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We'll see if there's enough availability of economical EVs by then. Plus the charging infrastructure. Is there currently an EV that would be economical to oper

We'll see if there's enough availability of economical EVs by then. Plus the charging infrastructure. Is there currently an EV that would be economical to operate as an Uber/Lyft/taxi? The Prius, very popular with drivers, seems to sell for MSRP $28k, and pretty much all the Ubers I get are 100k miles or more. I don't think there's a modern EV that sells for much below $40k? And certainly there is no used market with lots of reliable 100k mile vehicles yet. For comparison, the last Uber driver I talked to had bought his Prius for $5k or so at 155k miles, and had since put 80k miles on it. The bulk of the ride sharing fleet seems to hover around this level. If EVs ever get that cheap (and I'm not sure they will), I doubt it'll be in 7 years.

toomuchtodo 4y ago
Lots of Model 3s and Ys in taxi service already, and the fuel and maintenance savings offset the higher vehicle cost rapidly. Regulation simply encourages the transition along to internalize the pollution externalities. NYC has a payment floor for rideshare drivers, so the revenue should be there to cover the equipment cost. The difficulty level is based on what rideshare companies can get away with paying drivers; if you mandate EVs, you need to also mandate a minimum payment to drivers to cover these costs. Rideshare services can then decide how to balance those costs between charging customers more and their profits. https://insideevs.com/news/580066/tesla-model-y-joins-gravity-fleet-all-electric-nyc-yellow-cabs/ https://insideevs.com/news/580066/tesla-model-y-joins-gravit... https://electrek.co/2021/07/26/revel-fleet-50-tesla-model-y-taxis-new-york-approved/ https://electrek.co/2021/07/26/revel-fleet-50-tesla-model-y-...
- asdff 4y ago
  They should regulate based on the vehicles mass versus its fuel type if they want to make a dent on local air pollution. Tire dust alone contributes 2000x the particulate emissions as the tailpipe. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/03/car-tyres-produce-more-particle-pollution-than-exhausts-tests-show https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/03/car-tyre...
  - toomuchtodo 4y ago
    Tire dust isn’t contributing to climate change, and air pollution from fossil fuel combustion is a known contributor to reduced life expectancy. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/06/14/air-pollution-takes-2-years-off-your-life-more-than-smoking-or-alcohol.html https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/06/14/air-pollution-takes-2-ye... > Air pollution, which is primarily the result of burning fossil fuels, takes 2.2 years of the global life expectancy for each person, according to a new report out Tuesday from the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC). > For comparison, that's a smidge more the decline in average life expectancy caused by smoking, more than three times that of alcohol use and unsafe water, six times that of HIV/AIDS, and 89 times that of conflict and terrorism. Light vehicles aren’t going away (although more mass transit and cycling infra is always welcome), so requiring them be EVs is an improvement. We can then continue on to solve for tire pollution.
    - asdff 4y ago
      I'm not denying that burning fossil fuels contributes to climate change. I'm arguing that in terms of peoples personal vehicles, the vast majority of particulate polution (3 orders of magnitude more) comes from the tire dust rather than the tailpipe. Tire dust is basically microplastics. It gets into your lungs and sticks around, and is also associated with reduced life expectancy and poor health. It's a significant source of PM2.5, which is estimated to be responsible for 95% of the global public health impact from air pollution. It also of course damages ecosystems when it runs off into our watersheds. https://jalopnik.com/tire-dust-is-the-ddt-of-our-generation-1850024765 https://jalopnik.com/tire-dust-is-the-ddt-of-our-generation-... That's true that taking a vehicle and replacing it with an EV makes a lot of sense and would reduce pollution, but to me that depends on them being equal weights. Usually EVs are substantially heavier than equivalent ICE cars, so this would mean we trade one form of emissions (less tailpipe emissions) for another (more tire dust). I'm not sure if that would pencil out to be overall better, considering the tailpipe emissions from a modern (last 25 years we will call it) are responsible for so little of the particulate pollution to begin with, and adding on another 1000lbs to a given car frame represents a massive proportional increase in weight. I wonder if larger cars mean wider or larger tires, and what that might do for particulate generation as well? Maybe one solution is to have "urban cars" running off of powered catenaries and very small batteries, rather than larger and heavier battery packs, almost like a trollybus.
