A lot is a normalization of covid era excesses. Yeah, everything that went on during the "peak COVID era" has definitely flipped a lot of things around, and co

A lot is a normalization of covid era excesses. Yeah, everything that went on during the "peak COVID era" has definitely flipped a lot of things around, and confused the issue in many areas. I expect that's one reason it's so hard right now to be sure what's really happening. The other thing that strikes me about this is that the fed has been looking for a good chance to start raising rates for a LONG time now. Interest rates have been running really low by historical standards for a long time IIRC, to the point that there was talk about the possibility of negative interest rates possibly being needed in response to some future economic downturn. They wanted rates up a bit to have "dry powder" to expend in response to the next (actual) recession. The risk, obviously, is the possibility of triggering a recession through that very act of trying to get rates back up to a "normal" level.