Very few of us economists will actually say “yes an impression is going to happen next year.” Nearly always we say things like: “we believe there is an elevat

Very few of us economists will actually say “yes an impression is going to happen next year.” Nearly always we say things like: “we believe there is an elevated probability of a recession over X period.” This isn’t to weasel out of taking responsibility. This is an extremely hard problem. (How many recessions have there been for which we have good data? Probably fewer than 20.)