Overconfidence has always been a big problem with deep learning. And in fact, better calibration ends up leading to worse overall performance. So ML models are

Overconfidence has always been a big problem with deep learning. And in fact, better calibration ends up leading to worse overall performance. So ML models are incentivized to be overconfident. To be fair, the same is true of people. See e.g Guo et al, but don't trust their advice about how to improve calibration https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.04599 https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.04599