCoder 4y ago
      You just went from "Not sure if you've noticed, but the US is not fighting in this war." to "No. If a deal is reached to freeze the conflict, the US needs to keep being equally prepared to deal with another Russian (mis)adventure" There is no doubt that this is a big distraction for everyone, and the world would be in a better place if it is resolved. That was my original point - we need to get this situation wrapped up ASAP.
      - credit_guy 4y ago
        You are trying to use some nice wording. But it's quite clear you are saying we should give the Russians a pass. Strategically, this would be wrong. You still need to watch your back. The conflict would in no way be "resolved". Aside from that, it is just plain wrong to let Putin get away with perpetrating one of the greatest crimes since WW2.
        JimtheCoder 4y ago
        "You are trying to use some nice wording. But it's quite clear you are saying we should give the Russians a pass." I'm not even sure what to say to this... Go back and read what I have posted, and then read your responses. I made a low effort post stating that this situation needs to get dealt with ASAP, and somehow you have turned this into me being a Russia sympathizer. Nothing I have posted indicates I think we should give the Russians a pass, or get away with anything. I have merely stated... "More pressure to get this Ukrainian (mis)adventure wrapped up ASAP I guess?" That continues to be my response. I anxiously await your next attempt to look intellectually superior to me. Laughing is good for the soul, after all.

dirtyid 4y ago

> Minihan, who as head of Air Mobility Command Domestic acquisition politics, current USAF tanking fleet a fraction of what's needed to persecute stand off war outside of first island chain for air force. AF wants grab piece of pie like everyone else, and this man wants more tankers, which would take decade+ to acquire in sufficient numbers let alone by 2025. > cited the 2024 presidential elections in Taiwan and the United States as part of his rationale That said, actually way less stupid than Davidson Window which is capability based, i.e. by 2027 PRC should be able to take TW and hence likely will. Minihan claims on TW capability based, i.e. 2024 TW election may declare independence and compel PRC to act, ready or not.

samstave 4y ago
Dont we have enough re-commisionable units in the mothball storage fleet that could more quickly be converted to tankers? Also ; fuck war.
- dirtyid 4y ago
  Current workhorse platform that can be acquired without much issue are KC46As (767s), I think US gov can scrape together estimated 50-150 additional airframes (currently ~480) that analysts think will be needed to augment PRC contingency. Which involves either bridging with more KC46As until 2040s or cleansheet Lockheed LMXT for KC-Z program. Regardless, logistics of acquiring/training expanded fleet is much longer than 2 year affair, hence the 2025 timeline is more of a sales pitch than warning.

eternalban 4y ago

“fire a clip into a 7-meter target with the full understanding that unrepentant lethality matters most”. People keep making fun of us not using the metric system but here you go. At the highest levels we're thinking in meters. But it could also be a service thing. The day a "leaked memo" from a Marine general barks about chewing meters of barbed wire will mark the day we will fully embrace the metric system.

simonblack 4y ago

and the possibility that Americans will not be paying attention until it is too late. It IS too late. The US is only guaranteed to win against China if it initiates the conflict by 2020. It's 2023 already? Dang!!