3 ms·

What's the relationship between crime rates and number of officers?

by eli 4y ago

xyzzyz 4y ago
It is generally expected, and in fact almost always the case, that if you hire people to deal with a specific problem, hiring more of them will result in less of this problem, and conversely, hiring fewer will result in having more of that problem. At some point, of course, one would expect to see diminishing returns. However, it is beyond clear by looking at other similar countries, our past, recent evidence in police budget reductions etc., that we are nowhere near close to that.
- anigbrowl 4y ago
  Actually it appears that the more police you have the more misdemeanor arrests result, but this does not impact the clearance rate for violent felonies. In other words you get more hall monitors but not necessarily more detectives. https://academic.oup.com/bjc/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/bjc/azac005/6568129?redirectedFrom=fulltext&login=false https://academic.oup.com/bjc/advance-article-abstract/doi/10... recent evidence in police budget reductions Only about 8% of US cities have reallocated police founding elsewhere; most have increased it since 2020, and in nearly half of jurisdictions it has risen by >10%. https://abcnews.go.com/US/defunding-claims-police-funding-increased-us-cities/story?id=91511971 https://abcnews.go.com/US/defunding-claims-police-funding-in... The US also spends more than most other developed countries as a % of GDP, though less than Russia and Costa Rica: https://www.workandmoney.com/s/police-spending-by-country-984701cbc1c340e9 https://www.workandmoney.com/s/police-spending-by-country-98...
  - xyzzyz 4y ago
    > Actually it appears that the more police you have the more misdemeanor arrests result, but this does not impact the clearance rate for violent felonies. I don't have access to this study, so I cannot really comment on it, but this is just one study. When you take the evidence as a whole, the picture is quite different. See for example this systematic review, which looked at 49 separate studies and it did find that, yes, "police presence has mostly crime reduction effects on crimes related to motor theft, property, violence and guns. Police presence also reduces calls for service and improves traffic behaviour". Additionally, these misdemeanor arrests have been very useful in reducing violent crime rate in NYC. NYC cops under Giuliani and Bloomberg would harass people for trivial shit, find guns on them that they weren't allowed to possess, and then throw the book at them for it. This resulted in carrying a gun being too risky activity for NYC criminals, which resulted in great reduction in shootings, homicide, and other crime involving use of guns like robbery and carjacking. Now, of course, one might object to this strategy, based on morality or legality of it, but what you cannot object to is whether it worked, because it clearly did. This is my point: police activity reduces crime. > Only about 8% of US cities have reallocated police founding elsewhere; most have increased it since 2020, and in nearly half of jurisdictions it has risen by >10%. Given that inflation since 2020 has been over 10%, that means that more than half of jurisdiction did cut police funding in real terms. > The US also spends more than most other developed countries as a % of GDP, though less than Russia and Costa Rica: https://www.workandmoney.com/s/police-spending-by-country-98 https://www.workandmoney.com/s/police-spending-by-country-98... And Russia and Costa Rica indeed have crime rates similar to ours. Rather more importantly than spend, though, is how much we actually get for it. Seems like policing is another one of those fields, like medicine and education, where we spend more than other countries as a percentage of GDP, but get less value for the spend. This is why I'm talking about actual metrics like police officers per capita, not dollars spent on policing.
smt88 4y ago
Adding officers doesn't lower crime. I've never seen data showing that it does. https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/relationship-between-police-presence-and-crime-deterrence https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/relation...
- xyzzyz 4y ago
  Have you ever looked for it? Here is a systematic review of available evidence: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10610-021-09500-8 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10610-021-09500-8 > The systematic search strategies yielded 49 studies focusing on testing the effects of police presence or evaluating its measurement. We find evidence that police presence has mostly crime reduction effects on crimes related to motor theft, property, violence and guns. Police presence also reduces calls for service and improves traffic behaviour. Police presence focused on specific areas, times and types of crime achieves maximum effectiveness. The reviewed studies show a high degree of heterogeneity in reporting which limits comparability of findings across studies. Research on police presence presents evidence for significant crime preventative effects of focused police actions and shows strongest effects when focused on certain areas, times, or types of crimes Look at the 49 studies they went through. Most of them show that adding officers lowers crime. Now you have seen the data.

