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If Russia Goes Nuclear: Three Scenarios for the Ukraine War
- PaulHoule 4y agoA single tactical nuclear weapon is not that destructive or decisive. A major idea in cold war thinking about the European theater is that forces might be concentrated or dispersed, one aspect of which is that dispersed forces are not so vulnerable to tactical nuclear weapons. Things may have changed but at the start of the war I was always reading about units with names like "such-and-such brigade (detached)" where "detached" means that the units are not attached to a division as most units are. Such a force is used to operating in a dispersed manner and it is not going to form massive concentrations of forces that are easy to nuke.
- verdverm 4y ago> A single tactical nuclear weapon is not that destructive or decisive On a battlefield, you are correct. In terms of policy, politics, and precedent, it would be significant. For whom or which side depends on the response to such an event.
- abudabi123 4y agoThe dial was set closer to when than if at 90 seconds before The End by scientists who know a thing or two.
- IAmGraydon 4y agoI’m sorry, what?
- toomuchtodo 4y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/ https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/ https://youtu.be/KxB9dM0u4mU https://youtu.be/KxB9dM0u4mU
- type0 4y agoRussian generals aren't stupid, they know the moment they use tactical nukes on Ukraine's territory, Ukrainians will get the nukes from UK and US and will be using that on Russian territories. The argument is very simple, the West will be upholding the Budapest memorandum. Even China knows the deal and already told Putin to calm down.
- sorokod 4y agoIt is highly unlikely that the Russian generals are the ones that get to make such decisions.
- type0 4y agoIt's not unlikely, it is the reality. There is no red nuclear button that Putin can press, no matter what he wants everyone to believe. The command chain is pretty long, even in Russia.
- sorokod 4y agoCan you share the information that makes you state that "it is the reality" that the Russian military can launch nuclear weapons without political approval? You may want to consider how would that work in an authoritarian country where the politicians have a deep mistrust of the military. Relevant: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx5mTslkUBs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx5mTslkUBs
- morpheos137 4y agoMaybe he saw it in a Reddit thread?
- verdverm 4y agoIt is possible without approval and almost happened once before, were it not for one Russian who decided not to return fire https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_al... At the same time, an order from the top to launch first will certainly require multiple individuals to approve and obey