5 ms·

Without nuclear weapons, direct conventional war is far more likely.

consumer451 4y ago
Thanks for replying. While I agree, direct conventional war has a much lower likelihood of ending civilization. To be very cold about it, sure lots of people will die in direct conventional war, but they would be measured in the hundreds of thousands, not tens or hundreds of millions. Conventional war is also localized. Imagine the global economic effects (not just $, but say food and fertilizer distribution) of having clouds of fallout circling the planet. COVID lock-down ^10? ^100? ^1000?
- throwaway4aday 4y ago
  > not tens or hundreds of millions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I_casualties https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I_casualties https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties#:~:text=An%20estimated%20total%20of%2070,war%2Drelated%20disease%20and%20famine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties#:~:tex.... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_War_casualties https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_War_casualties I wonder if there's an analogous metric to wtfpm that applies to historical ignorance because it sure as hell seems to be increasing lately.
  - consumer451 4y ago
    I personally just don't see conventional war going to those numbers today, unless we completely unravel economic interdependence.
    - cwmoore 4y ago
      *ding* that would do it
    - hallway_monitor 4y ago
      If there's one good thing about global capitalism, it's that it has replaced outright violence as the best way to gain power!
    - kneebonian 4y ago
      I've posted about this too many times to repeat so your wrong WW1 yada yada
    - throwaway4aday 4y ago
      That's the same line of thinking that most people had prior to WW1 so I wouldn't be so sure. s/Germany/China/g and things will unravel pretty fast.
    - reisse 4y ago
      Syrian civil war is above 1m military and civilian casualties. War in Yemen and US invasion in Iraq are close.
- gdy 4y ago
  26 millions of Soviet citizens died in the World War 2. Unless you think that Untermensch aren't people.
epistemer 4y ago
It even constrains what is done in conventional war too. Firebombing on the level of Dresden or Tokoyo would also lead to nuclear war now so those brutal tactics can't really be used anymore either. We also can't underestimate with disarmament the dangerous equilibrium of a country lying about disarmament while believing most other countries have disarmed. We might be forming a new dangerous equilibrium now though anyway with fighting a proxy war against a conventionally far weaker nuclear power.
- cableshaft 4y ago
  Not the first time a proxy war was fought with them. The Cold War was basically four decades of proxy wars between the US and Russia. Doesn't make this not dangerous, of course. It was a dangerous game back then, too.
  - dragonwriter 4y ago
    > The Cold War was basically four decades of proxy wars between the US and Russia. Including direct conflict that both sides pretended to be proxy conflict to manage public demands for escalation abd political fallout in the event of defeat.

Thanks for replying. While I agree, direct conventional war has a much lower likelihood of ending civilization. To be very cold about it, sure lots of people will die in direct conventional war, but they would be measured in the hundreds of thousands, not tens or hundreds of millions. Conventional war is also localized. Imagine the global economic effects (not just $, but say food and fertilizer distribution) of having clouds of fallout circling the planet. COVID lock-down ^10? ^100? ^1000?

throwaway4aday 4y ago
> not tens or hundreds of millions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I_casualties https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I_casualties https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties#:~:text=An%20estimated%20total%20of%2070,war%2Drelated%20disease%20and%20famine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties#:~:tex.... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_War_casualties https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_War_casualties I wonder if there's an analogous metric to wtfpm that applies to historical ignorance because it sure as hell seems to be increasing lately.
- consumer451 4y ago
  I personally just don't see conventional war going to those numbers today, unless we completely unravel economic interdependence.
  - cwmoore 4y ago
    *ding* that would do it
  - hallway_monitor 4y ago
    If there's one good thing about global capitalism, it's that it has replaced outright violence as the best way to gain power!
  - kneebonian 4y ago
    I've posted about this too many times to repeat so your wrong WW1 yada yada
  - throwaway4aday 4y ago
    That's the same line of thinking that most people had prior to WW1 so I wouldn't be so sure. s/Germany/China/g and things will unravel pretty fast.
  - reisse 4y ago
    Syrian civil war is above 1m military and civilian casualties. War in Yemen and US invasion in Iraq are close.
gdy 4y ago
26 millions of Soviet citizens died in the World War 2. Unless you think that Untermensch aren't people.

epistemer 4y ago

It even constrains what is done in conventional war too. Firebombing on the level of Dresden or Tokoyo would also lead to nuclear war now so those brutal tactics can't really be used anymore either. We also can't underestimate with disarmament the dangerous equilibrium of a country lying about disarmament while believing most other countries have disarmed. We might be forming a new dangerous equilibrium now though anyway with fighting a proxy war against a conventionally far weaker nuclear power.

cableshaft 4y ago
Not the first time a proxy war was fought with them. The Cold War was basically four decades of proxy wars between the US and Russia. Doesn't make this not dangerous, of course. It was a dangerous game back then, too.
- dragonwriter 4y ago
  > The Cold War was basically four decades of proxy wars between the US and Russia. Including direct conflict that both sides pretended to be proxy conflict to manage public demands for escalation abd political fallout in the event of defeat.