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> No one knows if those Hypersonics actually can kill a carrier though. No one needs to. Just damaging a nuclear powered, nuclear armed carrier would be more

> No one knows if those Hypersonics actually can kill a carrier though. No one needs to. Just damaging a nuclear powered, nuclear armed carrier would be more than sufficient. Probably just making a splash near one. The design premise of these assets is fighting WW3 where the stakes are high enough to tolerate the risk, not a skirmish over a foreign island. Where they have been deployed since WW2 there was little to no risk or loss to enemy action. That is not operative with China.

dragontamer 4y ago
Latest wargame IIRC says USA loses 2 carriers in the defense of Taiwan. If the USA decides to defend Taiwan, it means that risking carriers becomes an acceptable risk. Remember that Taiwan controls over 60% of the world's chip production, including every single iPhone, iPad, Nintendo Switch, PS5, XBox, AMD, and NVidia chip ever made (as well as a couple of Intel Xe GPUs)... and most of those car chips also come from Taiwan. It has been identified as a critical infrastructure for even US Weapons, which rely upon some of these chips. If Taiwan is lost, that means for a few years (or more), USA can't get new military equipment... at least not with any of the fancy high tech computer parts. US Factories of all kinds, consumer electronics, car manufacturing (especially electronic critical safety equipment: antilock brakes, airbags, tire pressure monitors), most servers (AMD EPYC and NVidia A100s are Taiwan made) and even weapon manufacturing shuts down. The supply chain risk is astronomical. Two carriers would be cheap compared to the loss of Taiwan.
- topspin 4y ago
  > Latest wargame A sincere question; what is "latest wargame?" Does "latest wargame" compute the political equivalent of an extinction level bolide impact when a US Navy nuclear aircraft carrier gets destroyed, leaving propulsion reactors and nuclear warheads on the bottom of the Pacific, not to mention a few thousand men? I'm thinking you and I have different concepts of the stakes involved here. I believe the Western establishment will need far more at stake than a couple (more) years of supply chain troubles before it will put its capital military assets in the way of the Chinese military. I suppose we'll find out. China will assert itself at some point and Taiwan is #1 on that bucket list.
  - dragontamer 4y ago
    > I believe the Western establishment will need far more at stake than a couple (more) years of supply chain troubles before it will put its capital military assets in the way of the Chinese military. You're severely underestimating the importance of Taiwan. 60% of every chip in the world, and 100% of the most advanced chips (ie: Apple iPhone, AMD EPYC, NVidia A100) comes from that island, and no one else in the world knows how to make those chips. I don't know how the economy will reorganized if Taiwan is neutralized, but it won't be pretty. It'd be an extinction level event for entire industries. ------------ USA isn't even economically tied to Ukraine, and you can see our response to that. Taiwan on the other hand, has deep ties that underpin the largest sectors of the USA's economic wellbeing. The chip issue over the past few years is nothing compared to what would happen if Taiwan were successfully blockaded by China.
    - topspin 4y ago
      I really wish you had answered my question about war games. > USA isn't even economically tied to Ukraine, and you can see our response to that. There aren't any US nuclear assets at stake in Ukraine. No flag ships or other sovereign symbols. No body count of US servicemen. That's not a strong analogy.
      - dragontamer 4y ago
        Was "Google 2 Carrier Taiwan Wargame" too hard to search on? https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/09/politics/taiwan-invasion-war-game-intl-hnk-ml/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/09/politics/taiwan-invasion-war-... China will likely launch missiles and attempt to destroy Japanese, maybe even Philippine bases to hamper US supply lines. USA will be forced to forward deploy multiple Carriers into the risk zone, and roughly ~2 Carriers are expected to be killed. China probably can weaken the US Navy enough to attempt a landing, but no such landing seems like it'd be successful. US, Taiwan, and China take major losses, but the island likely will remain in Taiwan's control. > There aren't any US nuclear assets at stake in Ukraine. No flag ships or other sovereign symbols. No body count of US servicemen. That's not a strong analogy. Funny how you ignore my point and rather focus on the side-comments. Losing Taiwan is an extinction level event for multiple, major US Industries and service sectors. Period. USA is too economically tied to that island. Bonus points: a lot of these technology sectors (ex: Servers / AMD EPYC, and AI with NVidia A100 chips) are essential to US strategic level initiatives, like our supercomputer projects, DoD cloud initiatives, and the like. Losing Taiwan would be a direct blow to US Military and weaken us in the decades to come. Its not "just" an economic problem, it is also a military and strength problem.

