> The latent schizophrenic impulse to impart consciousness to any-old-object in the world is here being exploited by peddlers of technology. He is talking abou

> The latent schizophrenic impulse to impart consciousness to any-old-object in the world is here being exploited by peddlers of technology. He is talking about the concept of exploitability. I'm addressing that context by expanding it to focus on other relevant parts of the classification task - focusing on the false positives screens off information that is critical for estimating the exploitability of a strategy. When you include other things, like true positives and true negatives, you get a very different expected outcome. Notable, you can't not do this and be reasoning correctly. One of the interesting and counterintuitive aspects of decision making under imperfect information which differentiates it with decision making under perfect information is that decision points influence your expected value calculations even when you are not in that situation. For example, if you are investing in a startup A and it is going to fail, that doesn't mean you shouldn't invest in that startup, because the results of investing in startup B, startup C, and startup D all have an impact on whether you should invest in startup A. For good writing on this, see Paul Graham. For great writing on this, read research in game theoretic reasoning. But all of this is pointless to talk about if we don't actually disagree. So... If you really really disagree with me, in my world, the best way for us to settle this is with a bet. I'll bet you $10,000 that you, as a human playing without the aid of software, will lose to a chess playing program of my choosing which has the property of reasoning about your moves with the expectation that you are a stronger player than you actually are. I think the contention that an agent which overestimates others being exploitable is false. A happy accident here is that if I'm wrong to be at all impressed with AI, you shouldn't just be able to win because of the "exploitable" tendency it has to assume its opponent is stronger than it should. You should also be able to be much better than it, because it isn't like AI is better than human in decision making... right? All hype, no substance, nothing to worry about?