- amalgamated_inc 4y ago
  I do see a lot of Model 3s, that's true. One time I got 3 3s in a single day :) Drivers seem to generally like it, although 2 of the 3 had put up sun shades from the insides because the glass roof was heating the car up too much. The Model 3 as shown on the website starts around $45k even after the recent price drops. That's a lot of money over a Prius to get back in fuel, and given how efficient light hybrids already are (the Model 3 weighs 600lbs more than the Prius, probably largely due to its batteries) I'm not sure there's much more in terms of fuel efficiency you can get. Especially because the market clearing price for ride share cars doesn't seem to be new Priuses (Priae?), but those that only cost $5-10k used. I have my doubts that EVs will ever get that cheap, old Teslas certainly don't seem to be currently.
  - brianwawok 4y ago
    The glass roof blocks heat fine. Most of the people who complain are first time car owners, who also why why new tires aren’t coveted by warranty.
    - amalgamated_inc 4y ago
      These were Uber drivers who drive their cars all day.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - floxy 4y ago
    > Priuses (Priae?) Prii. According to one source anyway: https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-announces-the-plural-of-prius/ https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-announces-the-plural-of-...
Laaas 4y ago
Theoretically you could buy a very old EV and give it a new battery.
- amalgamated_inc 4y ago
  Given that batteries make up a large fraction of new EV prices, I'm not sure that helps the economics.
  - asdff 4y ago
    Yeah, that would be like buying a $5000 car and getting a new crate engine for $12000 from the manufacturer, then paying another $5000 to do the swap.
melling 4y ago
Of course there will be by 2030. People still don’t understand technology curves? https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/8547/teslas-vehicle-deliveries-since-2012/ https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/8547/teslas-vehicle-deliv...
- asdff 4y ago
  A 2012 tesla is still like $20000 https://www.ebay.com/sch/6001/i.html?_from=R40&_nkw=2012+tesla https://www.ebay.com/sch/6001/i.html?_from=R40&_nkw=2012+tes...
- amalgamated_inc 4y ago
  No such thing as unlimited exponential growth in the real world.
  - melling 4y ago
    No one said we need unlimited exponential growth.
    - amalgamated_inc 4y ago
      Then explain what you mean by "technology curve" that people "don't get"
floxy 4y ago
I don't know if they would be appropriate for a taxi, but Chevy Bolt, starts at $26,500: https://www.chevrolet.com/electric/bolt-ev https://www.chevrolet.com/electric/bolt-ev Nissan Leaf, starts at $28,040: https://www.nissanusa.com/vehicles/electric-cars/leaf.html https://www.nissanusa.com/vehicles/electric-cars/leaf.html ...that's before any tax credits.
- amalgamated_inc 4y ago
  Those are 2 of the oldest EVs, that's why I said "modern." These don't have great range and charge very slowly. I think they've both been updated a bit, so I hope they at least support modern DC fast charging now. Looks like the LEAF still uses CHAdeMO, which is being phased out AFAIK. But its battery is so small that it still seems to give somewhat adequate charge times (45min to 80%). The Bolt seems similar: slow charging system but tiny battery, which might be OK in city ride sharing use. And not sure anyone cares much for the size of an Uber, so might be fine? It's not like those old Priuses are amazingly comfortable or roomy or anything.
  - reducesuffering 4y ago
    The Chevy Bolt is 259 mile range while Model 3 (SR, the economical one) is 272... > city ride sharing use is also 95% of ride sharing rides.
    - amalgamated_inc 4y ago
      Certainly come a long way. When I first drove one, we struggled to make 100mi. These could be enough for most ride sharing services, yea. We'll see, I haven't seen one used as an Uber. No Leafs, either.
- amalgamated_inc 4y ago
  Chevy Malibu starts at $25k, that's 2 or 3 classes bigger and nicer of a vehicle.

