I think there are inevitable outcomes we can predict early on which are not sensitive to these considerations. You might think I’m doing a ton of guessing and h

I think there are inevitable outcomes we can predict early on which are not sensitive to these considerations. You might think I’m doing a ton of guessing and hindsight reasoning, but I do want to at least say one of the principle characters in Foundation is someone thinking sociologically/cosmologically on 30,000 year scales. He wants minimize the future inevitable cluster collapse of the galaxy. He knows it’s unavoidable in the future, that space is subject to certain governing processes which will drive all starting points to the same collapse. At best he can minimize. By a magnitude of 1 or 2. The Fermi paradox can be outmoded or not really relevant at these scales. I avoided raising any particular outcomes other than the one thing which seems inevitable, the cluster-outlier dynamic. It’s weird this reasoning exists, or it was at least interesting to Asmiov imo. I think he found most interesting that a few distant inevitabilities can be known, and space-wise those relate to the cluster/very very few outliers. And I’m pretty sure there were aliens (The M**). Asimov was both relying on human sociology and history AND taking that to the largest backdrop. Like only needing a slice (statistics, modeling, or selective deep-thinking even) of something deep gain to gain immense wisdom about the future. That was the most interesting thing about the character who set the whole story in motion at least imo. Even the initiating character, The M**, and counter forces could not disrupt the course…No planet perpetually hidden, no stopping perpetual clustering…(sorry for spoilers)