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I don't really understand this hypothesis as it assumes that information quality of AI generated content on the internet will drop as a result of ChatGPT, not i

by kypro 4y ago

I don't really understand this hypothesis as it assumes that information quality of AI generated content on the internet will drop as a result of ChatGPT, not increase. The way I see it is that ChatGPT isn't the only tool out there that can create spam and junk content. The only difference is that ChatGPT produces something that's of a high enough quality that it's not as easy for a human to easily classify it as spam. And something you can't easily classify as spam arguably isn't spam. If you assume that those incentivised to create spam today are creating spam anyway and all ChatGPT will do is allow spammers to create better spam then I don't see why the quality of content online would necessarily drop because of ChatGPT - you might actually find that what was once just spam is actually kinda interesting all of a sudden. But it's not just the quality of AI spam that will increase with ChatGPT... Consider BuzzFeed... Arguably they're just paying people to write trash content today. And this is very common. Most companies have a blog where they pay someone to write mostly junk content just for SEO. I think ChatGPT might actually produce higher quality content that what is currently being written at places like Buzzfeed and on junk blogs. Or at least these workers now have a tool to write something that's higher quality. I think the only way you're correct is if ChatGPT were to greatly increase the incentive to publish spam, resulting in a much greater amount of spam that counteracts the positive improvement in spam quality. And although I think it probably will increase the number people producing spam content to some extent I doubt it will have a net-negative impact. Finally, I think what you'll see happen in future iterations of ChatGPT to improve quality and accuracy is that content will be fed in weighted by how authoritative the source is. This spam singularity that some are predicting, where the prior generation of spam bots produce the content that trains future generations of spam bots makes no sense given these companies are trying to create AI that doesn't just spit out spam and inaccurate information.

jerf 4y ago
"I don't really understand this hypothesis as it assumes that information quality of AI generated content on the internet will drop as a result of ChatGPT, not increase." It has to drop. ChatGPT can not source new truths except by rare accident. I bet a lot of you are choking on that. So, I'd say this: Can you just "source" new truths? If you just sit and type plausible things, will some of them be right? Yes, but not very many. Truth is exponentially exclusive. That's not a metaphor; it's information theory. It's why we measure statements in bits, an exponential measure, and not some linear measure. ChatGPT's ability to spin truth is not exponentially good. A confabulation engine becoming a major contributor to the "facts" on the internet can not help but drop the average quality of facts on the internet on its own terms. When it starts consuming its own facts, it will iteratively "fuzz" the "facts" it puts out even more. ChatGPT is no more immune to "garbage in garbage out" than any other process. "Finally, I think what you'll see happen in future iterations of ChatGPT to improve quality and accuracy is that content will be fed in weighted by how authoritative the source is" Even if authority is perfect, that just slows the process. And personally I see no particularly strong correlation between "authority" and "truth". If you do, expand your vision; there are other "authorities" in the world than the ones you are thinking of.
- kypro 4y ago
  > It has to drop. ChatGPT can not source new truths except by rare accident. How are we defining a "truth" here? For example, if I want to find specific SQL query, which will work for my specific database schema and my specific version of MySQL I won't find that online. Traditionally I'd need to come up with the new query for this novel scenario, or I'd need to ask someone to do it for me (perhaps on Stackoverflow). Now ChatGPT can come up with these new novel queries instead. You're right that it can't do it's own research and come up with fundamentally new information, but it can come up with answers to questions never before asked based on what it can infer from existing knowledge. I'd argue most of the useful stuff people do isn't coming up with things that are fundamentally new, but applying things that are known in new and interesting ways. If you're a developer this is what you probably do every day of the week. And ChatGPT can absolutely do this. Secondly, I'd also argue regurgitation of known facts is not necessarily without value either. A good example of this is your typical non-fiction / text book. If you write a text book about mathematics, you don't necessary have to include new information for it to be useful. Sometimes the value comes from the explanations, the presentation or a focus on lesser covered topics. Again, ChatGPT can absolutely do this. It already explains a lot of things to me better than humans can, so in that sense it is an increase in quality over what I'd already able to find online. As for your point on authority I do agree with you somewhat there. I suppose the point I was trying to make is that this isn't a blind process. There are content sources which you can under weight, or simply non include, if it has a negative impact on the quality of the results. You can also improve algorithms to help the AI make better use of the information it's trained on. For example, if I asked you to read Buzzfeed for a week you wouldn't necessarily get any stupider because you're able to understand what's useful information and what's not. I think all you really need to ask here is whether the next iteration of ChatGPT is likely to provide better results than the prior iteration, and will the iteration after that produce better results again? If your answer is yes, then it suggests the trend in quality would be higher, not lower, as a function of time. Finally, wherever AI is applied the trend is always: sub human ability -> rivals that of the average human -> rivals that of the average elite human -> super human ability. Is language fundamentally different? Maybe? I think you can argue that generative AI is very different to the AI used for something like Chess, but it would at least be an expectation if future iterations of this AI got progressively worse. Maybe this the best ChatGPT will ever be at writing code. I guess I just think that is unlikely. ---- Btw, this is just how I see things likely playing out. Given how new the technology is my certainty isn't very high. I initially agreed with your point of view, but the more I thought about my reasoning the more my position shifted.
thfuran 4y ago
>And something you can't easily classify as spam arguably isn't spam Something that's not obviously junk but is entirely wrong is even worse than something that is obviously junk. It'll waste more time and probably convince more people of falsehoods.
BlueTemplar 4y ago
> And something you can't easily classify as spam arguably isn't spam. [...] > I think the only way you're correct is if ChatGPT were to greatly increase the incentive to publish spam. Arguably it still is spam, and consider the incentive to hide advertising (or generally to push any agenda), when using a program is orders of magnitude cheaper than paying people to do it, but now is hard enough to recognize, I cannot say any more whether your average hn comment has been written by ChatGPT or not as long as I am not specifically looking out for it.

