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> A transfer to EV will not be practical for all current fossil fuel vehicles But we can transfer most of them to EVs, including nearly the entire light duty v

by danans 4y ago

> A transfer to EV will not be practical for all current fossil fuel vehicles But we can transfer most of them to EVs, including nearly the entire light duty vehicle fleet and short haul trucking, which is probably good enough. There will always be niche cases for ICE vehicles, like driving across Siberia, or military vehicles. But the vast majority can be electrified. Flight is a different story, perhaps hydrogen will be a viable path there.

runarberg 4y ago
> But we can transfer most of them to EVs, including nearly the entire light duty vehicle fleet and short haul trucking. No we can’t. We don’t have the industrial manufacturing capability. Not even by a long shot. And even if we did, we don’t have enough minded minerals to supply the manufactures, and even if we did, we don’t have enough electrical infrastructure to charge all the electric cars. Note this also applies to hydrogen, and even if we had both, each technology relieving the stress on the manufacturing capability of the other, then we’d still need the infrastructure capable of supplying to both. The best path forward for immediate success is public transit, using whichever technology is available (hydrogen, battery, overhead wires, diesel, whatever).
- danans 4y ago
  > No we can’t. We don’t have the industrial manufacturing capability. Not even by a long shot. And even if we did, we don’t have enough minded minerals to supply the manufactures, and even if we did, we don’t have enough electrical infrastructure to charge all the electric cars. We don't have it today, but none that it is out of reach within a decade or two. Also, EV manufacturing is strictly less complicated than ICE manufacturing (as many engine parts suppliers are discovering). That's part of the reason you see so many EV startups (Aptera, Canoo, Lightyear, Rivian, Fisker) able to bootstrap vehicle manufacturing. That hasn't happened since the days of Preston Tucker. The claim about never having the electrical infrastructure is similarly unfounded. We don't have the infrastructure for all 100M passenger cars in the US to switch to electric today, but with enough time we can certainly evolve the grid to not only charge them, but also utilize them for the purpose of grid stabilization. > The best path forward for immediate success is public transit, using whichever technology is available (hydrogen, battery, overhead wires, diesel, whatever). I agree that public transit is the ideal - and follow through by being a daily public transit rider myself. We absolutely should be providing better alternatives to individual car ownership, but that won't happen overnight, and it frankly requires a cultural change in much of the US that is a generational project. We can't make the perfect the enemy of the good, so in the meantime, we need to evolve the current paradigm - passenger cars - away from ICEs.
  - runarberg 4y ago
    I don’t think we have a decade or two. We are already at 1.2°C and over 420 PPM CO2. We are already witnessing one of the warmest summers ever despite there being a la niña year. We can’t afford the luxury of a generational shift, and we can’t afford to wait for the production capabilities of electric cars to catch up to demand. We simply have to take what we have and implement it with money and policy. The alternative is a total disasters, what is already a disaster but infinitely worse. And what we have is a tiny bit of electric battery cars (even fewer hydrogen cars) and a lot of buses and trains.

by danans 4y ago

runarberg 4y ago

> But we can transfer most of them to EVs, including nearly the entire light duty vehicle fleet and short haul trucking. No we can’t. We don’t have the industrial manufacturing capability. Not even by a long shot. And even if we did, we don’t have enough minded minerals to supply the manufactures, and even if we did, we don’t have enough electrical infrastructure to charge all the electric cars. Note this also applies to hydrogen, and even if we had both, each technology relieving the stress on the manufacturing capability of the other, then we’d still need the infrastructure capable of supplying to both. The best path forward for immediate success is public transit, using whichever technology is available (hydrogen, battery, overhead wires, diesel, whatever).

danans 4y ago
> No we can’t. We don’t have the industrial manufacturing capability. Not even by a long shot. And even if we did, we don’t have enough minded minerals to supply the manufactures, and even if we did, we don’t have enough electrical infrastructure to charge all the electric cars. We don't have it today, but none that it is out of reach within a decade or two. Also, EV manufacturing is strictly less complicated than ICE manufacturing (as many engine parts suppliers are discovering). That's part of the reason you see so many EV startups (Aptera, Canoo, Lightyear, Rivian, Fisker) able to bootstrap vehicle manufacturing. That hasn't happened since the days of Preston Tucker. The claim about never having the electrical infrastructure is similarly unfounded. We don't have the infrastructure for all 100M passenger cars in the US to switch to electric today, but with enough time we can certainly evolve the grid to not only charge them, but also utilize them for the purpose of grid stabilization. > The best path forward for immediate success is public transit, using whichever technology is available (hydrogen, battery, overhead wires, diesel, whatever). I agree that public transit is the ideal - and follow through by being a daily public transit rider myself. We absolutely should be providing better alternatives to individual car ownership, but that won't happen overnight, and it frankly requires a cultural change in much of the US that is a generational project. We can't make the perfect the enemy of the good, so in the meantime, we need to evolve the current paradigm - passenger cars - away from ICEs.
- runarberg 4y ago
  I don’t think we have a decade or two. We are already at 1.2°C and over 420 PPM CO2. We are already witnessing one of the warmest summers ever despite there being a la niña year. We can’t afford the luxury of a generational shift, and we can’t afford to wait for the production capabilities of electric cars to catch up to demand. We simply have to take what we have and implement it with money and policy. The alternative is a total disasters, what is already a disaster but infinitely worse. And what we have is a tiny bit of electric battery cars (even fewer hydrogen cars) and a lot of buses and trains.