4 ms·

I give it a one-in-three chance of nuclear war within two years. (I see the US is still sending lots of those new nukes to Europe, instead of holding them at ho

I give it a one-in-three chance of nuclear war within two years. (I see the US is still sending lots of those new nukes to Europe, instead of holding them at home.) I give it an almost complete certainty that we'll have a nuclear exchange within about 5 years. If, perchance, we manage to get five years down the track without that Armageddon then I think we'll manage to get through it without wiping out humanity. Though I doubt very much we'd ever be that lucky.

IAmGraydon 4y ago
Interesting. Can you give us the methodology behind your probability numbers?
- simonblack 4y ago
  The US is under ever-increasing pressure to 'do something' about the losses in the Ukraine War. Especially where there is pressure to remove the US Dollar as the Reserve Currency of the World. Look at that as an 'upward' slope of pressure towards War. The US is declining relative to China in wealth and power. Look at that as a 'downward slope'. Around 2024-2025 is where the inversion between US Power and Chinese power swap over. After that, the US will be less and less inclined to fight China as China will be more likely to win. Put the two slopes together and you get an inverted-'V', with the US under very high pressure to engage in conflict over the next two years while it's still possible for the US to win, but then followed by a lessening in the inclination towards getting its head kicked in after that.
  - IAmGraydon 4y ago
    I think you're on to something, but I don't think it has as much to do with China as you think. What data are you using to suggest that China will surpass US wealth and power by 2024-2025?
    - simonblack 4y ago
      What data are you using to suggest that China will surpass US wealth and power by 2024-2025? It's just ordinary arithmetic. The GDP growth line of the US is a flatter line than the GDP-growth line for China. In cases like this the lower line eventually intersects the upper line and continues higher. China's economy when measured as PPP overtook the US economy about 7 or 8 years back. Then again, The US of 2023 is a 'service economy' which makes its money from non-tangible items rather than the manufacturing economy the US had back in the 1940s and 1950s when the US was at the height of its wealth and power. The country that has the manufacturing strength in 2023 is China. Again, the US of today has a debt of over 30 trillion. It also has inflation of around 8-10%. To bring that under control, the US will have to increase interest rates. But the US can't AFFORD to do that. To raise the interest rates the several percent required to fix inflation means that the US government will be paying out more in interest than it is receiving in taxes. (An interest rate RISE of just 3% means that the EXTRA interest payment for the US government is HIGHER THAN THE WHOLE OF THE DEFENSE BUDGET!) The US is heading for even faster decline relative to China. but I don't think it has as much to do with China as you think. In some ways you're correct. But the US always looks at it that way. The US is caught between two doctrines that force it to look at things that way: the Wolfowitz Doctrine and the Doctrine of US Exceptionalism. Both of those doctrines will not allow any other entity to be more powerful than the US. (Also sometimes called the Thucydides Trap)

IAmGraydon 4y ago

Interesting. Can you give us the methodology behind your probability numbers?

simonblack 4y ago
The US is under ever-increasing pressure to 'do something' about the losses in the Ukraine War. Especially where there is pressure to remove the US Dollar as the Reserve Currency of the World. Look at that as an 'upward' slope of pressure towards War. The US is declining relative to China in wealth and power. Look at that as a 'downward slope'. Around 2024-2025 is where the inversion between US Power and Chinese power swap over. After that, the US will be less and less inclined to fight China as China will be more likely to win. Put the two slopes together and you get an inverted-'V', with the US under very high pressure to engage in conflict over the next two years while it's still possible for the US to win, but then followed by a lessening in the inclination towards getting its head kicked in after that.
- IAmGraydon 4y ago
  I think you're on to something, but I don't think it has as much to do with China as you think. What data are you using to suggest that China will surpass US wealth and power by 2024-2025?
  - simonblack 4y ago
    What data are you using to suggest that China will surpass US wealth and power by 2024-2025? It's just ordinary arithmetic. The GDP growth line of the US is a flatter line than the GDP-growth line for China. In cases like this the lower line eventually intersects the upper line and continues higher. China's economy when measured as PPP overtook the US economy about 7 or 8 years back. Then again, The US of 2023 is a 'service economy' which makes its money from non-tangible items rather than the manufacturing economy the US had back in the 1940s and 1950s when the US was at the height of its wealth and power. The country that has the manufacturing strength in 2023 is China. Again, the US of today has a debt of over 30 trillion. It also has inflation of around 8-10%. To bring that under control, the US will have to increase interest rates. But the US can't AFFORD to do that. To raise the interest rates the several percent required to fix inflation means that the US government will be paying out more in interest than it is receiving in taxes. (An interest rate RISE of just 3% means that the EXTRA interest payment for the US government is HIGHER THAN THE WHOLE OF THE DEFENSE BUDGET!) The US is heading for even faster decline relative to China. but I don't think it has as much to do with China as you think. In some ways you're correct. But the US always looks at it that way. The US is caught between two doctrines that force it to look at things that way: the Wolfowitz Doctrine and the Doctrine of US Exceptionalism. Both of those doctrines will not allow any other entity to be more powerful than the US. (Also sometimes called the Thucydides Trap)