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At this point I've lost track of the number of people who extrapolated from contemporary challenges in AI to predict future shortcomings turning out incredibly
by kromem 4y ago
At this point I've lost track of the number of people who extrapolated from contemporary challenges in AI to predict future shortcomings turning out incredibly wrong within just a few years.
It's like there seems to be some sort of bias where over and over when it comes to AI vs human capabilities many humans keep looking at the present and fail to factor in acceleration and not just velocity in their expectations for the future rate of change.
- ben_w 4y agoIt's very easy to be wrong as an optimist as well as a pessimist. Back in 2009 I was expecting by 2019 to be able to buy a car in a dealership that didn't have a steering wheel because the self-driving AI would just be that good. Closest we got to that is Waymo taxis in just a few cities. It's good! So is Tesla's thing! Just, both are much much less than I was expecting.
- varajelle 4y agoIt's like predicting that flying will never be a mode of transportation while laughing about Wright brothers's planes crashing
- esjeon 4y agoI also have never been able to count the number of people who make obviously invalid optimistic prediction without understanding the tech nor the limitation of the current paradigm. They don’t see the tech itself, but only see the recent developments (ignoring the decades of progress) and concludes it is a fast moving field. It all sounds like what bitcoin people used to say. This whole debate is another FOMO shitshow. People just don’t want to “miss” any big things, so they just bet on a random side rather than actually learning how things work. Anything past this point is like watching a football game, as what matters is who’s winning. Nothing about the tech itself matters. A big facepalm I should make.