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Are you using metrics that are gameable? For instance some predictors of future criminality are past criminality, and education level. This heavily incentivize

Are you using metrics that are gameable? For instance some predictors of future criminality are past criminality, and education level. This heavily incentivizes people to commit crimes and drop out of school. So you are forced to only use metrics that are outside their control such as parent's previous income level. And you'll get nowhere near a 50% false positive rate using only these metrics. Not to mention all of the frustration felt by their neighbor who is working 40 hours a week and taking home $25,000 a year, while they sit at home playing xbox for 50k a year.

Eddy_Viscosity2 4y ago
The AI is very smart and can't be gamed. It's a thought experiment, the AI is amazingly accurate. That neighbor earning $25k a year would rightfully be upset, minimum wage is a joke.
- JamesBarney 4y ago
  If we had some super AI that couldn't get gamed, yes it would make sense at least from a financial standpoint. But once we have a singularity Also we don't produce enough goods in the economy to make a 50k UBI possible.
Spivak 4y ago
> their neighbor who is working 40 hours a week and taking home $25,000 a year, while they sit at home playing xbox for 50k a year And they wouldn't be mad that inmates are getting $100k/yr in court mandated housing services sitting in a cell doing nothing because for some insane reason we decided that it's a good use of our money and their time? Does it suddenly make it okay as long as they're suffering while they do it?
- lelanthran 4y ago
  > Does it suddenly make it okay as long as they're suffering while they do it? Yes. What a stupid question, of course people would rather pay money to punish criminals than to pay that money to have them play videogames. You might argue that people shouldn't think that way, but not only do all apes have a sense of fairness, almost all other semi intelligent creatures do too. Asking people to go go against a built-in drive is like asking teenagers to practice abstinence.
- JamesBarney 4y ago
  The inmates don't receive 100k/year. If we didn't have prisons would we punish criminals in a different way or just let criminal commit as many crimes as they'd like? I guess taking a hand or a foot is cheaper than a prison but most people think prison is more human.
  - Spivak 4y ago
    Does the difference matter? You're still out $100k/yr. If you pay for my rent, food, clothes, electricity, heat, water, gym membership, healthcare, internet, and a one person subscription to rent-a-prison-guard the fact that I'm not seeing the cash is immaterial. > would we punish criminals in a different way Yes, this is implied. The most popular alternative is "house arrest" (i.e "adult grounding") where you're monitored but allowed to go to work, school, and essential places like the doctor, grocery store, etc.. If you need more we can keep stacking on things like garnished wages, daily detention, mandatory community service. I think that's way more human. The number of people that, for the safety of others, need to be separated from society I think it's vanishingly small, and smaller than that the number who are such a danger that they require confinement in cells.
    - JamesBarney 4y ago
      State prisons are 60% violent offences. Robbery, assault, rape, and murder. Another ~8% are burglaries which have a high likelihood of leading to violence.
      - Spivak 4y ago
        Well let the other 40% out and then we can start looking at the 60%. This kind of thinking makes no sense in a world where prison sentences are finite. If you think being arrested for a “violent” offense means you are such a danger to others you have to be physically separated from society then you might as well make all prison sentences for life. “But people can reform” — Great then let them out the moment that happens. Get rid of minimum sentencing. The thing I care about when it comes to “violent” offenses isn’t what they did but why. If I had an oracle that could see into their soul and know with certainty they would never reoffend I wouldn’t even bother locking them up at all. And if their offense was situational I want to see that corrected first. For $100k/yr we can be a lot more creative about setting people up for success. That kind of money is at the level of send them off to college or trade school, full time caretaker, the very best psych care, rehab, full-on relocation, or pulling them entirely out of poverty. Prison being the place where people with issues society has decided we don’t want to deal with is heartbreaking. If we have any other option we should take it.

Eddy_Viscosity2 4y ago

The AI is very smart and can't be gamed. It's a thought experiment, the AI is amazingly accurate. That neighbor earning $25k a year would rightfully be upset, minimum wage is a joke.

JamesBarney 4y ago
If we had some super AI that couldn't get gamed, yes it would make sense at least from a financial standpoint. But once we have a singularity Also we don't produce enough goods in the economy to make a 50k UBI possible.

Spivak 4y ago

> their neighbor who is working 40 hours a week and taking home $25,000 a year, while they sit at home playing xbox for 50k a year And they wouldn't be mad that inmates are getting $100k/yr in court mandated housing services sitting in a cell doing nothing because for some insane reason we decided that it's a good use of our money and their time? Does it suddenly make it okay as long as they're suffering while they do it?

lelanthran 4y ago
> Does it suddenly make it okay as long as they're suffering while they do it? Yes. What a stupid question, of course people would rather pay money to punish criminals than to pay that money to have them play videogames. You might argue that people shouldn't think that way, but not only do all apes have a sense of fairness, almost all other semi intelligent creatures do too. Asking people to go go against a built-in drive is like asking teenagers to practice abstinence.
JamesBarney 4y ago
The inmates don't receive 100k/year. If we didn't have prisons would we punish criminals in a different way or just let criminal commit as many crimes as they'd like? I guess taking a hand or a foot is cheaper than a prison but most people think prison is more human.
- Spivak 4y ago
  Does the difference matter? You're still out $100k/yr. If you pay for my rent, food, clothes, electricity, heat, water, gym membership, healthcare, internet, and a one person subscription to rent-a-prison-guard the fact that I'm not seeing the cash is immaterial. > would we punish criminals in a different way Yes, this is implied. The most popular alternative is "house arrest" (i.e "adult grounding") where you're monitored but allowed to go to work, school, and essential places like the doctor, grocery store, etc.. If you need more we can keep stacking on things like garnished wages, daily detention, mandatory community service. I think that's way more human. The number of people that, for the safety of others, need to be separated from society I think it's vanishingly small, and smaller than that the number who are such a danger that they require confinement in cells.
  - JamesBarney 4y ago
    State prisons are 60% violent offences. Robbery, assault, rape, and murder. Another ~8% are burglaries which have a high likelihood of leading to violence.
    - Spivak 4y ago
      Well let the other 40% out and then we can start looking at the 60%. This kind of thinking makes no sense in a world where prison sentences are finite. If you think being arrested for a “violent” offense means you are such a danger to others you have to be physically separated from society then you might as well make all prison sentences for life. “But people can reform” — Great then let them out the moment that happens. Get rid of minimum sentencing. The thing I care about when it comes to “violent” offenses isn’t what they did but why. If I had an oracle that could see into their soul and know with certainty they would never reoffend I wouldn’t even bother locking them up at all. And if their offense was situational I want to see that corrected first. For $100k/yr we can be a lot more creative about setting people up for success. That kind of money is at the level of send them off to college or trade school, full time caretaker, the very best psych care, rehab, full-on relocation, or pulling them entirely out of poverty. Prison being the place where people with issues society has decided we don’t want to deal with is heartbreaking. If we have any other option we should take it.