What's the relationship between crime rates and number of officers?

by eli 4y ago

What's the relationship between crime rates and number of officers?

It is generally expected, and in fact almost always the case, that if you hire people to deal with a specific problem, hiring more of them will result in less of this problem, and conversely, hiring fewer will result in having more of that problem. At some point, of course, one would expect to see diminishing returns. However, it is beyond clear by looking at other similar countries, our past, recent evidence in police budget reductions etc., that we are nowhere near close to that.

anigbrowl 4y ago
Actually it appears that the more police you have the more misdemeanor arrests result, but this does not impact the clearance rate for violent felonies. In other words you get more hall monitors but not necessarily more detectives. https://academic.oup.com/bjc/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/bjc/azac005/6568129?redirectedFrom=fulltext&login=false https://academic.oup.com/bjc/advance-article-abstract/doi/10... recent evidence in police budget reductions Only about 8% of US cities have reallocated police founding elsewhere; most have increased it since 2020, and in nearly half of jurisdictions it has risen by >10%. https://abcnews.go.com/US/defunding-claims-police-funding-increased-us-cities/story?id=91511971 https://abcnews.go.com/US/defunding-claims-police-funding-in... The US also spends more than most other developed countries as a % of GDP, though less than Russia and Costa Rica: https://www.workandmoney.com/s/police-spending-by-country-984701cbc1c340e9 https://www.workandmoney.com/s/police-spending-by-country-98...
- xyzzyz 4y ago
  > Actually it appears that the more police you have the more misdemeanor arrests result, but this does not impact the clearance rate for violent felonies. I don't have access to this study, so I cannot really comment on it, but this is just one study. When you take the evidence as a whole, the picture is quite different. See for example this systematic review, which looked at 49 separate studies and it did find that, yes, "police presence has mostly crime reduction effects on crimes related to motor theft, property, violence and guns. Police presence also reduces calls for service and improves traffic behaviour". Additionally, these misdemeanor arrests have been very useful in reducing violent crime rate in NYC. NYC cops under Giuliani and Bloomberg would harass people for trivial shit, find guns on them that they weren't allowed to possess, and then throw the book at them for it. This resulted in carrying a gun being too risky activity for NYC criminals, which resulted in great reduction in shootings, homicide, and other crime involving use of guns like robbery and carjacking. Now, of course, one might object to this strategy, based on morality or legality of it, but what you cannot object to is whether it worked, because it clearly did. This is my point: police activity reduces crime. > Only about 8% of US cities have reallocated police founding elsewhere; most have increased it since 2020, and in nearly half of jurisdictions it has risen by >10%. Given that inflation since 2020 has been over 10%, that means that more than half of jurisdiction did cut police funding in real terms. > The US also spends more than most other developed countries as a % of GDP, though less than Russia and Costa Rica: https://www.workandmoney.com/s/police-spending-by-country-98 https://www.workandmoney.com/s/police-spending-by-country-98... And Russia and Costa Rica indeed have crime rates similar to ours. Rather more importantly than spend, though, is how much we actually get for it. Seems like policing is another one of those fields, like medicine and education, where we spend more than other countries as a percentage of GDP, but get less value for the spend. This is why I'm talking about actual metrics like police officers per capita, not dollars spent on policing.

smt88 4y ago

Adding officers doesn't lower crime. I've never seen data showing that it does. https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/relationship-between-police-presence-and-crime-deterrence https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/relation...

xyzzyz 4y ago
Have you ever looked for it? Here is a systematic review of available evidence: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10610-021-09500-8 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10610-021-09500-8 > The systematic search strategies yielded 49 studies focusing on testing the effects of police presence or evaluating its measurement. We find evidence that police presence has mostly crime reduction effects on crimes related to motor theft, property, violence and guns. Police presence also reduces calls for service and improves traffic behaviour. Police presence focused on specific areas, times and types of crime achieves maximum effectiveness. The reviewed studies show a high degree of heterogeneity in reporting which limits comparability of findings across studies. Research on police presence presents evidence for significant crime preventative effects of focused police actions and shows strongest effects when focused on certain areas, times, or types of crimes Look at the 49 studies they went through. Most of them show that adding officers lowers crime. Now you have seen the data.