5 ms·

1 and 2 can't work together unless the private market is somehow cancelled and the government retains ownership of the buildings If downtown becomes some safe

by shmatt 4y ago

1 and 2 can't work together unless the private market is somehow cancelled and the government retains ownership of the buildings If downtown becomes some safe green utopia, rents triple downtown SF has a limited amount of square footage available to buy or rent. If it becomes an amazing place 1,000,000 workers will want those 160,000 spaces

gibsonf1 4y ago
Not sure I understand your point. 2 will happen because of the market anyway. My point is mainly that without 1, people won't return, so then both the current owners and new owners of the buildings will go bankrupt and SF will become another Detroit.
- maerF0x0 4y ago
  America has experienced flight to the suburbs and urban price crashes in the past (iirc previously due to crime too) . Eventually the price gets low enough that people come back. Then we get mad about "gentrification" and create policies that invite crime back. Rinse and Repeat.
  - ignormies 4y ago
    > iirc previously due to crime too "White flight" was definitely about more than just crime
    - maerF0x0 4y ago
      IDK, I googled about it and found this. Sounds to me far too reductionistic given "white flight" coincides with rising crime. And the opposite ("gentrification") coincides with lowering crime. > Boustan, who made the Great Migration and white flight the subject of her 2016 book Competition in the Promised Land: Black Migrants in Northern Cities and Labor Markets, cautions that few whites who moved from cities to suburbs in the decades after World War II “left personal accounts, and they may not have been able to articulate exactly why they moved.” She concludes that “only a portion of white flight can be traced back to the now-classic dynamic of racial turnover.” Other motivators included a wish to reside in less densely populated communities and concerns about tax burdens and public services. Ascribing white flight solely to racism is “reductive,” says Charles Marohn, founder of the nonprofit Strong Towns. As Marohn writes, “for an individual or a family whose home is losing value, when another home on the outskirts of town—one that just happens to be newer, more spacious, and served by better schools—is gaining value, it’s very logical to make that move given the opportunity.” TLDR; > The contention that white racism caused white flight, which then caused disinvestment, is suspiciously tidy. https://www.city-journal.org/truth-about-white-flight-from-cities https://www.city-journal.org/truth-about-white-flight-from-c...
- shmatt 4y ago
  rents never get lower when things get better. rents get lower when things get bad. thats my point if and when things get better, they will pretty much go back to higher than pre pandemic overnight, with Manhattan as a very good example (also very limited square footage, every came running back, rents are completely out of control)
  - gibsonf1 4y ago
    When you have to pay a mortgage on a very expensive building every month, and its empty, that's a very BAD thing. To avoid bankruptcy, the only option is to lower rent to get any kind of income. If even then the income isn't enough, bankruptcy. New owner buys for much less, then rents out the space at lower rates, etc. This is an epic crisis for the property owners of these buildings. But the big issue is that without SF being safe again, lower rents won't get people to come back - I sure won't risk my life for cheap rent downtown when its so easy to work elsewhere.
    - quesera 4y ago
      > New owner buys for much less, then rents out the space at lower rates, etc There is little correlation between carrying cost (mortgage, insurance, etc) of a building, and rent charged. > I sure won't risk my life for cheap rent downtown SF does not have a violent crime problem[0]. SF has a property crime problem. 0: All crime is a problem. SF's violent crime stats aren't significantly worse than the rest of the state/country.
voisin 4y ago
> If downtown becomes some safe green utopia, rents triple Nothing is static. It is called gentrification. Rents have to get cheap to get some people to move back despite the crime and the government needs to get the crime problem under control. Then things slowly improve and rents slowly increase again reflecting the lower crime risk.
- shmatt 4y ago
  >Slowly increase As someone who just got their second 50% rent increase in NYC (33% higher than pre-pandemic). When people wan't back, they wan't back, and the landlords do not hesitate
  - voisin 4y ago
    That’s a fair point. Are your rents allowed to go up that much year to year or are you moving and rents are increasing this quickly? In Canada, renter protection laws mean rents for a tenant that stays year to year can only go up by a maximum amount set by the government, usually around inflation (though significantly less than inflation in 2022). The only way to get huge rent increases is if tenants leave the next tenant will pay whatever is agreed to with the landlord which is not capped. Many landlords try to push long term, low paying tenants out in order to turn over the unit to a new tenant at market rates, but the same renter protection laws make that challenging.
    - gorbypark 4y ago
      Not always true, afaik in Ontario, if the building was built after 2018 none of that "maximum rent increase" stuff applies. Landlords can raise the rent to whatever they want.
    - kjkjadksj 4y ago
      A lot of cities have some rent control like this covering older buildings in the us but its shockingly politically unpalatable. People think it is better for others to be gouged on housing I guess.
locopati 4y ago
now you can have a whole office just to park bikes in
legolas2412 4y ago
Wow. Do you imply SF should embrace crime because that's the only way to keep things affordable?
- convolvatron 4y ago
  It does seem like making the city undesirable for the wealthy would be only way to get prices to drop (stopped being affordable a while ago)
  - ericmay 4y ago
    Who are the wealthy in this case? Because if they are wealthy they probably just Uber from their gated/secure location to wherever they are going and avoid the problem if it gets bad enough walking on the streets. San Francisco has to build but ultimately there is just too much demand. It’ll never again be “cheap” just like Manhattan will never be cheap.

