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The data above had Norway at 20% at 2 years, so it would be surprising to still be 20% at 5 years. They're also low population, and quite wealthy from the gian

The data above had Norway at 20% at 2 years, so it would be surprising to still be 20% at 5 years. They're also low population, and quite wealthy from the giant oil fields national income. If you broke the 330 million in the US into 5 million sized chunks, you likely find well performing outliers like Norway too. That's the problem when assuming a small thing should scale.

autoexec 4y ago
> The data above had Norway at 20% at 2 years, so it would be surprising to still be 20% at 5 years. This article puts it at 25% (https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-48885846 https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-48885846) which admittedly isn't 20, but isn't far off. Wikipedia has it at 20% after 5 years using 2016 data, but I haven't checked their sources on that (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_Norway https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_Norway)
- SideQuark 4y ago
  The article is a quote from someone talking offhand who is not a researcher. The wiki claim has three sources listed, none of which state the claim. The first claims 20%, no timeframe (so may well be the same 2 year value stated lots of places), the second sources the 20% in 2 years and a report (which looks to be a decent study, but does not have any claim of 25% at 5 years), and the third again has the 20% at 2 years with a linked report (the report also has that data). Not one is a very good source, and if the person speaking for an interview were right, you'd think that data would appear all the times the 20% at 2 appears. Given that, and that the data I cited was from a careful study [1] including lots of research from many countries (including the 20% at 2 years results from Norway), I tend to think the 25% is more or less made up wishful thinking. If it were defensible, it would be cited in other studies that aggregate all this data. When you find something online, try to determine it's original source. Someone simply saying something is not generally true unless it's from a reputable place that actually measured it. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6743246/pdf/wellcomeopenres-4-17992.pdf https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6743246/pdf/wel...

autoexec 4y ago

> The data above had Norway at 20% at 2 years, so it would be surprising to still be 20% at 5 years. This article puts it at 25% (https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-48885846 https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-48885846) which admittedly isn't 20, but isn't far off. Wikipedia has it at 20% after 5 years using 2016 data, but I haven't checked their sources on that (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_Norway https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_Norway)

SideQuark 4y ago
The article is a quote from someone talking offhand who is not a researcher. The wiki claim has three sources listed, none of which state the claim. The first claims 20%, no timeframe (so may well be the same 2 year value stated lots of places), the second sources the 20% in 2 years and a report (which looks to be a decent study, but does not have any claim of 25% at 5 years), and the third again has the 20% at 2 years with a linked report (the report also has that data). Not one is a very good source, and if the person speaking for an interview were right, you'd think that data would appear all the times the 20% at 2 appears. Given that, and that the data I cited was from a careful study [1] including lots of research from many countries (including the 20% at 2 years results from Norway), I tend to think the 25% is more or less made up wishful thinking. If it were defensible, it would be cited in other studies that aggregate all this data. When you find something online, try to determine it's original source. Someone simply saying something is not generally true unless it's from a reputable place that actually measured it. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6743246/pdf/wellcomeopenres-4-17992.pdf https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6743246/pdf/wel...