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There is a housing crisis on hand, people are struggling to afford food due to inflation, and hundreds of thousands have lost their jobs. The "normal" person wh

There is a housing crisis on hand, people are struggling to afford food due to inflation, and hundreds of thousands have lost their jobs. The "normal" person who isn't a SV millionaire has been gouged on every angle since covid started with little to no protection from captured regulators. Oh, and we're in a proxy war with Russia. If you base your whole argument for recession off of Axios' year of year gdp change percentage you are hyperfixating a complex economic outlook and dumbing it down into a cherry picked metric that is showing up for any number of correlations such as return to work post lock downs. You can take a look at the quarter of quarter change https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP#0 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP#0 In my opinion it doesn't align with axios' narrative.

sempron64 4y ago
I would say that “normal” people are doing very well compared to last year as labor demand and wage rises at the low end are high, energy prices and food prices have come down, and housing is crashing in many areas. The upper middle class (i.e most software professionals on this site) and tech billionaires are having a shit year as tech stocks crash and weigh on the market. Don’t discount that you’re in an info bubble. The worst info bubbles are ones that affect the journalism industry and extremely online communities like the ones frequented by software engineers.
- revlolz 4y ago
  I think you had a little projection there calling me in a bubble. Why don't we focus on what is actually happening instead discrediting who I am with assumptions. Wages are stagnant, energy costs are going up. Hourly Wages change yoy https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Zeb7 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Zeb7 Energy Price Index https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Zebr https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Zebr >food prices have come down False, and before you blame the egg crisis on the reported avian flu, milk and bread demonstrate the same rise. Pick a product, it's gone up, PPI for all commodities shot up indicating macro changes to the economy (in this case reactions to inflation where producers raise rates) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ze8G https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ze8G eggs https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ze80 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ze80 milk https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ze8b https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ze8b bread https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ze8h https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ze8h >housing is crashing True, but not in ways that helps consumers. Landlords are doubling down and renting. Properties are sitting on market far longer than normal. Median sales price will decrease with interest rate changes, but with the root cause issue unresolved of lack of construction (supply), very large demand as the new generations age, and flippers and renter barons unchecked.. The housing market is not going to be affordable for low, middle, or even upper middle class citizens. I also think this kind of talk completely belittles how massive of a change occurred to housing prices in the last 5 years. Compare that to wage increases and viola, your normal every day person is in bad shape. median sales price https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ze67 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ze67 Do you want anecdote? People aren't doing well. Go talk to your neighbors. A single corrective change percent movement from GDP reported by Axios is manipulative and a narrative article in my opinion.
  - comte7092 4y ago
    >Wages are stagnant The graph you linked shows wages increasing every month, consistently, over the last two years. It is also not measuring YoY, it’s MoM.
    - revlolz 4y ago
      Fair enough, I did not concisely or accurately demonstrate that wages adjusted for cpi have returned to ~2019 levels which in my mind seems stagnant.
      - comte7092 4y ago
        That’s a fair assessment. Wages have not adjusted uniformly, while inflation tends to hit people fairly equally, so some have benefited significantly more than others, while other have suffered significantly more than the rest.
- rascul 4y ago
  Food prices may have come down a little in the last year but they're still almost 2x what they were 2-3 years ago here. If energy includes gasoline well that is going back up to almost triple the price from 2-3 years ago in my area. Sure wages may have gone up some (mine did) but I can barely afford this economy now where before I was doing alright.
dragonwriter 4y ago
The quarter over quarter change shows strong and consistent growth since the brief COVID recession, so how exactly do you think that counters the YOY narrative? Additionally, unemployment, which almost invariably rises starting before a recession is low and flat. Real (inflation-adjusted) wages have risen the last two quarters, after falling due to inflation. [0] [0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
- revlolz 4y ago
  Fair points. My opinion is best oversimplified would be due to our return to 2019 levels on wages with pricing on maslow items having skyrocketed. Rate changes and housing data keeps me uncomfortable.
- kjkjadksj 4y ago
  Otoh unemployment could be artificially low right now due to covid. You had a period of job loss and high unemployment, but along side that you had a period of lower than normal immigration. Meaning the total workers employed today, and in some hypothetical scenario where covid didnt happen and immigration kept pace, could very well be the same. Just with the former unemployment would be low and unemployment would be higher, but the same “pre recession jobs contraction” could be happening.

