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What data are you using to suggest that China will surpass US wealth and power by 2024-2025? It's just ordinary arithmetic. The GDP growth line of the US is a
by simonblack 4y ago
What data are you using to suggest that China will surpass US wealth and power by 2024-2025?
It's just ordinary arithmetic. The GDP growth line of the US is a flatter line than the GDP-growth line for China. In cases like this the lower line eventually intersects the upper line and continues higher. China's economy when measured as PPP overtook the US economy about 7 or 8 years back.
Then again, The US of 2023 is a 'service economy' which makes its money from non-tangible items rather than the manufacturing economy the US had back in the 1940s and 1950s when the US was at the height of its wealth and power. The country that has the manufacturing strength in 2023 is China.
Again, the US of today has a debt of over 30 trillion. It also has inflation of around 8-10%. To bring that under control, the US will have to increase interest rates. But the US can't AFFORD to do that. To raise the interest rates the several percent required to fix inflation means that the US government will be paying out more in interest than it is receiving in taxes. (An interest rate RISE of just 3% means that the EXTRA interest payment for the US government is HIGHER THAN THE WHOLE OF THE DEFENSE BUDGET!)
The US is heading for even faster decline relative to China.
but I don't think it has as much to do with China as you think.
In some ways you're correct. But the US always looks at it that way. The US is caught between two doctrines that force it to look at things that way: the Wolfowitz Doctrine and the Doctrine of US Exceptionalism. Both of those doctrines will not allow any other entity to be more powerful than the US. (Also sometimes called the Thucydides Trap)