4 ms·

Russian generals aren't stupid, they know the moment they use tactical nukes on Ukraine's territory, Ukrainians will get the nukes from UK and US and will be us

by type0 4y ago

Russian generals aren't stupid, they know the moment they use tactical nukes on Ukraine's territory, Ukrainians will get the nukes from UK and US and will be using that on Russian territories. The argument is very simple, the West will be upholding the Budapest memorandum. Even China knows the deal and already told Putin to calm down.

sorokod 4y ago
It is highly unlikely that the Russian generals are the ones that get to make such decisions.
- type0 4y ago
  It's not unlikely, it is the reality. There is no red nuclear button that Putin can press, no matter what he wants everyone to believe. The command chain is pretty long, even in Russia.
  - sorokod 4y ago
    Can you share the information that makes you state that "it is the reality" that the Russian military can launch nuclear weapons without political approval? You may want to consider how would that work in an authoritarian country where the politicians have a deep mistrust of the military. Relevant: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx5mTslkUBs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx5mTslkUBs
    - morpheos137 4y ago
      Maybe he saw it in a Reddit thread?
    - verdverm 4y ago
      It is possible without approval and almost happened once before, were it not for one Russian who decided not to return fire https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_al... At the same time, an order from the top to launch first will certainly require multiple individuals to approve and obey
      - morpheos137 4y ago
        >At the same time, an order from the top to launch first will certainly require multiple individuals to approve and obey True in all nuclear powers. The commenter seemed to imply mutiny would be likely. That would be one hell of a game of Russian roulette to pin one's hope of salvation on his opponent's dysfunction. certainly not one I'd like to play.
  - IAmGraydon 4y ago
    This comment has been making the rounds since Feb 2022 and it’s nothing but a coping mechanism that makes you feel like one madman can’t end the world. Putin has eliminated all but the yes men. If he wants to launch, they will launch.
verdverm 4y ago
Ukraine will not get nukes from the US/UK so they can launch them. They aren't allowed to use the current HIMARs systems against targets in Russia. If Ukraine did, they probably wouldn't keep getting them. It's part of how we keep escalation as minimal as possible. The West would most likely enter the war using conventional weapons. Launching a nuke back is the escalation path to thermonuclear weapons wiping out humanity. Or in other words, the west does not have to respond to nukes with nukes...

by type0 4y ago

sorokod 4y ago

It is highly unlikely that the Russian generals are the ones that get to make such decisions.

type0 4y ago
It's not unlikely, it is the reality. There is no red nuclear button that Putin can press, no matter what he wants everyone to believe. The command chain is pretty long, even in Russia.
- sorokod 4y ago
  Can you share the information that makes you state that "it is the reality" that the Russian military can launch nuclear weapons without political approval? You may want to consider how would that work in an authoritarian country where the politicians have a deep mistrust of the military. Relevant: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx5mTslkUBs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx5mTslkUBs
  - morpheos137 4y ago
    Maybe he saw it in a Reddit thread?
  - verdverm 4y ago
    It is possible without approval and almost happened once before, were it not for one Russian who decided not to return fire https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_al... At the same time, an order from the top to launch first will certainly require multiple individuals to approve and obey
    - morpheos137 4y ago
      >At the same time, an order from the top to launch first will certainly require multiple individuals to approve and obey True in all nuclear powers. The commenter seemed to imply mutiny would be likely. That would be one hell of a game of Russian roulette to pin one's hope of salvation on his opponent's dysfunction. certainly not one I'd like to play.
- IAmGraydon 4y ago
  This comment has been making the rounds since Feb 2022 and it’s nothing but a coping mechanism that makes you feel like one madman can’t end the world. Putin has eliminated all but the yes men. If he wants to launch, they will launch.

verdverm 4y ago

Ukraine will not get nukes from the US/UK so they can launch them. They aren't allowed to use the current HIMARs systems against targets in Russia. If Ukraine did, they probably wouldn't keep getting them. It's part of how we keep escalation as minimal as possible. The West would most likely enter the war using conventional weapons. Launching a nuke back is the escalation path to thermonuclear weapons wiping out humanity. Or in other words, the west does not have to respond to nukes with nukes...