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> But his points are almost exclusively self driving. Where’s the discussion of battery tech? In 2018, "everyone" was saying perfect self-driving was only a fe

> But his points are almost exclusively self driving. Where’s the discussion of battery tech? In 2018, "everyone" was saying perfect self-driving was only a few years away (I recall a highly-rated HN comment saying humans would likely be banned from roads by 2025), and nobody was interested in battery tech.

AtlasBarfed 4y ago
I think we would have automated intercity highway driving if all the companies weren't chasing drive thru taco bell self driving. Some convergent infrastructure (sensors, warning network, etc) and route specific learning would have helped. Oh well. I mean you could have a "dial a remote operator if uncertainty threshold reached" dropouts, better pull over spots or shoulders , etc.
- morelisp 4y ago
  > intercity... infrastructure (sensors, warning network, etc) and route specific learning... You could also just build trains, like much of the rest of the world.
  - ghaff 4y ago
    There are a lot of scenarios where it's low volume/you want a car at the other end/you're not going to a city center/etc. I don't necessarily disagree that it would be nice if there were better passenger train service in the US but most of the long distance highway driving I do wouldn't be remotely served by train. Plenty of people drive cars in Europe too.
Animats 4y ago
> In 2018, "everyone" was saying perfect self-driving was only a few years away. Yes. Having been involved in the DARPA Grand Challenge 20 years ago, I didn't think it would take this long. I thought we'd at least have automated rental car pick-up and return at airports by now. At least lots of automated shuttle buses on campuses and at airports. Waymo is getting close.[1] It's worth looking at the accident reports and news stories with complaints about Waymo. People complain about Waymo cars clogging their street, which is happening because SF marked a few nearby streets as "slow streets", and Waymo's planner is optimizing routes around them. There's a recent news story where a Waymo car reached a construction trench in a street and stopped. Didn't go into the trench. Someone had to intervene remotely to back it out of the construction area. There was a collision on Geary Boulevard where a Waymo vehicle detected a speeding car during a left turn and stopped, rather than accelerating to escape. That's their worse accident so far, and the other driver was at fault. There are not stories about Waymo cars making sudden lane changes and causing multi-car collisions. [1] https://waymo.com/sf/ https://waymo.com/sf/ [2] https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/self-driving-car-stops-at-sf-construction-site-waymo-responds/ https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/self-driving-car-stops-a...
- boulos 4y ago
  Disclosure: I work for Waymo. > There was a collision on Geary Boulevard where a Waymo vehicle detected a speeding car during a left turn and stopped, rather than accelerating to escape. That's their worse accident so far, and the other driver was at fault. You're thinking of Cruise.
  - Animats 4y ago
    Right, that was Cruise.[1] The most common single problem with serious autonomous vehicles right now is being rear-ended by human vehicles while cautiously entering intersections. The usual sequence of events is, autonomous vehicle approaches intersection where the view of the cross street is obstructed, autonomous vehicle starts to enter intersection, detects cross traffic, stops, and is rear-ended. There are dozens of those in the California DMV reports. This will probably get better as more vehicles get automatic radar-controlled braking, which is good at preventing low-speed rear-ending. [1] https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/file/cruise_060322-pdf/ https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/file/cruise_060322-pdf/
    - Animats 4y ago
      Possible solution: when an self-driving car is entering a situation where it is likely to stop suddenly, and it is being followed too closely, flash the brake lights rapidly, even though moving forward.
      - ianai 4y ago
        Problem should eventually solve itself when people realize tailgating is illegal and automated cars have them on recorded cameras. Just enforce the already existing laws against wreckless, dangerous driving.

AtlasBarfed 4y ago

I think we would have automated intercity highway driving if all the companies weren't chasing drive thru taco bell self driving. Some convergent infrastructure (sensors, warning network, etc) and route specific learning would have helped. Oh well. I mean you could have a "dial a remote operator if uncertainty threshold reached" dropouts, better pull over spots or shoulders , etc.

morelisp 4y ago
> intercity... infrastructure (sensors, warning network, etc) and route specific learning... You could also just build trains, like much of the rest of the world.
- ghaff 4y ago
  There are a lot of scenarios where it's low volume/you want a car at the other end/you're not going to a city center/etc. I don't necessarily disagree that it would be nice if there were better passenger train service in the US but most of the long distance highway driving I do wouldn't be remotely served by train. Plenty of people drive cars in Europe too.

Animats 4y ago

> In 2018, "everyone" was saying perfect self-driving was only a few years away. Yes. Having been involved in the DARPA Grand Challenge 20 years ago, I didn't think it would take this long. I thought we'd at least have automated rental car pick-up and return at airports by now. At least lots of automated shuttle buses on campuses and at airports. Waymo is getting close.[1] It's worth looking at the accident reports and news stories with complaints about Waymo. People complain about Waymo cars clogging their street, which is happening because SF marked a few nearby streets as "slow streets", and Waymo's planner is optimizing routes around them. There's a recent news story where a Waymo car reached a construction trench in a street and stopped. Didn't go into the trench. Someone had to intervene remotely to back it out of the construction area. There was a collision on Geary Boulevard where a Waymo vehicle detected a speeding car during a left turn and stopped, rather than accelerating to escape. That's their worse accident so far, and the other driver was at fault. There are not stories about Waymo cars making sudden lane changes and causing multi-car collisions. [1] https://waymo.com/sf/ https://waymo.com/sf/ [2] https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/self-driving-car-stops-at-sf-construction-site-waymo-responds/ https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/self-driving-car-stops-a...

boulos 4y ago
Disclosure: I work for Waymo. > There was a collision on Geary Boulevard where a Waymo vehicle detected a speeding car during a left turn and stopped, rather than accelerating to escape. That's their worse accident so far, and the other driver was at fault. You're thinking of Cruise.
- Animats 4y ago
  Right, that was Cruise.[1] The most common single problem with serious autonomous vehicles right now is being rear-ended by human vehicles while cautiously entering intersections. The usual sequence of events is, autonomous vehicle approaches intersection where the view of the cross street is obstructed, autonomous vehicle starts to enter intersection, detects cross traffic, stops, and is rear-ended. There are dozens of those in the California DMV reports. This will probably get better as more vehicles get automatic radar-controlled braking, which is good at preventing low-speed rear-ending. [1] https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/file/cruise_060322-pdf/ https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/file/cruise_060322-pdf/
  - Animats 4y ago
    Possible solution: when an self-driving car is entering a situation where it is likely to stop suddenly, and it is being followed too closely, flash the brake lights rapidly, even though moving forward.
    - ianai 4y ago
      Problem should eventually solve itself when people realize tailgating is illegal and automated cars have them on recorded cameras. Just enforce the already existing laws against wreckless, dangerous driving.