by kypro 4y ago

jerf 4y ago

"I don't really understand this hypothesis as it assumes that information quality of AI generated content on the internet will drop as a result of ChatGPT, not increase." It has to drop. ChatGPT can not source new truths except by rare accident. I bet a lot of you are choking on that. So, I'd say this: Can you just "source" new truths? If you just sit and type plausible things, will some of them be right? Yes, but not very many. Truth is exponentially exclusive. That's not a metaphor; it's information theory. It's why we measure statements in bits, an exponential measure, and not some linear measure. ChatGPT's ability to spin truth is not exponentially good. A confabulation engine becoming a major contributor to the "facts" on the internet can not help but drop the average quality of facts on the internet on its own terms. When it starts consuming its own facts, it will iteratively "fuzz" the "facts" it puts out even more. ChatGPT is no more immune to "garbage in garbage out" than any other process. "Finally, I think what you'll see happen in future iterations of ChatGPT to improve quality and accuracy is that content will be fed in weighted by how authoritative the source is" Even if authority is perfect, that just slows the process. And personally I see no particularly strong correlation between "authority" and "truth". If you do, expand your vision; there are other "authorities" in the world than the ones you are thinking of.

kypro 4y ago
> It has to drop. ChatGPT can not source new truths except by rare accident. How are we defining a "truth" here? For example, if I want to find specific SQL query, which will work for my specific database schema and my specific version of MySQL I won't find that online. Traditionally I'd need to come up with the new query for this novel scenario, or I'd need to ask someone to do it for me (perhaps on Stackoverflow). Now ChatGPT can come up with these new novel queries instead. You're right that it can't do it's own research and come up with fundamentally new information, but it can come up with answers to questions never before asked based on what it can infer from existing knowledge. I'd argue most of the useful stuff people do isn't coming up with things that are fundamentally new, but applying things that are known in new and interesting ways. If you're a developer this is what you probably do every day of the week. And ChatGPT can absolutely do this. Secondly, I'd also argue regurgitation of known facts is not necessarily without value either. A good example of this is your typical non-fiction / text book. If you write a text book about mathematics, you don't necessary have to include new information for it to be useful. Sometimes the value comes from the explanations, the presentation or a focus on lesser covered topics. Again, ChatGPT can absolutely do this. It already explains a lot of things to me better than humans can, so in that sense it is an increase in quality over what I'd already able to find online. As for your point on authority I do agree with you somewhat there. I suppose the point I was trying to make is that this isn't a blind process. There are content sources which you can under weight, or simply non include, if it has a negative impact on the quality of the results. You can also improve algorithms to help the AI make better use of the information it's trained on. For example, if I asked you to read Buzzfeed for a week you wouldn't necessarily get any stupider because you're able to understand what's useful information and what's not. I think all you really need to ask here is whether the next iteration of ChatGPT is likely to provide better results than the prior iteration, and will the iteration after that produce better results again? If your answer is yes, then it suggests the trend in quality would be higher, not lower, as a function of time. Finally, wherever AI is applied the trend is always: sub human ability -> rivals that of the average human -> rivals that of the average elite human -> super human ability. Is language fundamentally different? Maybe? I think you can argue that generative AI is very different to the AI used for something like Chess, but it would at least be an expectation if future iterations of this AI got progressively worse. Maybe this the best ChatGPT will ever be at writing code. I guess I just think that is unlikely. ---- Btw, this is just how I see things likely playing out. Given how new the technology is my certainty isn't very high. I initially agreed with your point of view, but the more I thought about my reasoning the more my position shifted.

thfuran 4y ago

>And something you can't easily classify as spam arguably isn't spam Something that's not obviously junk but is entirely wrong is even worse than something that is obviously junk. It'll waste more time and probably convince more people of falsehoods.

BlueTemplar 4y ago

> And something you can't easily classify as spam arguably isn't spam. [...] > I think the only way you're correct is if ChatGPT were to greatly increase the incentive to publish spam. Arguably it still is spam, and consider the incentive to hide advertising (or generally to push any agenda), when using a program is orders of magnitude cheaper than paying people to do it, but now is hard enough to recognize, I cannot say any more whether your average hn comment has been written by ChatGPT or not as long as I am not specifically looking out for it.