5 ms·

What's been interesting me with this is how much novelty there is in observing a new pandemic virus hit humanity (or any species for that matter) with the atten

by maegul 4y ago

What's been interesting me with this is how much novelty there is in observing a new pandemic virus hit humanity (or any species for that matter) with the attention and accuracy of modern medicine and population statistics. It could just be (does anyone know?) that when new viruses pop up like this, the target species often just takes a global health hit that includes not just deaths and acute illnesses but other effects on broader time scales. Maybe this is normal in human, primate or even mammalian history, part of the bumpy evolutionary road, but we didn't really know how much of an effect there is to be had until now, or the soon future? If true, it's kind of a kick in the guts for modern humanity, as we've probably had a good run on pathogens in recent history (at least globally, with the spanish flu being the obvious recent precedent) and didn't really appreciate that there are still "monsters" lurking out there in Earth's shadows that we're not really "better" than. I also wonder, if there's truth to the above, to what extent modernity, or at least this (perhaps) middling phase of it, is part of the problem, where high urban population densities can transform what were relatively rare and local pandemics into more common, global and devastating affairs ... ?

7952 4y ago
On your point about modernity. I think the main risk factor is actually close proximity to animals and poor hygiene around them. That is what allows the rare event of a jump between species to happen. A modern society could reduce this risk a lot.
- salawat 4y ago
  ...That and not doing Gain of Function research where we deliberately go out of the way to serial passage/DNA clone/chimera viruses to make them more infectious. Lets be real here. No one hangs out in bat caves for the lulz.
  - 7952 4y ago
    You are right, transmission from animals is really difficult. But that also explains why those transferred diseases can be so dangerous. We don't have existing immunity because humans don't hang out in bat caves. And the threat is very real when we live in close proximity to domesticated animals or eat bush meat. And people do both of those things. There is a very long list of infectious diseases that started in animals. We need to be careful. And even in richer countries the threat still exists. People keep chickens in the garden. Environmental surveys look for bats. We have factory farms and abbatoirs.
graeme 4y ago
Some have theorized this and there certainly are a few examples. For examples syphllis seemed especially severe when it first appeared in Europe, and this was probably because it was a novel disease. But thing is it also is just severe and didn’t become just another cold or just another bacteria. Some viruses just knock a species out, like this virus which gives Tasmanian Devils a lethal facial cancer: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devil_facial_tumour_disease https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devil_facial_tumour_disease There’s a lot of just-so stories about how things are bad till your immune system strengthens upon encountering all the viruses and then everything is ok. Bollocks. Half of kids used to die before adulthood and it was mostly due to disease. We associate disease as being mostly mild now because we took decisive action over a couple centuries to reduce, treat or prevent the worst diseases. We were left with the ones that seem inconsequential, and the flu, which was consequential. The bet is that Sars-cov-2 is inconsequential because it shares a transmission mechanism with the other inconsequential viruses and because it often feels inconsequential in the acute phase. Hopefully so, we won’t really know the long term effects for a long time. Post-polio syndrome takes decades to manifest in a patient, as does multiple sclerosis from EBV.
- jacquesm 4y ago
  > Half of kids used to die before adulthood and it was mostly due to disease. Yes, and this is why the current strain of anti-vaxx sentiment is so dangerous: if enough people buy into that crap then eventually we'll get below the immunity levels required for these diseases to remain suppressed, there is a noticeable uptick in unvaccinated kids since COVID, about -1% for now which is manageable. But if it would get higher it could lead to trouble. And then there are the vaccinations that have simply been postponed on account of COVID-19: https://www.who.int/news/item/22-05-2020-at-least-80-million-children-under-one-at-risk-of-diseases-such-as-diphtheria-measles-and-polio-as-covid-19-disrupts-routine-vaccination-efforts-warn-gavi-who-and-unicef https://www.who.int/news/item/22-05-2020-at-least-80-million... Over time this will eventually be caught up.
  - ldldlsosj 4y ago
    [flagged]

by maegul 4y ago

7952 4y ago

On your point about modernity. I think the main risk factor is actually close proximity to animals and poor hygiene around them. That is what allows the rare event of a jump between species to happen. A modern society could reduce this risk a lot.

salawat 4y ago
...That and not doing Gain of Function research where we deliberately go out of the way to serial passage/DNA clone/chimera viruses to make them more infectious. Lets be real here. No one hangs out in bat caves for the lulz.
- 7952 4y ago
  You are right, transmission from animals is really difficult. But that also explains why those transferred diseases can be so dangerous. We don't have existing immunity because humans don't hang out in bat caves. And the threat is very real when we live in close proximity to domesticated animals or eat bush meat. And people do both of those things. There is a very long list of infectious diseases that started in animals. We need to be careful. And even in richer countries the threat still exists. People keep chickens in the garden. Environmental surveys look for bats. We have factory farms and abbatoirs.

graeme 4y ago

Some have theorized this and there certainly are a few examples. For examples syphllis seemed especially severe when it first appeared in Europe, and this was probably because it was a novel disease. But thing is it also is just severe and didn’t become just another cold or just another bacteria. Some viruses just knock a species out, like this virus which gives Tasmanian Devils a lethal facial cancer: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devil_facial_tumour_disease https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devil_facial_tumour_disease There’s a lot of just-so stories about how things are bad till your immune system strengthens upon encountering all the viruses and then everything is ok. Bollocks. Half of kids used to die before adulthood and it was mostly due to disease. We associate disease as being mostly mild now because we took decisive action over a couple centuries to reduce, treat or prevent the worst diseases. We were left with the ones that seem inconsequential, and the flu, which was consequential. The bet is that Sars-cov-2 is inconsequential because it shares a transmission mechanism with the other inconsequential viruses and because it often feels inconsequential in the acute phase. Hopefully so, we won’t really know the long term effects for a long time. Post-polio syndrome takes decades to manifest in a patient, as does multiple sclerosis from EBV.

jacquesm 4y ago
> Half of kids used to die before adulthood and it was mostly due to disease. Yes, and this is why the current strain of anti-vaxx sentiment is so dangerous: if enough people buy into that crap then eventually we'll get below the immunity levels required for these diseases to remain suppressed, there is a noticeable uptick in unvaccinated kids since COVID, about -1% for now which is manageable. But if it would get higher it could lead to trouble. And then there are the vaccinations that have simply been postponed on account of COVID-19: https://www.who.int/news/item/22-05-2020-at-least-80-million-children-under-one-at-risk-of-diseases-such-as-diphtheria-measles-and-polio-as-covid-19-disrupts-routine-vaccination-efforts-warn-gavi-who-and-unicef https://www.who.int/news/item/22-05-2020-at-least-80-million... Over time this will eventually be caught up.
- ldldlsosj 4y ago
  [flagged]