toomuchtodo 4y ago

Lots of Model 3s and Ys in taxi service already, and the fuel and maintenance savings offset the higher vehicle cost rapidly. Regulation simply encourages the transition along to internalize the pollution externalities. NYC has a payment floor for rideshare drivers, so the revenue should be there to cover the equipment cost. The difficulty level is based on what rideshare companies can get away with paying drivers; if you mandate EVs, you need to also mandate a minimum payment to drivers to cover these costs. Rideshare services can then decide how to balance those costs between charging customers more and their profits. https://insideevs.com/news/580066/tesla-model-y-joins-gravity-fleet-all-electric-nyc-yellow-cabs/ https://insideevs.com/news/580066/tesla-model-y-joins-gravit... https://electrek.co/2021/07/26/revel-fleet-50-tesla-model-y-taxis-new-york-approved/ https://electrek.co/2021/07/26/revel-fleet-50-tesla-model-y-...

asdff 4y ago
They should regulate based on the vehicles mass versus its fuel type if they want to make a dent on local air pollution. Tire dust alone contributes 2000x the particulate emissions as the tailpipe. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/03/car-tyres-produce-more-particle-pollution-than-exhausts-tests-show https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/03/car-tyre...
- toomuchtodo 4y ago
  Tire dust isn’t contributing to climate change, and air pollution from fossil fuel combustion is a known contributor to reduced life expectancy. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/06/14/air-pollution-takes-2-years-off-your-life-more-than-smoking-or-alcohol.html https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/06/14/air-pollution-takes-2-ye... > Air pollution, which is primarily the result of burning fossil fuels, takes 2.2 years of the global life expectancy for each person, according to a new report out Tuesday from the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC). > For comparison, that's a smidge more the decline in average life expectancy caused by smoking, more than three times that of alcohol use and unsafe water, six times that of HIV/AIDS, and 89 times that of conflict and terrorism. Light vehicles aren’t going away (although more mass transit and cycling infra is always welcome), so requiring them be EVs is an improvement. We can then continue on to solve for tire pollution.
  - asdff 4y ago
    I'm not denying that burning fossil fuels contributes to climate change. I'm arguing that in terms of peoples personal vehicles, the vast majority of particulate polution (3 orders of magnitude more) comes from the tire dust rather than the tailpipe. Tire dust is basically microplastics. It gets into your lungs and sticks around, and is also associated with reduced life expectancy and poor health. It's a significant source of PM2.5, which is estimated to be responsible for 95% of the global public health impact from air pollution. It also of course damages ecosystems when it runs off into our watersheds. https://jalopnik.com/tire-dust-is-the-ddt-of-our-generation-1850024765 https://jalopnik.com/tire-dust-is-the-ddt-of-our-generation-... That's true that taking a vehicle and replacing it with an EV makes a lot of sense and would reduce pollution, but to me that depends on them being equal weights. Usually EVs are substantially heavier than equivalent ICE cars, so this would mean we trade one form of emissions (less tailpipe emissions) for another (more tire dust). I'm not sure if that would pencil out to be overall better, considering the tailpipe emissions from a modern (last 25 years we will call it) are responsible for so little of the particulate pollution to begin with, and adding on another 1000lbs to a given car frame represents a massive proportional increase in weight. I wonder if larger cars mean wider or larger tires, and what that might do for particulate generation as well? Maybe one solution is to have "urban cars" running off of powered catenaries and very small batteries, rather than larger and heavier battery packs, almost like a trollybus.
amalgamated_inc 4y ago
I do see a lot of Model 3s, that's true. One time I got 3 3s in a single day :) Drivers seem to generally like it, although 2 of the 3 had put up sun shades from the insides because the glass roof was heating the car up too much. The Model 3 as shown on the website starts around $45k even after the recent price drops. That's a lot of money over a Prius to get back in fuel, and given how efficient light hybrids already are (the Model 3 weighs 600lbs more than the Prius, probably largely due to its batteries) I'm not sure there's much more in terms of fuel efficiency you can get. Especially because the market clearing price for ride share cars doesn't seem to be new Priuses (Priae?), but those that only cost $5-10k used. I have my doubts that EVs will ever get that cheap, old Teslas certainly don't seem to be currently.
- brianwawok 4y ago
  The glass roof blocks heat fine. Most of the people who complain are first time car owners, who also why why new tires aren’t coveted by warranty.
  - amalgamated_inc 4y ago
    These were Uber drivers who drive their cars all day.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- floxy 4y ago
  > Priuses (Priae?) Prii. According to one source anyway: https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-announces-the-plural-of-prius/ https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-announces-the-plural-of-...

Laaas 4y ago

Theoretically you could buy a very old EV and give it a new battery.

amalgamated_inc 4y ago
Given that batteries make up a large fraction of new EV prices, I'm not sure that helps the economics.
- asdff 4y ago
  Yeah, that would be like buying a $5000 car and getting a new crate engine for $12000 from the manufacturer, then paying another $5000 to do the swap.

melling 4y ago

Of course there will be by 2030. People still don’t understand technology curves? https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/8547/teslas-vehicle-deliveries-since-2012/ https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/8547/teslas-vehicle-deliv...

asdff 4y ago
A 2012 tesla is still like $20000 https://www.ebay.com/sch/6001/i.html?_from=R40&_nkw=2012+tesla https://www.ebay.com/sch/6001/i.html?_from=R40&_nkw=2012+tes...
amalgamated_inc 4y ago
No such thing as unlimited exponential growth in the real world.
- melling 4y ago
  No one said we need unlimited exponential growth.
  - amalgamated_inc 4y ago
    Then explain what you mean by "technology curve" that people "don't get"

floxy 4y ago

I don't know if they would be appropriate for a taxi, but Chevy Bolt, starts at $26,500: https://www.chevrolet.com/electric/bolt-ev https://www.chevrolet.com/electric/bolt-ev Nissan Leaf, starts at $28,040: https://www.nissanusa.com/vehicles/electric-cars/leaf.html https://www.nissanusa.com/vehicles/electric-cars/leaf.html ...that's before any tax credits.

amalgamated_inc 4y ago
Those are 2 of the oldest EVs, that's why I said "modern." These don't have great range and charge very slowly. I think they've both been updated a bit, so I hope they at least support modern DC fast charging now. Looks like the LEAF still uses CHAdeMO, which is being phased out AFAIK. But its battery is so small that it still seems to give somewhat adequate charge times (45min to 80%). The Bolt seems similar: slow charging system but tiny battery, which might be OK in city ride sharing use. And not sure anyone cares much for the size of an Uber, so might be fine? It's not like those old Priuses are amazingly comfortable or roomy or anything.
- reducesuffering 4y ago
  The Chevy Bolt is 259 mile range while Model 3 (SR, the economical one) is 272... > city ride sharing use is also 95% of ride sharing rides.
  - amalgamated_inc 4y ago
    Certainly come a long way. When I first drove one, we struggled to make 100mi. These could be enough for most ride sharing services, yea. We'll see, I haven't seen one used as an Uber. No Leafs, either.
amalgamated_inc 4y ago
Chevy Malibu starts at $25k, that's 2 or 3 classes bigger and nicer of a vehicle.