by shmatt 4y ago

gibsonf1 4y ago

Not sure I understand your point. 2 will happen because of the market anyway. My point is mainly that without 1, people won't return, so then both the current owners and new owners of the buildings will go bankrupt and SF will become another Detroit.

maerF0x0 4y ago
America has experienced flight to the suburbs and urban price crashes in the past (iirc previously due to crime too) . Eventually the price gets low enough that people come back. Then we get mad about "gentrification" and create policies that invite crime back. Rinse and Repeat.
- ignormies 4y ago
  > iirc previously due to crime too "White flight" was definitely about more than just crime
  - maerF0x0 4y ago
    IDK, I googled about it and found this. Sounds to me far too reductionistic given "white flight" coincides with rising crime. And the opposite ("gentrification") coincides with lowering crime. > Boustan, who made the Great Migration and white flight the subject of her 2016 book Competition in the Promised Land: Black Migrants in Northern Cities and Labor Markets, cautions that few whites who moved from cities to suburbs in the decades after World War II “left personal accounts, and they may not have been able to articulate exactly why they moved.” She concludes that “only a portion of white flight can be traced back to the now-classic dynamic of racial turnover.” Other motivators included a wish to reside in less densely populated communities and concerns about tax burdens and public services. Ascribing white flight solely to racism is “reductive,” says Charles Marohn, founder of the nonprofit Strong Towns. As Marohn writes, “for an individual or a family whose home is losing value, when another home on the outskirts of town—one that just happens to be newer, more spacious, and served by better schools—is gaining value, it’s very logical to make that move given the opportunity.” TLDR; > The contention that white racism caused white flight, which then caused disinvestment, is suspiciously tidy. https://www.city-journal.org/truth-about-white-flight-from-cities https://www.city-journal.org/truth-about-white-flight-from-c...
shmatt 4y ago
rents never get lower when things get better. rents get lower when things get bad. thats my point if and when things get better, they will pretty much go back to higher than pre pandemic overnight, with Manhattan as a very good example (also very limited square footage, every came running back, rents are completely out of control)
- gibsonf1 4y ago
  When you have to pay a mortgage on a very expensive building every month, and its empty, that's a very BAD thing. To avoid bankruptcy, the only option is to lower rent to get any kind of income. If even then the income isn't enough, bankruptcy. New owner buys for much less, then rents out the space at lower rates, etc. This is an epic crisis for the property owners of these buildings. But the big issue is that without SF being safe again, lower rents won't get people to come back - I sure won't risk my life for cheap rent downtown when its so easy to work elsewhere.
  - quesera 4y ago
    > New owner buys for much less, then rents out the space at lower rates, etc There is little correlation between carrying cost (mortgage, insurance, etc) of a building, and rent charged. > I sure won't risk my life for cheap rent downtown SF does not have a violent crime problem[0]. SF has a property crime problem. 0: All crime is a problem. SF's violent crime stats aren't significantly worse than the rest of the state/country.

voisin 4y ago

> If downtown becomes some safe green utopia, rents triple Nothing is static. It is called gentrification. Rents have to get cheap to get some people to move back despite the crime and the government needs to get the crime problem under control. Then things slowly improve and rents slowly increase again reflecting the lower crime risk.

shmatt 4y ago
>Slowly increase As someone who just got their second 50% rent increase in NYC (33% higher than pre-pandemic). When people wan't back, they wan't back, and the landlords do not hesitate
- voisin 4y ago
  That’s a fair point. Are your rents allowed to go up that much year to year or are you moving and rents are increasing this quickly? In Canada, renter protection laws mean rents for a tenant that stays year to year can only go up by a maximum amount set by the government, usually around inflation (though significantly less than inflation in 2022). The only way to get huge rent increases is if tenants leave the next tenant will pay whatever is agreed to with the landlord which is not capped. Many landlords try to push long term, low paying tenants out in order to turn over the unit to a new tenant at market rates, but the same renter protection laws make that challenging.
  - gorbypark 4y ago
    Not always true, afaik in Ontario, if the building was built after 2018 none of that "maximum rent increase" stuff applies. Landlords can raise the rent to whatever they want.
  - kjkjadksj 4y ago
    A lot of cities have some rent control like this covering older buildings in the us but its shockingly politically unpalatable. People think it is better for others to be gouged on housing I guess.

locopati 4y ago

now you can have a whole office just to park bikes in

legolas2412 4y ago

Wow. Do you imply SF should embrace crime because that's the only way to keep things affordable?

convolvatron 4y ago
It does seem like making the city undesirable for the wealthy would be only way to get prices to drop (stopped being affordable a while ago)
- ericmay 4y ago
  Who are the wealthy in this case? Because if they are wealthy they probably just Uber from their gated/secure location to wherever they are going and avoid the problem if it gets bad enough walking on the streets. San Francisco has to build but ultimately there is just too much demand. It’ll never again be “cheap” just like Manhattan will never be cheap.