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> The tiny startup Make Sunsets, which had been experimenting with releasing sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere to reflect sunlight in order to cool the earth.

> The tiny startup Make Sunsets, which had been experimenting with releasing sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere to reflect sunlight in order to cool the earth. This is the mechanism in Neal Stephenson’s _Termination Shock_. The book’s plot depends on a future US government which is non-functional, thus no one can shut them down. These folks were planning to release 500g of sulfur dioxide — that’s completely insignificant, right? Just a POC? (I wouldn’t recommend the book. Even compared with his later work it’s unfocused and dull.)

deleted 4y ago
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andyjsong 4y ago
Correct, completely insignificant, this is our "hello world" deployment, but we're pushing to prod and skipping staging. As more people buy, we will increase our payload and measure what we can. It's extreme, but if you have a better solution like scaling up fusion tomorrow, we're kinda fucked if we don't cool the planet.
perihelions 4y ago
Here's a reference point: - "Mount Pinatubo’s violent eruption [in 1991] injected about 15 million tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. The resulting sulfuric acid aerosols remained in the stratosphere for about two years, and cooled the Earth’s surface by a range of 1 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit." https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2019/2018-s-biggest-volcanic-eruption-of-sulfur-dioxide https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2019/2018-s-biggest-vol... Looks like they're about 10.5 orders of magnitude short (of globally significant effects).
jxf 4y ago
> These folks were planning to release 500g of sulfur dioxide — that’s completely insignificant, right? Just a POC? Yes, that is a practically undetectable addition of SO2. For reference, the US emitted approximately 2M tons of SO2 in 2019; that's about 1.8 billion kg. The 500g here is approximately one part in one billion. If the startup added 500g of SO2 every single day for the next 10,000 years, they would add 1% to the total SO2 emissions of just 2019.
- perihelions 4y ago
  Keep in mind that ordinary SO₂ pollution doesn't make its way into the stratosphere. It's a different problem.
  - jxf 4y ago
    You're 100% right; I'm just drawing a comparison for the sake of scale.
  - mcv 4y ago
    Isn't that kind of SO2 release the cause of acid rain? Because that's not good. If we're going to release those millions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere anyway, maybe it makes sense to release it into the stratosphere instead, to duplicate the cooling effect of the volcano. Although that's not so easily done. Also, apart from a cooling effect, what other effects did that volcanic release of SO2 have?
    - jxf 4y ago
      The cooling effect comes in part from a reduction of light reaching the Earth's surface, lowering the amount of energy that plants receive to grow.
      - mcv 4y ago
