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Feel like if we believe this was a pilot suicide then it would also be important to try to address that - though I'm not sure how unless we fully automated (and

Feel like if we believe this was a pilot suicide then it would also be important to try to address that - though I'm not sure how unless we fully automated (and people liked that). There has been a German and Chinese flight since with 100+ fatalities where this happened. Given how few crashes there are on commercial flights its one of the biggest risk factors today.

azalemeth 4y ago
It's still a great shame that there is no recent update on the Chinese flight MU-5735. AvHerald last had an update in April 2022 and the whole thing has a strong feeling of media silence. I do wonder if it is a pilot suicide though -- that isn't yet confirmed. (0) https://avherald.com/h?article=4f64be2f&opt=7680 https://avherald.com/h?article=4f64be2f&opt=7680
ggm 4y ago
Risk has to be put in context. It's one of the biggest risks, where all the risks are fantastically low against number of flights and passenger/miles. All airline risks are lower than driving. I would have said the 787 lithium battery risk was more concerning personally. Or the 737 Max problem.
- coredog64 4y ago
  In ‘97, there was SilkAir 185. NTSB was fairly certain that was pilot suicide. Another one was EgyptAir 990 in ‘99. In terms of fatalities and hull losses, pilot suicide is a much larger risk than the 737 Max. It’s made worse by outdated FAA rules that would have pilots grounded for seeking treatment.
  - toast0 4y ago
    737 Max had two losses in the first two years of operation. That's maybe a decade of commercial flights (at least suspected of) intentionally downed by an authorized pilot according to this list [1]. If you consider that the number of 737 Maxes in service was not that large, it's pretty clear that MCAS was more dangerous than pilot suicide. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_by_pilot https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_by_pilot
- idontpost 4y ago
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- dghlsakjg 4y ago
  To be fair, the oft cited “air travel is safer than cars” statistic is on a passenger mileage basis. When you pack an order of magnitude more people at a time going an order of magnitude faster than a cad it looks super safe. If you compare it on an hourly basis it is still safer but not nearly as safe as people would like to think. Especially if you add in small commercial/charter planes
  - ggm 4y ago
    Absolutely agree. That's why I said passenger/miles in my comment. Because of more active drivers and low occupancy cars, I would think from first principles for a constant rate of suicide ideation in the population the risk of death by driver suicide as a side effect is high, and must actually be higher than pilot suicide risk. You are not in the car but the accident affects you. You are driving more often that it's more statistically likely to drive near another driver who deliberately drives dangerously, than the risk of a pilot ending it all. But if we stop obsessing with the risk of pilot suicide and were just talking overall risk, passenger/miles is the best measure there is. Trains might win.
mrguyorama 4y ago
One huge problem for pilots is that any mention of mental illness, in any way, can basically result in you being grounded. Taking medication for your brain can get you grounded. So fall into a depression and need to talk to a therapist and get a pill to help you out while you get back on your emotional feet? Well now your airline is going to ground you for however long they feel like. They are incentivized to be as careful as possible about known issues. This means pilots feel like they have to bottle up things like anxiety or depression or suicidal thoughts, which of course means they might not get the help they need.
- dghlsakjg 4y ago
  More to the point, any history of mental illness or treatment at any point in your life can cause you to be arbitrarily grounded in the future, at which point you have to go through an opaque government process that is months long and has no real guidelines as to how to prove yourself. There is plenty of anecdotal evidence indicating that pilots will seek treatment under false names, or, worse, self medicate with alcohol for what would otherwise be treatable and minor conditions. When I got my medical I was coached by my instructor to volunteer absolutely no information that wasn’t asked. It was strongly hinted that I should not recall ever having been treated or diagnosed with any mental condition.

azalemeth 4y ago

It's still a great shame that there is no recent update on the Chinese flight MU-5735. AvHerald last had an update in April 2022 and the whole thing has a strong feeling of media silence. I do wonder if it is a pilot suicide though -- that isn't yet confirmed. (0) https://avherald.com/h?article=4f64be2f&opt=7680 https://avherald.com/h?article=4f64be2f&opt=7680

ggm 4y ago

Risk has to be put in context. It's one of the biggest risks, where all the risks are fantastically low against number of flights and passenger/miles. All airline risks are lower than driving. I would have said the 787 lithium battery risk was more concerning personally. Or the 737 Max problem.

coredog64 4y ago
In ‘97, there was SilkAir 185. NTSB was fairly certain that was pilot suicide. Another one was EgyptAir 990 in ‘99. In terms of fatalities and hull losses, pilot suicide is a much larger risk than the 737 Max. It’s made worse by outdated FAA rules that would have pilots grounded for seeking treatment.
- toast0 4y ago
  737 Max had two losses in the first two years of operation. That's maybe a decade of commercial flights (at least suspected of) intentionally downed by an authorized pilot according to this list [1]. If you consider that the number of 737 Maxes in service was not that large, it's pretty clear that MCAS was more dangerous than pilot suicide. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_by_pilot https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_by_pilot
idontpost 4y ago
[dead]
dghlsakjg 4y ago
To be fair, the oft cited “air travel is safer than cars” statistic is on a passenger mileage basis. When you pack an order of magnitude more people at a time going an order of magnitude faster than a cad it looks super safe. If you compare it on an hourly basis it is still safer but not nearly as safe as people would like to think. Especially if you add in small commercial/charter planes
- ggm 4y ago
  Absolutely agree. That's why I said passenger/miles in my comment. Because of more active drivers and low occupancy cars, I would think from first principles for a constant rate of suicide ideation in the population the risk of death by driver suicide as a side effect is high, and must actually be higher than pilot suicide risk. You are not in the car but the accident affects you. You are driving more often that it's more statistically likely to drive near another driver who deliberately drives dangerously, than the risk of a pilot ending it all. But if we stop obsessing with the risk of pilot suicide and were just talking overall risk, passenger/miles is the best measure there is. Trains might win.

mrguyorama 4y ago

One huge problem for pilots is that any mention of mental illness, in any way, can basically result in you being grounded. Taking medication for your brain can get you grounded. So fall into a depression and need to talk to a therapist and get a pill to help you out while you get back on your emotional feet? Well now your airline is going to ground you for however long they feel like. They are incentivized to be as careful as possible about known issues. This means pilots feel like they have to bottle up things like anxiety or depression or suicidal thoughts, which of course means they might not get the help they need.

dghlsakjg 4y ago
More to the point, any history of mental illness or treatment at any point in your life can cause you to be arbitrarily grounded in the future, at which point you have to go through an opaque government process that is months long and has no real guidelines as to how to prove yourself. There is plenty of anecdotal evidence indicating that pilots will seek treatment under false names, or, worse, self medicate with alcohol for what would otherwise be treatable and minor conditions. When I got my medical I was coached by my instructor to volunteer absolutely no information that wasn’t asked. It was strongly hinted that I should not recall ever having been treated or diagnosed with any mental condition.