sempron64 4y ago

I would say that “normal” people are doing very well compared to last year as labor demand and wage rises at the low end are high, energy prices and food prices have come down, and housing is crashing in many areas. The upper middle class (i.e most software professionals on this site) and tech billionaires are having a shit year as tech stocks crash and weigh on the market. Don’t discount that you’re in an info bubble. The worst info bubbles are ones that affect the journalism industry and extremely online communities like the ones frequented by software engineers.

revlolz 4y ago
I think you had a little projection there calling me in a bubble. Why don't we focus on what is actually happening instead discrediting who I am with assumptions. Wages are stagnant, energy costs are going up. Hourly Wages change yoy https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Zeb7 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Zeb7 Energy Price Index https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Zebr https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Zebr >food prices have come down False, and before you blame the egg crisis on the reported avian flu, milk and bread demonstrate the same rise. Pick a product, it's gone up, PPI for all commodities shot up indicating macro changes to the economy (in this case reactions to inflation where producers raise rates) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ze8G https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ze8G eggs https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ze80 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ze80 milk https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ze8b https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ze8b bread https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ze8h https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ze8h >housing is crashing True, but not in ways that helps consumers. Landlords are doubling down and renting. Properties are sitting on market far longer than normal. Median sales price will decrease with interest rate changes, but with the root cause issue unresolved of lack of construction (supply), very large demand as the new generations age, and flippers and renter barons unchecked.. The housing market is not going to be affordable for low, middle, or even upper middle class citizens. I also think this kind of talk completely belittles how massive of a change occurred to housing prices in the last 5 years. Compare that to wage increases and viola, your normal every day person is in bad shape. median sales price https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ze67 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ze67 Do you want anecdote? People aren't doing well. Go talk to your neighbors. A single corrective change percent movement from GDP reported by Axios is manipulative and a narrative article in my opinion.
- comte7092 4y ago
  >Wages are stagnant The graph you linked shows wages increasing every month, consistently, over the last two years. It is also not measuring YoY, it’s MoM.
  - revlolz 4y ago
    Fair enough, I did not concisely or accurately demonstrate that wages adjusted for cpi have returned to ~2019 levels which in my mind seems stagnant.
    - comte7092 4y ago
      That’s a fair assessment. Wages have not adjusted uniformly, while inflation tends to hit people fairly equally, so some have benefited significantly more than others, while other have suffered significantly more than the rest.
rascul 4y ago
Food prices may have come down a little in the last year but they're still almost 2x what they were 2-3 years ago here. If energy includes gasoline well that is going back up to almost triple the price from 2-3 years ago in my area. Sure wages may have gone up some (mine did) but I can barely afford this economy now where before I was doing alright.

dragonwriter 4y ago

The quarter over quarter change shows strong and consistent growth since the brief COVID recession, so how exactly do you think that counters the YOY narrative? Additionally, unemployment, which almost invariably rises starting before a recession is low and flat. Real (inflation-adjusted) wages have risen the last two quarters, after falling due to inflation. [0] [0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q

revlolz 4y ago
Fair points. My opinion is best oversimplified would be due to our return to 2019 levels on wages with pricing on maslow items having skyrocketed. Rate changes and housing data keeps me uncomfortable.
kjkjadksj 4y ago
Otoh unemployment could be artificially low right now due to covid. You had a period of job loss and high unemployment, but along side that you had a period of lower than normal immigration. Meaning the total workers employed today, and in some hypothetical scenario where covid didnt happen and immigration kept pace, could very well be the same. Just with the former unemployment would be low and unemployment would be higher, but the same “pre recession jobs contraction” could be happening.