        I looked it up on Wikipedia: > The powerful eruption of such an enormous volume of lava and ash injected significant quantities of aerosols and dust into the stratosphere. Sulfur dioxide oxidized in the atmosphere to produce a haze of sulfuric acid droplets, which gradually spread throughout the stratosphere over the year following the eruption. The injection of aerosols into the stratosphere is thought to have been the largest since the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa, with a total mass of SO 2 of about 17,000,000 t (19,000,000 short tons) being injected – the largest volume ever recorded by modern instruments (see chart and figure). > Satellite measurements of ash and aerosol emissions from Mount Pinatubo This very large stratospheric injection resulted in a volcanic winter, a reduction in the normal amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface by roughly 10% (see figure). This led to a decrease in Northern Hemisphere average temperatures of 0.5–0.6 °C (0.9–1.1 °F) and a global decrease of about 0.4 °C (0.7 °F).[21][22] At the same time, the temperature in the stratosphere rose to several degrees higher than normal, due to the absorption of radiation by the aerosol. The stratospheric cloud from the eruption persisted in the atmosphere for three years. The eruption, while not directly responsible, may have played a part in the formation of the 1993 Storm of the Century.[23] > The eruption had a significant effect on ozone levels in the atmosphere, causing a large increase in the destruction rate of ozone. Ozone levels at middle latitudes reached their lowest recorded levels, while in the Southern Hemisphere winter of 1992, the ozone hole over Antarctica reached its largest ever size until then, with the fastest recorded ozone depletion rates. The eruption of Mount Hudson in Chile in August 1991 also contributed to southern hemisphere ozone destruction, with measurements showing a sharp decrease in ozone levels at the tropopause when the aerosol clouds from Pinatubo and Hudson arrived. Another noticeable effect of the dust in the atmosphere was the appearance of lunar eclipses. Normally even at mid-eclipse, the moon is still visible although much dimmed, whereas in the year following the Pinatubo eruption, the moon was hardly visible at all during eclipses, due to much greater absorption of sunlight by dust in the atmosphere. It has also been suggested that excess cloud condensation nuclei from the eruption were responsible for the "Great Flood of 1993" in the Midwestern United States. So while no effect on plant growth is mentioned, it may have caused a major storm, a major flood, and enlarged the hole in the ozone layer. Sounds like a bad idea overall. Especially since that reduction in temperature was only temporary. For this approach to have any long-term impact, you'd have to keep injecting SO2 into the stratosphere every year.
mprime1 4y ago
> I wouldn’t recommend the book. Even compared with his later work it’s unfocused and dull Disagree. I do recommend it. Just don’t expect a Snow Crash or Diamond Age. Everything in the book uses contemporary technology.
inasio 4y ago
Pina2bo here we go! I think the first 1/4 or so of the book was a riff on the famous `How do I kill 30-50 feral hogs ...`[0] tweet. I did like the book though. [0] https://nitter.lacontrevoie.fr/williemcnabb/status/1158045307562856448?lang=en https://nitter.lacontrevoie.fr/williemcnabb/status/115804530...
roomey 4y ago
I liked the book, he has a style, its a bit like Marmite I think. The scary thing is so many of the predictions he makes in his books have come through! I would recommend his books to people who like going off on tangents and want to spend a bit of time in characters and less in plot progression.
dmazin 4y ago
Important note: in another YC post the founder said he was inspired by Termination Shock.
p0pcult 4y ago
I'd recommend the book, not because of the writing per se, but because of the hypotheses it delivers about the necessity and efficacy of solar geoengineering. There are lots of reasons to read books.

