If p is the probability of success, then probability of 1500 successes in 150 independent trials is p^150. With p = 0.99, the chance you see 150 successes in a

If p is the probability of success, then probability of 1500 successes in 150 independent trials is p^150. With p = 0.99, the chance you see 150 successes in a row is 0.22. If we take significance level to be the standard 0.05, then we cannot reject the hypothesis that the chance of success of Falcon 9 is less than 99%. We can, however, reject the hypothesis that it's less than 98%: if it was 98%, then in 150 trials, probability of all successes is 0.048, which is smaller than 0.05.