4 ms·

Amazing when a rival / competitor start exceeding them how now is the time for caution...

by phpisthebest 4y ago

hnarayanan 4y ago
Exactly what I came to say.
v3ss0n 4y ago
Elon musk cautioned before leaving them too.
- hbarka 4y ago
  Let’s stop this meme before Elon starts saying he invented OpenAI. He donated money into the OpenAI charity. Jeff Bezos invested $250,000 in Google back in 1998 but he doesn’t try to claim to be a Google founder.
lossolo 4y ago
> exceeding OpenAI may have an advantage in terms of publicity and open access to their models, but technologically, Google has better models in-house. Many of the models used by OpenAI are based on work at Google and their papers, and Google has been able to achieve better performance months before OpenAI. For more information on Google's progress in 2022, refer to this summary on the Google Research blog, which is accessible to non-technical readers: https://ai.googleblog.com/2023/01/google-research-2022-beyond-language.html https://ai.googleblog.com/2023/01/google-research-2022-beyon..."
- pharmakom 4y ago
  Why are Microsoft investing so much in Open AI when they are a similar research powerhouse? I think Open AI must have something.
  - jddj 4y ago
    Similarly, if Google (and Googlers) have had access to this or better for some time, where is the step change in productivity / innovation / technology?
    - xyzzy123 4y ago
      I think it's organisational incentives, not tech per se. TL:DR; Brand risk, and the FAANGs are not as hungry. Google and MSFT are wary of deploying tech that gets caught saying super racist or nazi stuff (MSFT have been badly burned before) and they already have big income streams, they didn't feel strong pressure to "ship". OpenAI has less to lose, more to gain and people are more tolerant of janky cutting edge products dressed in "startup" branding.
    - lossolo 4y ago
      It's in the article I linked. They deployed models similar to Codex, like LLM, and saw a small boost in productivity. They have also deployed many other models internally.
    - pharmakom 4y ago
      I think LLM are not very useful yet. I think they will be, but right now they are wrong far too often.
  - super256 4y ago
    > I think Open AI must have something They have a projection of $200M revenue in 2023 and $1bn in 2024. https://www.reuters.com/business/chatgpt-owner-openai-projects-1-billion-revenue-by-2024-sources-2022-12-15/ https://www.reuters.com/business/chatgpt-owner-openai-projec...
- metadat 4y ago
  > .. and open access to their models .. Huh? The only thing open about openai is the name. Everything else is proprietary and tightly locked down.
  - lossolo 4y ago
    Open access doesn't mean open source. You have access to models through their APIs, you don't have any access to similar Google models.
    - 93po 4y ago
      *limited access
minzi 4y ago
I doubt they are truly exceeding them. At least not by a margin that could not be closed. If you actually read the article, it mentions that Deepmind has their own chatbot, but wants to have citation in place before releasing it. In my opinion, that is the safe thing to do. Also my opinion, but I would argue that AlphaFold is much more impressive and significant for humanity than chatGPT. I also think that openAI could not reproduce AlphaFold with the same ease that Deepmind could reproduce chatGPT.
- phpisthebest 4y ago
  Well Internally it was reported a couple weeks after ChatGPT's announcement and release that google has a "Code Red" meeting about it, and at that time it was reported that ChatGPT was significantly better than what Google had. Now it is known how accurate that was, or if even internally to Google they communicate well enough to know that all teams are doing or capable of. >>Also my opinion, but I would argue that AlphaFold is much more impressive and significant for humanity than chatGPT. I think that is short sighted and biased. That is in some ways comparing Vaccine technology to social media, and I would be hard pressed to say what was more "significant for humanity"
  - zaptrem 4y ago
    It was less that ChatGPT is better than LaMDA and more that the tech everyone was keeping away from society "for its own good" had been released and people were realizing it could finally threaten Search.
  - UncleMeat 4y ago
    And this is probably not true, since "Code Red" has a very specific meaning internally that doesn't apply here. The various codes cover various different timelines. "Strategic risk to the company over a period of months or years" isn't described as "Code Red."
    - arcanus 4y ago
      > And this is probably not true, since "Code Red" has a very specific meaning internally that doesn't apply here Don't be intentionally vague. What is a 'code red'?
hackerlight 4y ago
Demis has had this tone for many years.