deleted 4y ago

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andyjsong 4y ago

Correct, completely insignificant, this is our "hello world" deployment, but we're pushing to prod and skipping staging. As more people buy, we will increase our payload and measure what we can. It's extreme, but if you have a better solution like scaling up fusion tomorrow, we're kinda fucked if we don't cool the planet.

perihelions 4y ago

Here's a reference point: - "Mount Pinatubo’s violent eruption [in 1991] injected about 15 million tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. The resulting sulfuric acid aerosols remained in the stratosphere for about two years, and cooled the Earth’s surface by a range of 1 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit." https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2019/2018-s-biggest-volcanic-eruption-of-sulfur-dioxide https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2019/2018-s-biggest-vol... Looks like they're about 10.5 orders of magnitude short (of globally significant effects).

jxf 4y ago

> These folks were planning to release 500g of sulfur dioxide — that’s completely insignificant, right? Just a POC? Yes, that is a practically undetectable addition of SO2. For reference, the US emitted approximately 2M tons of SO2 in 2019; that's about 1.8 billion kg. The 500g here is approximately one part in one billion. If the startup added 500g of SO2 every single day for the next 10,000 years, they would add 1% to the total SO2 emissions of just 2019.

perihelions 4y ago
Keep in mind that ordinary SO₂ pollution doesn't make its way into the stratosphere. It's a different problem.
- jxf 4y ago
  You're 100% right; I'm just drawing a comparison for the sake of scale.
- mcv 4y ago
  Isn't that kind of SO2 release the cause of acid rain? Because that's not good. If we're going to release those millions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere anyway, maybe it makes sense to release it into the stratosphere instead, to duplicate the cooling effect of the volcano. Although that's not so easily done. Also, apart from a cooling effect, what other effects did that volcanic release of SO2 have?
  - jxf 4y ago
    The cooling effect comes in part from a reduction of light reaching the Earth's surface, lowering the amount of energy that plants receive to grow.
    - mcv 4y ago
      I looked it up on Wikipedia: > The powerful eruption of such an enormous volume of lava and ash injected significant quantities of aerosols and dust into the stratosphere. Sulfur dioxide oxidized in the atmosphere to produce a haze of sulfuric acid droplets, which gradually spread throughout the stratosphere over the year following the eruption. The injection of aerosols into the stratosphere is thought to have been the largest since the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa, with a total mass of SO 2 of about 17,000,000 t (19,000,000 short tons) being injected – the largest volume ever recorded by modern instruments (see chart and figure). > Satellite measurements of ash and aerosol emissions from Mount Pinatubo This very large stratospheric injection resulted in a volcanic winter, a reduction in the normal amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface by roughly 10% (see figure). This led to a decrease in Northern Hemisphere average temperatures of 0.5–0.6 °C (0.9–1.1 °F) and a global decrease of about 0.4 °C (0.7 °F).[21][22] At the same time, the temperature in the stratosphere rose to several degrees higher than normal, due to the absorption of radiation by the aerosol. The stratospheric cloud from the eruption persisted in the atmosphere for three years. The eruption, while not directly responsible, may have played a part in the formation of the 1993 Storm of the Century.[23] > The eruption had a significant effect on ozone levels in the atmosphere, causing a large increase in the destruction rate of ozone. Ozone levels at middle latitudes reached their lowest recorded levels, while in the Southern Hemisphere winter of 1992, the ozone hole over Antarctica reached its largest ever size until then, with the fastest recorded ozone depletion rates. The eruption of Mount Hudson in Chile in August 1991 also contributed to southern hemisphere ozone destruction, with measurements showing a sharp decrease in ozone levels at the tropopause when the aerosol clouds from Pinatubo and Hudson arrived. Another noticeable effect of the dust in the atmosphere was the appearance of lunar eclipses. Normally even at mid-eclipse, the moon is still visible although much dimmed, whereas in the year following the Pinatubo eruption, the moon was hardly visible at all during eclipses, due to much greater absorption of sunlight by dust in the atmosphere. It has also been suggested that excess cloud condensation nuclei from the eruption were responsible for the "Great Flood of 1993" in the Midwestern United States. So while no effect on plant growth is mentioned, it may have caused a major storm, a major flood, and enlarged the hole in the ozone layer. Sounds like a bad idea overall. Especially since that reduction in temperature was only temporary. For this approach to have any long-term impact, you'd have to keep injecting SO2 into the stratosphere every year.

mprime1 4y ago

> I wouldn’t recommend the book. Even compared with his later work it’s unfocused and dull Disagree. I do recommend it. Just don’t expect a Snow Crash or Diamond Age. Everything in the book uses contemporary technology.

inasio 4y ago

Pina2bo here we go! I think the first 1/4 or so of the book was a riff on the famous `How do I kill 30-50 feral hogs ...`[0] tweet. I did like the book though. [0] https://nitter.lacontrevoie.fr/williemcnabb/status/1158045307562856448?lang=en https://nitter.lacontrevoie.fr/williemcnabb/status/115804530...

roomey 4y ago

I liked the book, he has a style, its a bit like Marmite I think. The scary thing is so many of the predictions he makes in his books have come through! I would recommend his books to people who like going off on tangents and want to spend a bit of time in characters and less in plot progression.

dmazin 4y ago

Important note: in another YC post the founder said he was inspired by Termination Shock.

p0pcult 4y ago

I'd recommend the book, not because of the writing per se, but because of the hypotheses it delivers about the necessity and efficacy of solar geoengineering. There are lots of reasons to read books.