Skimming that post, it seems to be saying that either OpenAI will fail quickly, in which case MS takes the downside, or it will create AGI, in which case OpenAI

Skimming that post, it seems to be saying that either OpenAI will fail quickly, in which case MS takes the downside, or it will create AGI, in which case OpenAI will own something of incomparable value. However, there's no reason to assume that their machine learning business won't mature into something that is only worth on the order of $10^11 - $10^12.