dragontamer 4y ago

Latest wargame IIRC says USA loses 2 carriers in the defense of Taiwan. If the USA decides to defend Taiwan, it means that risking carriers becomes an acceptable risk. Remember that Taiwan controls over 60% of the world's chip production, including every single iPhone, iPad, Nintendo Switch, PS5, XBox, AMD, and NVidia chip ever made (as well as a couple of Intel Xe GPUs)... and most of those car chips also come from Taiwan. It has been identified as a critical infrastructure for even US Weapons, which rely upon some of these chips. If Taiwan is lost, that means for a few years (or more), USA can't get new military equipment... at least not with any of the fancy high tech computer parts. US Factories of all kinds, consumer electronics, car manufacturing (especially electronic critical safety equipment: antilock brakes, airbags, tire pressure monitors), most servers (AMD EPYC and NVidia A100s are Taiwan made) and even weapon manufacturing shuts down. The supply chain risk is astronomical. Two carriers would be cheap compared to the loss of Taiwan.

topspin 4y ago
> Latest wargame A sincere question; what is "latest wargame?" Does "latest wargame" compute the political equivalent of an extinction level bolide impact when a US Navy nuclear aircraft carrier gets destroyed, leaving propulsion reactors and nuclear warheads on the bottom of the Pacific, not to mention a few thousand men? I'm thinking you and I have different concepts of the stakes involved here. I believe the Western establishment will need far more at stake than a couple (more) years of supply chain troubles before it will put its capital military assets in the way of the Chinese military. I suppose we'll find out. China will assert itself at some point and Taiwan is #1 on that bucket list.
- dragontamer 4y ago
  > I believe the Western establishment will need far more at stake than a couple (more) years of supply chain troubles before it will put its capital military assets in the way of the Chinese military. You're severely underestimating the importance of Taiwan. 60% of every chip in the world, and 100% of the most advanced chips (ie: Apple iPhone, AMD EPYC, NVidia A100) comes from that island, and no one else in the world knows how to make those chips. I don't know how the economy will reorganized if Taiwan is neutralized, but it won't be pretty. It'd be an extinction level event for entire industries. ------------ USA isn't even economically tied to Ukraine, and you can see our response to that. Taiwan on the other hand, has deep ties that underpin the largest sectors of the USA's economic wellbeing. The chip issue over the past few years is nothing compared to what would happen if Taiwan were successfully blockaded by China.
  - topspin 4y ago
    I really wish you had answered my question about war games. > USA isn't even economically tied to Ukraine, and you can see our response to that. There aren't any US nuclear assets at stake in Ukraine. No flag ships or other sovereign symbols. No body count of US servicemen. That's not a strong analogy.
    - dragontamer 4y ago
      Was "Google 2 Carrier Taiwan Wargame" too hard to search on? https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/09/politics/taiwan-invasion-war-game-intl-hnk-ml/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/09/politics/taiwan-invasion-war-... China will likely launch missiles and attempt to destroy Japanese, maybe even Philippine bases to hamper US supply lines. USA will be forced to forward deploy multiple Carriers into the risk zone, and roughly ~2 Carriers are expected to be killed. China probably can weaken the US Navy enough to attempt a landing, but no such landing seems like it'd be successful. US, Taiwan, and China take major losses, but the island likely will remain in Taiwan's control. > There aren't any US nuclear assets at stake in Ukraine. No flag ships or other sovereign symbols. No body count of US servicemen. That's not a strong analogy. Funny how you ignore my point and rather focus on the side-comments. Losing Taiwan is an extinction level event for multiple, major US Industries and service sectors. Period. USA is too economically tied to that island. Bonus points: a lot of these technology sectors (ex: Servers / AMD EPYC, and AI with NVidia A100 chips) are essential to US strategic level initiatives, like our supercomputer projects, DoD cloud initiatives, and the like. Losing Taiwan would be a direct blow to US Military and weaken us in the decades to come. Its not "just" an economic problem, it is also a military and strength problem.