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>This is literally how America grew. Except Japan is already "grown." That aside, It's better to let the _overpopulation_ problem in Japan solve itself by let

>This is literally how America grew. Except Japan is already "grown." That aside, It's better to let the _overpopulation_ problem in Japan solve itself by letting birthrates fall than to continue the issue by importing more people. It's not normal to have cities with population densites of 6,158 persons per square kilometer. Yes, there will be an economic price, but it will be short lived (30 years) rather than something that will continue forever.

twelve40 4y ago
and end up in a situation where 80% of the country is over 70 and cannot function? how is that better or short-lived?
- defrost 4y ago
  My father was born in 1935, he's 87 going on 88 and takes a turn on roster once a week to deliver meals on wheels to the old people that struggle to get by. Otherwise he potters on with his meetings on the organisational side of the local bushfire brigade and looking after his 15 km section of a 1,000 kilometre long bushwalking track that runs past not too far away .. when he's not splitting wood, fixing gates, etc. He's not altogether unusual in the area, there's a lot of still active older folk about the place. Can you expand more on how everybody over 70 cannot function?
  - twelve40 4y ago
    that a great data set of 1. In Japan, men are statistically not expected to live past 81, so it's safe to say most of them are in deep decline after 70, a few years away from death. Also, officially after 65 they can stop working, so who is even going to work in the whole country??
    - defrost 4y ago
      Data set of at least 2,000 within the immediate district .. read more carefully and I know the local demographics. People here 'retire' early also - those that stay active with volunter work live longer. Japan has an aging population, it's entirely possible that those that are aged and active can contribute to the care of those that require assistance.
      - twelve40 4y ago
        well, we will find out soon enough. I think it will be pretty bleak and there is no going back unless they let people in.
- Vt71fcAqt7 4y ago
  Short lived because the population will decline until it reaches a sustainable level. Lets say 30-40 years.
  - twelve40 4y ago
    how can the population possibly reach "sustainable" level (not sure what this word means in this context, im assuming non-decreasing?), when the fertility rate today is 1.34 (need 2.1) and plummeting? It's going to get worse the more old people they have, because old people can't have children. When the whole country is old, there will be no children, because who's going to make them, even if they have an odd sudden change of heart?
    - Vt71fcAqt7 4y ago
      The old people die. The population rerurns to 2.1. Do you really think it will continue to go down forever? Do you not see the increadible overpopulation and housing costs in Japanese cities as the cause of low fertility? Why do you think there is something inherently "wrong" with Japanese people that can only be solved by foreigners?
wizofaus 4y ago
"It's not normal to have cities with population densites of 6,158 persons per square kilometer" It's pretty normal for those who live in such places, and not really significantly more "unnatural" compared to sorts of social arrangements we evolved with over 100s of 1000s of years than, say, suburban style living where each nuclear family is significantly isolated from the next and there's no practical way of getting around other than by motorised vehicles. I wonder what total % of the human population these days do live at densities over 5k/sq. km. - would be a non-negligible amount at least (China has a number of cities with significant metro areas that qualify), and if you lower the bar to 3k/sq. km, it'd quite possibly be a significant fraction, maybe even more than 10% of all humans? The only actual stat I could find is that "apartments accounted for 36.3% of all households globally in 2013". Oh and Japan's population density overall is a bit over 300 per sq. km., so there's plenty of opportunities for those choosing to live in much denser parts of major cities to avoid it if they wanted to.
- Vt71fcAqt7 4y ago
  So you don't think overpopulation has anything to do with falling birth rates? Do you think Japan will just continue to have low birth rates forever?
  - wizofaus 4y ago
    It's possibly a contributing factor, but Japanese families are quite accustomed to the idea that their kids will grow up in what many of us in less-densely populated Western countries would consider uncomfortably small spaces. I'm not going to make any predictions about "forever", but unless they start ramping up immigration and allowing in those from cultures where having larger families is more of a priority, I doubt it's going up any time soon.
    - Vt71fcAqt7 4y ago
      There are people who live in "apartments" in Tokyo smaller than the average American bathroom. It's not normal, there are no two ways about it.

twelve40 4y ago

and end up in a situation where 80% of the country is over 70 and cannot function? how is that better or short-lived?

defrost 4y ago
My father was born in 1935, he's 87 going on 88 and takes a turn on roster once a week to deliver meals on wheels to the old people that struggle to get by. Otherwise he potters on with his meetings on the organisational side of the local bushfire brigade and looking after his 15 km section of a 1,000 kilometre long bushwalking track that runs past not too far away .. when he's not splitting wood, fixing gates, etc. He's not altogether unusual in the area, there's a lot of still active older folk about the place. Can you expand more on how everybody over 70 cannot function?
- twelve40 4y ago
  that a great data set of 1. In Japan, men are statistically not expected to live past 81, so it's safe to say most of them are in deep decline after 70, a few years away from death. Also, officially after 65 they can stop working, so who is even going to work in the whole country??
  - defrost 4y ago
    Data set of at least 2,000 within the immediate district .. read more carefully and I know the local demographics. People here 'retire' early also - those that stay active with volunter work live longer. Japan has an aging population, it's entirely possible that those that are aged and active can contribute to the care of those that require assistance.
    - twelve40 4y ago
      well, we will find out soon enough. I think it will be pretty bleak and there is no going back unless they let people in.
Vt71fcAqt7 4y ago
Short lived because the population will decline until it reaches a sustainable level. Lets say 30-40 years.
- twelve40 4y ago
  how can the population possibly reach "sustainable" level (not sure what this word means in this context, im assuming non-decreasing?), when the fertility rate today is 1.34 (need 2.1) and plummeting? It's going to get worse the more old people they have, because old people can't have children. When the whole country is old, there will be no children, because who's going to make them, even if they have an odd sudden change of heart?
  - Vt71fcAqt7 4y ago
    The old people die. The population rerurns to 2.1. Do you really think it will continue to go down forever? Do you not see the increadible overpopulation and housing costs in Japanese cities as the cause of low fertility? Why do you think there is something inherently "wrong" with Japanese people that can only be solved by foreigners?

wizofaus 4y ago

"It's not normal to have cities with population densites of 6,158 persons per square kilometer" It's pretty normal for those who live in such places, and not really significantly more "unnatural" compared to sorts of social arrangements we evolved with over 100s of 1000s of years than, say, suburban style living where each nuclear family is significantly isolated from the next and there's no practical way of getting around other than by motorised vehicles. I wonder what total % of the human population these days do live at densities over 5k/sq. km. - would be a non-negligible amount at least (China has a number of cities with significant metro areas that qualify), and if you lower the bar to 3k/sq. km, it'd quite possibly be a significant fraction, maybe even more than 10% of all humans? The only actual stat I could find is that "apartments accounted for 36.3% of all households globally in 2013". Oh and Japan's population density overall is a bit over 300 per sq. km., so there's plenty of opportunities for those choosing to live in much denser parts of major cities to avoid it if they wanted to.

Vt71fcAqt7 4y ago
So you don't think overpopulation has anything to do with falling birth rates? Do you think Japan will just continue to have low birth rates forever?
- wizofaus 4y ago
  It's possibly a contributing factor, but Japanese families are quite accustomed to the idea that their kids will grow up in what many of us in less-densely populated Western countries would consider uncomfortably small spaces. I'm not going to make any predictions about "forever", but unless they start ramping up immigration and allowing in those from cultures where having larger families is more of a priority, I doubt it's going up any time soon.
  - Vt71fcAqt7 4y ago
    There are people who live in "apartments" in Tokyo smaller than the average American bathroom. It's not normal, there are no two ways about it.