Amazing when a rival / competitor start exceeding them how now is the time for caution...

hnarayanan 4y ago

Exactly what I came to say.

v3ss0n 4y ago

Elon musk cautioned before leaving them too.

hbarka 4y ago
Let’s stop this meme before Elon starts saying he invented OpenAI. He donated money into the OpenAI charity. Jeff Bezos invested $250,000 in Google back in 1998 but he doesn’t try to claim to be a Google founder.

lossolo 4y ago

> exceeding OpenAI may have an advantage in terms of publicity and open access to their models, but technologically, Google has better models in-house. Many of the models used by OpenAI are based on work at Google and their papers, and Google has been able to achieve better performance months before OpenAI. For more information on Google's progress in 2022, refer to this summary on the Google Research blog, which is accessible to non-technical readers: https://ai.googleblog.com/2023/01/google-research-2022-beyond-language.html https://ai.googleblog.com/2023/01/google-research-2022-beyon..."

pharmakom 4y ago
Why are Microsoft investing so much in Open AI when they are a similar research powerhouse? I think Open AI must have something.
- jddj 4y ago
  Similarly, if Google (and Googlers) have had access to this or better for some time, where is the step change in productivity / innovation / technology?
  - xyzzy123 4y ago
    I think it's organisational incentives, not tech per se. TL:DR; Brand risk, and the FAANGs are not as hungry. Google and MSFT are wary of deploying tech that gets caught saying super racist or nazi stuff (MSFT have been badly burned before) and they already have big income streams, they didn't feel strong pressure to "ship". OpenAI has less to lose, more to gain and people are more tolerant of janky cutting edge products dressed in "startup" branding.
  - lossolo 4y ago
    It's in the article I linked. They deployed models similar to Codex, like LLM, and saw a small boost in productivity. They have also deployed many other models internally.
  - pharmakom 4y ago
    I think LLM are not very useful yet. I think they will be, but right now they are wrong far too often.
- super256 4y ago
  > I think Open AI must have something They have a projection of $200M revenue in 2023 and $1bn in 2024. https://www.reuters.com/business/chatgpt-owner-openai-projects-1-billion-revenue-by-2024-sources-2022-12-15/ https://www.reuters.com/business/chatgpt-owner-openai-projec...
metadat 4y ago
> .. and open access to their models .. Huh? The only thing open about openai is the name. Everything else is proprietary and tightly locked down.
- lossolo 4y ago
  Open access doesn't mean open source. You have access to models through their APIs, you don't have any access to similar Google models.
  - 93po 4y ago
    *limited access

minzi 4y ago

I doubt they are truly exceeding them. At least not by a margin that could not be closed. If you actually read the article, it mentions that Deepmind has their own chatbot, but wants to have citation in place before releasing it. In my opinion, that is the safe thing to do. Also my opinion, but I would argue that AlphaFold is much more impressive and significant for humanity than chatGPT. I also think that openAI could not reproduce AlphaFold with the same ease that Deepmind could reproduce chatGPT.

phpisthebest 4y ago
Well Internally it was reported a couple weeks after ChatGPT's announcement and release that google has a "Code Red" meeting about it, and at that time it was reported that ChatGPT was significantly better than what Google had. Now it is known how accurate that was, or if even internally to Google they communicate well enough to know that all teams are doing or capable of. >>Also my opinion, but I would argue that AlphaFold is much more impressive and significant for humanity than chatGPT. I think that is short sighted and biased. That is in some ways comparing Vaccine technology to social media, and I would be hard pressed to say what was more "significant for humanity"
- zaptrem 4y ago
  It was less that ChatGPT is better than LaMDA and more that the tech everyone was keeping away from society "for its own good" had been released and people were realizing it could finally threaten Search.
- UncleMeat 4y ago
  And this is probably not true, since "Code Red" has a very specific meaning internally that doesn't apply here. The various codes cover various different timelines. "Strategic risk to the company over a period of months or years" isn't described as "Code Red."
  - arcanus 4y ago
    > And this is probably not true, since "Code Red" has a very specific meaning internally that doesn't apply here Don't be intentionally vague. What is a 'code red'?

hackerlight 4y ago

Demis has had this tone for many years.